Dike failure and marine losses are quite prominent in Laizhou Bay during the period of cold wave storm surges because of its open coastline to the north and flat topography. In order to evaluate the intensity of cold ...Dike failure and marine losses are quite prominent in Laizhou Bay during the period of cold wave storm surges because of its open coastline to the north and flat topography. In order to evaluate the intensity of cold wave storm surge, the hindcast of marine elements induced by cold waves in Laizhou Bay from 1985 to 2004 is conducted using a cold wave storm surge–wave coupled model and the joint return period of extreme water level, concomitant wave height, and concomitant wind speed are calculated. A new criterion of cold wave storm surge intensity based on such studies is developed. Considering the frequency of cold wave, this paper introduces a Poisson trivariate compound reconstruction model to calculate the joint return period, which is closer to the reality. By using the newly defined cold wave storm surge intensity, the ‘cold wave grade' in meteorology can better describe the severity of cold wave storm surges and the warning level is well corresponding to different intensities of cold wave storm surges. Therefore, it provides a proper guidance to marine hydrological analysis, disaster prevention and marine structure design in Laizhou Bay.展开更多
一、前言密西西比河上游1993年6～8月发生的大洪水使美国中西部出现了有史以来最大的洪灾。据估计,财产损失超过100亿美元,死亡47人,7万人无家可归。除洪泛区道路受阻外,密河与密苏里河长期停航,1000多 km 的堤防溃决,广大农田被淹数周...一、前言密西西比河上游1993年6～8月发生的大洪水使美国中西部出现了有史以来最大的洪灾。据估计,财产损失超过100亿美元,死亡47人,7万人无家可归。除洪泛区道路受阻外,密河与密苏里河长期停航,1000多 km 的堤防溃决,广大农田被淹数周,工农业受灾严重。衣阿华州得梅因由于拉昆河泛滥淹没了市区的净水设施。展开更多
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.51279186,51479183)the National Key Research and Development Program (Nos.2016YFC0303401,2016YFC0802301)
文摘Dike failure and marine losses are quite prominent in Laizhou Bay during the period of cold wave storm surges because of its open coastline to the north and flat topography. In order to evaluate the intensity of cold wave storm surge, the hindcast of marine elements induced by cold waves in Laizhou Bay from 1985 to 2004 is conducted using a cold wave storm surge–wave coupled model and the joint return period of extreme water level, concomitant wave height, and concomitant wind speed are calculated. A new criterion of cold wave storm surge intensity based on such studies is developed. Considering the frequency of cold wave, this paper introduces a Poisson trivariate compound reconstruction model to calculate the joint return period, which is closer to the reality. By using the newly defined cold wave storm surge intensity, the ‘cold wave grade' in meteorology can better describe the severity of cold wave storm surges and the warning level is well corresponding to different intensities of cold wave storm surges. Therefore, it provides a proper guidance to marine hydrological analysis, disaster prevention and marine structure design in Laizhou Bay.
文摘一、前言密西西比河上游1993年6～8月发生的大洪水使美国中西部出现了有史以来最大的洪灾。据估计,财产损失超过100亿美元,死亡47人,7万人无家可归。除洪泛区道路受阻外,密河与密苏里河长期停航,1000多 km 的堤防溃决,广大农田被淹数周,工农业受灾严重。衣阿华州得梅因由于拉昆河泛滥淹没了市区的净水设施。
