唐朝中期西州的市场经济和丝路贸易

文章主要利用吐鲁番出土文书,结合历史记载,探讨了唐朝中期西州市场的规模、制度、商品种类、价格,同时论述了西州在"丝绸之路"贸易上的地位和作用。

“均平”的学说形成与制度设计

先秦诸子皆有论"均"之言,道家多论天道之"均",儒家、墨家多论社会之"均",前者强调均平,后者强调均等。从先秦制度观之,社会之"均"主要显现在政事之均、食货之均。着眼于社会学考量的政事之均,其要点是"以礼均施";着眼于经济学考量的食货之均,其要点是"土均""均市"。

Impact of correlated private signals on continuous-time insider trading

A model of continuous-time insider trading in which a risk-neutral in-sider possesses two imperfect correlated signals of a risky asset is studied.By conditional expectation theory and filtering theory,we first establish three lemmas:normal corre-lation,equivalent pricing and equivalent profit,which can guarantee to turn our model into a model with insider knowing full information.Then we investigate the impact of the two correlated signals on the market equilibrium consisting of optimal insider trading strategy and semi-strong pricing rule.It shows that in the equilibrium,(1)the market depth is constant over time;(2)if the two noisy signals are not linerly correlated,then all private information of the insider is incorporated into prices in the end while the whole information on the asset value can not incorporated into prices in the end;(3)if the two noisy signals are linear correlated such that the insider can infer the whole information of the asset value,then our model turns into a model with insider knowing full information;(4)if the two noisy signals are the same then the total ex ant profit of the insider is increasing with the noise decreasing,while down to O as the noise going up to infinity;(5)if the two noisy signals are not linear correlated then with one noisy signal fixed,the total ex ante profit of the insider is single-peaked with a unique minimum with respect to the other noisy signal value,and furthermore as the noisy value going to O it gets its maximum,the profit in the case that the real value is observed.

唐代物价管理制度刍议

三贾均市是唐京都诸市令管理商品交易市场货物价格的一项制度,但不仅在京都,而且在全国各地也普遍实行。唐代三贾均市是对前代物价管理制度的沿革与发展,并对后世的价格管理制度产生影响。汉唐宋价格管理制度既相承又各具特色。三贾均市与悬平赃物也有密切的关系,并指出《唐六典》注文的一处有误。

Characteristics of Hg pollution in urban stormwater runoff in Nanjing city, China

In order to assess the mercury Hg pollution in urban stormwater runoff in Nanjing 11 rainfall events in the Maqun region of Nanjing circle expressway were monitored and the events mean concentrations EMC of Hg and the impact of rainfall characteristics on Hg pollution in runoff were analyzed.Results show that the pollution of different Hg species is serious and total Hg THg dissolved Hg HgD and particulate Hg HgP are found to be in the range of 0.173 to 3.347 0.069 to 0.862 and 0.104 to 2.485μg/L respectively.The average EMC value of THg exceeds the Ⅴ class limitation value of Quality standards of surface water environment GB 3838-2002 of China. Hg in runoff mainly exists in particulate form and the concentrations of Hgre 0.250 to 2.821 μg/L are far more than those of Hg0 0.023 to 0.215 μg/L and Hg2＋ 0.026 to 0.359 μg/L . The order of rainfall characteristics impacting on Hg pollution in runoff is dry periods 〉runoff time〉duration of rainfall〉storm intensity〉rainfall.

Passenger flow dynamic assignment model of urban mass transit and its application during interval interrupted operation

In order to find a method which can describe the passenger flow dynamical distribution of urban mass transit during interval interrupted operation,an urban railway network topology model was built based on the travel path dual graph by considering interchange,crowd and congestion.The breadth first valid travel path search algorithm is proposed,and the multipath passenger flow distribution logit model is improved.According to the characteristics of passengers under the interruption condition,the distribution rules of different types of passenger flow are proposed.The method of calculating the aggregation number of station is proposed for the case of insufficient transport capacity.Finally,the passenger flow of Beijing urban mass transit is simulated for the case study.The results show that the relative error of most of transfer passenger flow is below 10%.The proposed model and algorithm can accurately assign the daily passenger flow,which provides a theoretical basis for urban mass transit emergency management and decision.

