Study on the evaluation system for the coal safety management based on risk pre-control

The new type of risk management is process management. First, the hazardsources are identified before coal mine accidents occur, and then the pre-control measureand information monitoring method based on classifying the hidden hazard sources aregiven. Lastly, the risk pre-alarm and risk control method are confirmed, the managementstandard and management measure are used to eliminate the hidden hazard sources. Inthis study, an evaluation system is built to evaluate the result of risk management.

Risk assessment study on bridge foundation in deep overlying stratum

Based on the analysis about the hydrogeological conditions and engineering geological conditions, this paper makes analysis on the possible risks of the deep overlying stratum foundation and establishes the risk evaluation index system during the foundation operating period. Such methods as analytic hierarchy process （AHP） , Delphi method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are adopted to make the quantitative analysis on the risk factors and establish the risk judgment model. According to the actual engineering of Taizhou Bridge, the paper evaluates the risk of the foundation during the operating period at the condition of deep overlying stratum. The evaluation results can provide the reference for the risk management of the bridge foundation durin~ the ooerating period.

3D finite elements analysis of vertically loaded composite piled raft

In recent years,a new type of foundation named composite piled raft foundation (also called long short composite piled raft) has been developed.Where designing shallow foundations would mean unacceptable settlement,or other environmental risks exist which could impair the structure in the future,composite piled raft foundations could be used.Finite element method was applied to study the behavior of this type of foundation subjected to vertical loading.In order to determine an optimal pile arrangement pattern which yields the minimum settlement,various pile arrangements under different vertical stress levels were investigated.Results show that with increasing the vertical stress on the raft,the effectiveness of the arrangements of short and long piles become more visible.In addition,a new factor named "composite piled raft efficiency" (CPRE) has been defined which determines the efficiency of long short piles arrangement in a composite piled raft foundation.This factor will increase when short piles take more axial stresses and long piles take less axial stresses.In addition,it is found that the changes in settlements for different long short piles arrangement are in a well agreement with changes in values of CPRE ratio.Thus,CPRE ratio can be used as a factor to determine the efficiency of piles arrangements in composite piled raft foundation from the view point of reducing raft settlements.

Landslide Hazard and Community-based Risk Reduction Effort in Karanganyar and the Surrounding Area,Central Java,Indonesia

Karanganyar and the surrounding area are situated in a dynamic volcanic arc region, where landslide frequently occurs during the rainy season. The rain-induced landslide disasters have been resulting in 65 fatalities and a substantial socioeconomical loss in last December 2007. Again, in early February 2009, 6 more people died, hundreds of people temporary evacuated and tens of houses damaged due to the rain-induced landslide. Accordingly, inter-disciplinary approach for geological, geotechnical and social investigations were undertaken with the goal for improving community resilience in the landslide vulnerable villages. Landslide hazard mapping and communitybased landslide mitigation were conducted to reduce the risk of landslides. The hazard mapping was carried out based on the susceptibility assessment with respect to the conditions of slope inclination, types and engineering properties of lithology/soil as well as the types of landuse. All of those parameters were analyzed by applying weighing and scoring system which were calculated by semi qualitative approach (Analytical Hierarchical Process). It was found that the weathered andesitic-steep slope (steeper than 30o) was identified as the highest susceptible slope for rapid landslide, whilst the gentle colluvial slope with inter-stratification of tuffaceous clay-silt was found to be the susceptible slope for creeping. Finally, a programme for landslide risk reduction and control were developed with special emphasize on community-based landslide mitigation and early warning system. It should be highlighted that the social approach needs to be properly addressed in order to guarantee the effectiveness of landslide risk reduction.

Fire risk evaluation research on fully mechanized coalface based on the uncertainty measure theory

A relatively perfect coalmine fire risk-evaluating and order-arranging model that includes sixteen influential factors was established according to the statistical information of the fully mechanized coalface ground on the uncertainty measure theory. Then the single-index measure function of sixteen influential factors and the calculation method of computing the index weight ground on entropy theory were respectively established. The value assignment of sixteen influential factors was carried out by the qualitative analysis and observational data, respectively, in succession. The sequence of fire danger class of four experimental coalfaces could be obtained by the computational aids of Matlab according to the confidence level criterion. Some conclusions that the fire danger class of the No.l, No.2 and No.3 coalface belongs to high criticality can be obtained. But the fire danger class of the No.4 coalface belongs to higher criticality. The fire danger class of the No.4 coalface is more than that of the No.2 coalface. The fire danger class of the No.2 coalface is more than that of the No.1 coalface. Finally, the fire danger class of the No.1 coalface is more than that of the No.3 coalface.