Forecasting Public Green Area Per Capita in Xi’an City Based on GM (1, 1)

[Objective] To establish the comprehensive evaluation index system of public green area per capita as a quantitative mean of measuring ecological city and livable city. [Method]The GM (1, 1) forecasting model was set up according to statistics of public green area per capita in Xi’an City during 1996 and 2005, on this basis, the development trend of green area per capita in Xi’an City until 2015 were analyzed in case of no any changing factors or conditions. [Result]Grey forecasting model was established as, (t = 0, 1, …, n); model parameters as a = - 0.031 71, u = 4.139 17. After residual error test and posterior-variance-test, the precision of this model is proved fairly good. [Conclusions]According to this model, public green area per capita in Xi’an City will achieve 7.66 m2 by 2015, which is still far away from the livable city index (16 m2 per capita) and should be paid more attention by the local government, the construction of urban green areas should be further enhanced, more vegetations should be cultivated so as to improve the urban green coverage ratio.

Urban Expansion and Its Influencing Factors in Natural Wetland Distribution Area in Fuzhou City,China

This paper principally focuses on land use dynamics,urban expansion and underlying driving forces in the Natural Wetland Distribution Area(NWDA)of Fuzhou City in the southeastern China.Based on time series Landsat TM/ETM+imageries and historical data,relationships between urban land expansion and its influencing factors from 1989 to 2009 were analyzed by using an integrated approach of remote sensing(RS)and geographic information system(GIS)techniques.The results showed that built-up land increased from 151.16 km2in 1989 to 383.76 km 2in 2009. Approximately 64.25%of the newly emerging built-up land was converted from cropland(29.47%),forest and shrub (25.78%),water(3.73%),wetland(4.61%),and bare land(0.66%)during 1989 and 2009.With a remarkable decrease in cropland,the proportion of non-agricultural population increased by 23.6%.Moreover,rapid development of infrastructures,facilities,industrial parks,and urban and rural settlements along the Minjiang River resulted in the eastward and southward expansion of built-up land.Additionally,the growth pattern of built-up land in the NWDA is highly correlated with socio-economic factors,including the gross domestic product(GDP),GDP per capita,and structure of industry.As a result,the observed environmental degradation such as loss of cropland and wetland due to heavy pressure of rapid urbanization have greatly impaired the carrying capacity of city.Thus,in addition to scientific and rational policies towards minimizing the adverse effects of urbanization,coordination between the administrative agencies should be urgently strengthened to balance the conflicts between urban development and ecological conservation to make sure the sustainable land use.

Observed Climate Change in East China during 1961-2007

By using in situ daily observations in East China during 1961-2007 and NCEP reanalysis data, the methods of statistical analyses, urban minus rural and observation minus reanalysis, it is revealed that the observed climate change and surface warming in East China were mainly induced by urbanization. The results show that East China has experienced two warmer periods of 1930s and 1980s in the past century; from 1951 to 2007, the regional mean temperature increased at a rate of 0.14℃ per decade; heat waves happened in urban center more frequently, and local climate showed a warming and dry trend; there was no significant linear trend in regional mean precipitation in the past 50 years. Urbanization was a crucial element for the regional warming; about 44% of the warming was due to heat island effect in the mega city.

Geographical Differences and Influencing Factors of Rural Energy Consumption in Southwest Mountain Areas in China:A Case Study of Zhaotong City

China is a mountainous country,and Southwest mountain areas cover the most mountain areas in China and have the most serious problems.Taking Zhaotong city as the study area,based on 902 rural household questionnaires of 11 villages in 2 counties and Tobit model,this paper analyzes the geographical differences and influencing factors of energy consumption for non-production purposes of rural households living in different terrain conditions.This research finds that:(1) Coal takes up the main part of energy consumption in valley areas and coal consumption is mainly affected by per capita cultivated land area,household income,proportion of rural household energy expenditure in total expenditure,coal price,and family population size.Firewood takes up the main part of energy consumption in high mountain areas and firewood consumption is mainly affected by per capita firewood forest area,distance to purchase coal,household income,electricity price,and coal price.(2) Only when the distance is greater than 20 kilometers,that is the average distance of rural households living in middle mountain areas(1,600m^1,800m) to purchase coal,the transportation condition has a significant impact on coal consumption.(3) In high mountain areas,prices of coal and electricity are the main factors influencing energy consumption choice of rural households.Too high prices of coal and electricity would to some extent lead rural households to choose firewood as the main energy consumption type.Compared to coal,rural households prefer to choose electricity.

The Role of China's High-Tech Zones in Its Regional Economic Development

National high-tech industrial development zones represent a major strategy of the Chinese government in developing high-tech industries and spurring regional economic growth. The effect of this policy is yet to be proven. Based on the panel data of 283 Chinese cities between 1984 and 2012, this paper investigates the effect of high-tech zones on regional economic development. Empirical results suggest that first, national hightech zones have remarkably enhanced regional GDP and per capita GDP growth, and this conclusion still holds true after multiple rounds of robustness test; second, the economic effect of national high-tech zones is subject to diminishing marginal return and compared with higher-tier cities, lower-tier cities benefited more from the creation of national hightech zones. This paper concludes that national high-tech zones where special policies are experimented and offered not only drive economic development but, if properly distributed across regions, may help reduce regional economic disparities as well. The results of this study provide important implications for the future distribution of national high-tech zones and the creation of other relevant policies.

Effectiveness of Subway Advertising in Hong Kong

Pedestrians intercepted near the exits of a subway station in downtown Hong Kong were surveyed using a questionnaire and quota sampling in October 2012. The survey sampled 408 residents and tourists aged 16 and above. The awareness of the 16 ads. ranged from 18 to 80 percent with an average 43.5 percent. The layouts of the two subway ads. received highest awareness were focused and had a clear distinction between foreground and background. Average ad awareness was comparable to that reported in two similar studies of subway ads. conducted in the 1990s. Average ad awareness of subway ads. was higher than that of outdoor advertising measured using similar methodology in 2010s. Respondents demonstrated positive attitudes toward subway advertising, and reported that subway ads. that drew their attention were those with creative ideas, vivid colors, and large-than-life size execution.

Urban Three-dimensional Expansion and Its Driving Forces——A Case Study of Shanghai,China

Urban expansion is a phenomenon of urban space increase,and an important measuring index of the process of urbanization.Taking Shanghai as an example,the changes of urban average height and built-up area were studied to represent city's vertical and horizontal increases respectively,and statistical methods were used to analyze the driving forces of urban expansion.The research drew following conclusions:1) The urban expansion process of Shanghai from 1985 to 2006 had a clear periodic feature,and could be divided into three stages:vertical expansion in dominance,coordinated vertical and horizontal expansion,and horizontal expansion in dominance.2) The average height and quantity of buildings in core city were significantly bigger than those in suburbs,but the changing speed of the latter was faster.And 3) urbanization process was the major driving force for the city's horizontal expansion,while industrial structure improvement was the key driving factor for the vertical expansion.Those two driving forces were simultaneously affected by city's political factors.

Factor Price Distortion and Conseq uential A dverse Wealth Transfers in China

As critical piece of China＇s gradualist economic transition, domestic price reform still faces major challenges. In particular, factor price, which is still tightlycontrolled and not market-based, is lower than market equilibrium price. Factor price distortion not only reduces market efficiency but also affects wealth distribution. Subsequent wealth transfer has, over the past ten to fifieen years, created a powerful vested interests and spawned social resentment, both of which may constitute major hazards in China＇s future reform and development. Keeping in mind that China will have to address factor price distortion in its next step of reform, this paper takes stock of China＇s journey toward price rejorm; examines the relationship among factor price distortion, previous economic growth, and policy; and estimates＇ the size of resulting wealth transfer.

The Pork Consumption Characteristics of Chinese Urban Residents： The Outlook for 2020

China has the highest pork consumption in the world. As incomes increase and the urbanization process accelerates, the consumption of pork by Chinese residents will continue to grow. This paper studies the proportion of the household pork consumption account and examines the use of apparent pork consumption as a bridge that links consumption and production. Based on the pork consumption of urban and rural residents from 2000 to 2012, combined with per capita income, the total population and the rate of urbanization, we can analyse China＇s market demand in the pork trade for 2020, which will be useful for countries who are interested in potential trade with China. The research shows two important findings： First, with the per capita income of urban residents increasing, their per capita pork consumption is also on the rise, and as increasing numbers of rural residents move to urban areas with the acceleration of urbanization in China, the urban areas will be the most important pork market in the future. Secondly, the per capita pork consumption of rural residents will still be lower than that of urban residents in 2020, so there will be more room for growth in pork consumption in rural areas.