Modelling Plant Disease Risk Areas Based on Brazilian Climate Change Scenarios

Geosciences and statistics were applied to develop predictive models to study the areas of risk to soybean rust （Phakopsora pachyrhizi Sydow） in soybean （Glycine max L.）, coffee leaf rust （Hemileia vastatrix Berk ＆ Br） in coffee and Black Sigatoka （Mycosphaerella fijiensis var. difformis） in banana, considering to Brazilian climatic characterization and distribution of soybean, coffee and banana crops in the period of observed data of 1950 to 2000 and A2 climate change scenarios of simulated data of 2020, 2050 and 2080. The technique of principal components allowed generating 1 variable based on 57 variables in order to determine an index explaining 87%, 88% and 90% of the variability of soybean, coffee and banana crops in Brazilian municipal districts. The climatic model of each disease was used to generate the zoning of the coffee rust, soybean rust and black sigatoka based on temperature and leaf wetness. Areas of favorability of the diseases were plotted inside to the main coffee, soybean and banana growing in Brazil. The applied methodology enabled to visualize the variation of favorable areas of epidemics according to the studied scenarios of climate change.

Risk Assessment Based on Fault Tree Analysis for Damaged Pipe Repair During Operation in Petrochemical Plant

In petrochemical plant, the in-operation repairing is usually a repairing strategy with pressured inoperation repairing for avoiding huge economic losses caused by unplanned shutdown when some slight local leakage happens in pipes. This paper studies the effects of repairing strategies on the failure probability of the pipe systems in process industries based on the time-average fault tree approach, especially the in-operation repairing strategies including pressured in-operation repairing activities. The fault tree model can predict the effect of different repairing plans on the pipe failure probability, which is significant to the optimization of the repairing plans. At first pipes are distinguished into four states in this model, i.e., successive state, flaw state, leakage state and failure state. Then the fault tree approach, which is usually applied in the studies of dynamic equipment, is adopted to model the pipe failure. Moreover, the effect of pressured in-operation repairing is also considered in the model. In addition, this paper proposes a series of time-average parameters of the fault tree model, all of which are used to calculate node parameters of the fault tree model. At last, a practical case is calculated based on the fault tree model in a repairing activity of pipe thinning.

Xinhe Mine water inrush risk assessment based on quantification theoretical models

Taking the Xinhe mine's structure, mine pressure, structural fissure, fault andfault displacement, the distance between fault and water inrush point, thickness of block,water pressure those geological factors which influenced the water inrush as the independentvariable, based on these data of water inrush point and water uninrush point, usingthe method of quantification theory(Ⅰ,Ⅱ), it would quantitatively disposes the qualitativevariable, applied to calculation to evaluate the risk of Xinhe's water inrush.

Community-Based Health Insurance： An Evolutionary Approach to Achieving Universal Coverage in Low-Income Countries

The WHO World Health Assembly, and the most recent WHO World Health Report, have called for all health systems to move toward universal coverage. However, low-income countries have made little progress in this respect. We use existing evidence to describe the evolution of community-based health insurance in low-income countries through the three stages of basic model, enhanced model, and nationwide model. We have concluded that community-based health insurance development is a potential strategy to meet the urgent need for health financing in low-income countries. With careful planning and implementation, it is possible to adopt such evolutionary approach to achieve universal coverage by extending tax-based financing/social insurance characteristics to community-based health insurance schemes.

Test on Muddy Soil Reinforcement by Negative Pressure and Electro-Osmosis Inside Cover-Bearing-Type Bucket Foundation for Offshore Wind Turbines

Cover-bearing-type bucket foundation for offshore wind turbines has been paid more and more attention due to its low cost and great bearing capacity. In order to ensure the cover-bearing mode, the muddy soil inside the bucket foundation should be reinforced by some soil consolidation methods, such as negative pressure and electro-osmosis. Firstly, tests were conducted to obtain the reasonable current density. Meanwhile, to improve the electro-osmotic speed and effectiveness, other factors such as intermittent power and layout of electrode, were also studied in the tests. Then, the soil reinforcing tests by negative pressure combined with electro-osmosis were performed for the muddy soil consolidation inside the bucket foundation. The results showed that soil reinforcement by negative pressure was quicker and more obvious during the early phase, and electro-osmotic method can affect more range of soil by rational arrangement of electrodes. Compared with negative pressure, the electro-osmotic method was a continuous and relatively slow process of reinforcement, which was complementary to the negative pressure method. The voltage value of electro-osmosis had little effect on the muddy soil reinforcement inside the bucket foundation, and 1.5 A was chosen as the most reasonable current value for scale model testing in the electro-osmotic method.

Study of front bumper process on the basis of hot stamping

The fitting method is used for obtaining the constitutive relation of ultra-high strength steel in this paper. At the same time, the forming limit of material is researched under different de/brmation conditions. Through experiments, the paper obtains stress-strain curve under different deformation temperatures and strain rates. On the basis of experimental data, the constitutive relation model is established which can reflect the de- fomlation capacity of ultra-high strength steel during process of hot stamping. Combining with finite element simulation results of hot stamping by the commercial software AUTOFORM, transfer path of load and matching law of strength, the paper determines the design criteria and forming process requirements of parts manufactured by hot stamping. Through setting different process parameters, such as punch velocity and friction coefficient, and blank shape, the paper finds that process parameters and blank shape have an essential effect on the quality of parts.

Management of transport of dangerous goods based on networking technology

Networking is the core area of national strategic emerging industry development of information industry; it will play an important role in national economic development. Currently, it is hot issue of global research at home and abroad regardless of the mention of its development of a national strategic level, it is called the third wave of the world information industry following the computer, and internet.

Risk-analysis-based research and application of land use planning

The establishments which produce,store and use kinds of inflammable,explosive or toxic materials may induce accident,such as fire,explosion or poisonous gas dispersion,etc. Therefore,there is a need to locate these establishments appropriately and conduct land use planning in the vicinity of these establishments based on risk analysis. Consulting advanced experience which obtained from land-use planning in European countries,this paper studied on locating hazardous establishment based on risk index,land-use planning based on consequence-probability,and land-use planning based on individual risk. Frameworks and procedures of the three approaches above were determined and applied to a proposed LNG station. The results show three methods are feasible when major projects' location and their surrounding buildings or establishments' layout are considered.

A Brief Analysis on Risk allocation for Public-Private Partnership Projects in China

Public-Private Partnership （PPP） financing modalily has the ability of alleviating the budgetary pressure to the government. fulfilling the need of infrastructure development, and improving the efficiency of investment and operation. However, the negotiations between the government and the investors are time-consuming and costly, due to the perspective differences in risk allocation and revenue distribution. Disputes often arise during concession period because of changes in various risks or non-performance of its obligalions, especially when one sector was forced to accept the requirements by the other as a result of the unequal status, the project urgency or other reasons. Only a few PPP projects in China could perform successfully. There is therefore a need to develop an equitable risk allocation mechanism for the delivery of PPP projects in China so as to improve the efficiency of private investment in infrastructure development.

Variance Reduction Technique for Estimating Value-at-Risk based on the Cross - Entropy

Value-at-Risk （VaR） estimation via Monte Carlo （MC） simulation is studied here. The variance reduction technique is proposed in order to speed up MC algorithm. The algorithm for estimating the probability of high portfolio losses （more general risk measure） based on the Cross - Entropy importance sampling is developed. This algorithm can easily be applied in any light- or heavy-tailed case without an extra adaptation. Besides, it does not loose in the performance in comparison to other known methods. A numerical study in both cases is performed and the variance reduction rate is compared with other known methods. The problem of VaR estimation using procedures for estimating the probability of high portfolio losses is also discussed.

Study the closed loop management system for the coal mines based on risk management

In recent years, the coal safety has been become the urgent problem in China,and severe and fatal coal mine accidents occurred frequently.Must pay attention to coal safety management immediately, because the coal mine accidents not only caused serious economic losses to the country and people but also had negative impact on the society and politics.A closed loop management system was put forward to build to improve the coal safety management.The closed loop management system was formed four parts,identifying the hazard sources, classifying the hidden troubles hazard sources, the risk prealarm and risk control, and the evaluation system.

Assets Inspections ,A Real Knowledge for Risk and Asset Management

Empresa Portuguesa das Aguas Livres （EPAL） is a capital intensive company, in which the operational infra-structure assets represent the basis of customer service whilst being a great consumer of capital. In this context, the asset management function plays a key role in optimizing the return on infrastructure usage, and at the same time guaranteeing adequate levels of service. With a view to an effective and efficient management of investments to be made in a rational and sustained way under technical-scientific criteria, implementing a systematic inspection program was considered as the best approach strategy. The main purpose of the inspection program is to obtain, in a systematic, coherent and comparable way, relevant information to support decision making, in particular for supporting intervention priorities and identification along with asset maintenance requirements, whether preventive or curative. This methodology is revealed as a key tool in the management of risk of failure associated with the management and operation of EPAL＇s building infrastructure.

Real-time lane departure warning system based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution and risk evaluation model

A technology for unintended lane departure warning was proposed. As crucial information, lane boundaries were detected based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution in search bars of given number and then each search bar was tracked using Kalman filter between frames. The lane detection performance was evaluated and demonstrated in ways of receiver operating characteristic, dice similarity coefficient and real-time performance. For lane departure detection, a lane departure risk evaluation model based on lasting time and frequency was effectively executed on the ARM-based platform. Experimental results indicate that the algorithm generates satisfactory lane detection results under different traffic and lighting conditions, and the proposed warning mechanism sends effective warning signals, avoiding most false warning.