Humble Opinions on the Relationship between the Percentage of Urban Residents in an Urban Region and the Economic Status in This Region in China

It is a fact that in U.S. the immigration between rural areas and city areas is free, but in China this type of immigration is restricted by HUKOU system (Hukou, namely the household registration system, was designed to control rural-urban in China). All of those national policies in city areas are much better than those in rural areas, so those corresponding differences bring about great discrepancy of the economic status (mainly including GDP per person and income per resident) between rural and city areas in the same urban region, especially in different urban re- gions because the percentage of urban residents in those urban regions is in-equable. The present paper mainly researches the topic of relationship between the percentage of urban residents and the economic status in an urban region in China, including the relationship between the economic and the political functions of a settlement in China during the process of urbanization.

The Information Risk in the Latest Crisis： A Driver or a Driven Factor for Global Financial Markets Equilibrium？

The latest financial crisis has been impressive for strength, impact, duration, and reduced efficacy of the economic and financial policies adopted by the authorities. We use an original information risk model to contribute to the analysis of the crisis and to suggest some approaches for a possible early diagnosis. Using data referred to the three main financial markets and comparing the latest crisis with the previous one and with long-term quantitative evidence, we find out that the 2007-2009 crisis was very different in the information risk quality. That gap affected the market risk aversion and its equilibrium, reducing the efficacy of the authorities＇ intervention tools mainly based on payoff risk control and efficient market restoration. Since information risk is an endogenous element of the market dynamics that can be independent form contingent levels of market efficiency. Drivers of information risk in the European Markets differed strongly from the US and Japanese ones; that is why some global decisions had low impact while opportunities of local intervention were missed.

Urbanization-related warming in local temperature records:a review

There have long been arguments about the impact of urbanization on local meteorological observations. This letter reviews up-to-date studies of the urbanization-related warming in the observed land surface air temperature series in China. Many previous studies have suggested that, over the past few decades, the local warming due to urbanization could have been about 0.1 °C/10 yr, or even larger. However, based on recently developed homogenized temperature records, the estimated urban bias is smaller. Major uncertainties arise from either the data quality or the techniques used to estimate the urbanization effect. A key example is the ‘observationminus-reanalysis＇ method, which tends to overestimate the urban signal in this region, partly due to systematic bias in the multi-decadal variability of surface air temperature in the reanalysis data. It is expected that improved numerical modeling with high-resolution information regarding the changing land surface in the region will help to further understand and quantify the effect of urbanization in local temperature records.

Analyzing and Forecasting Climate Change in Harbin City,Northeast China

Based on sounding data from 1975 to 2005 and TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in 1989, 2001 and 2007, the climate changes in Harbin City, Northeast China in recent 30 years were analyzed and forecasted. Results show that in the lower troposphere the meridional wind speed and mean annual wind speed decrease, and in the lower stratosphere the temperature decreases while the meridional wind speed increases significantly. In the study area, the climate is becoming warmer and wetter in the middle lower troposphere. The expansion of urban area has great effects on the surface air temperature and the wind speed, leading to the increase of the surface air temperature, the decrease of the surface wind speed, and the increase of the area of urban high temperature zone. The quantitative equations have been established among the surface air temperature, the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and the specific humidity (the water vapor content). It is predicted that the future increasing rate of the surface air temperature is 0.85℃/10yr if emission concentration of CO2 remains unchanged; if emission concentration of CO2 decreases to 75%, 50% and 25%, respectively, the surface air temperature will increase 0.65℃/10yr, 0.46℃/10yr and 0.27℃/10yr, respectively. The rise of the surface air temperature in the study area is higher than that of the global mean temperature forecasted by IPCC.

Spatial Pattern Evolution and Casual Analysis of County Level Economy in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration, China

In order to evaluate whether or not the county units′ economy in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan(Chang-Zhu-Tan) Urban Agglomeration was growing as expected, this study analyzed the spatial economy pattern at county-level by using the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA) method. In this process, the global Moran′s I and local Getis-Ord G*i indexes were employed to analyze indicators including per capita GDP and three industrials(i.e. primary, secondary and tertiary industry) from 2000 to 2010. The results show that: 1) the county units′ economy in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration has exhibited a strong spatial autocorrelation and an accelerated integration trend since 2008(Moran′ s I increased from 0.26 to 0.56); 2) there is a significant difference in economy development between the northern and southern county units in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration: the hotspot zone with high economic level was formed among the northern county units whereas the coldspot zone with low economic level was located in the southern areas. This difference was caused primarily by the increasingly prominent economic radiation effect of Changsha ′upheaval′; 3) town density, secondary industry, and the integration policy are the major contributors driving the evolution of the spatial economy pattern in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration.