This paper attempted to identify fractal and chaotic characteristics of the annual runoff processes in headwaters of the Tarim River.Methods of fractal analyses were used to explore several aspects of the temporal cha...This paper attempted to identify fractal and chaotic characteristics of the annual runoff processes in headwaters of the Tarim River.Methods of fractal analyses were used to explore several aspects of the temporal changes from 1957 to 2002.The main findings are as follows:(1) The annual runoff processes of the three headwaters of the Tarim River are com-plex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics.(2) The correlation dimensions of attractor derived from the time series of the annual runoff for the Hotan,Yarkand and Aksu rivers are all greater than 3.0 and non-integral,implying that all three rivers are chaotic dynamical systems that are sensitive to initial conditions,and the dynamic modeling of their annual runoff process requires at least four independent variables.(3) The time series of annual runoff in each river presents a long-term correlation characteristic.The Hurst exponent for the period of 1989 to 2002 suggests that we may expect to see an increasing trend in the annual runoff of the Aksu and Yarkand rivers in the years after 2002,but a decreasing tendency for the Hotan River in the same period.展开更多
This paper examines spatio-temporal characteristics of an oasis economy and its relationship with water and mineral resources in the Tarim River Basin from 1965 to 2005. A spatial autocorrelation model, the center of ...This paper examines spatio-temporal characteristics of an oasis economy and its relationship with water and mineral resources in the Tarim River Basin from 1965 to 2005. A spatial autocorrelation model, the center of gravity model, and index system of the regional central city are used to probe the evolution laws of spatial structure of oasis economy. The study finds that: 1) The economic centre of gravity, whose variation track during this period follows linear rate law, was moving from headstream to middle reaches of the Tarim River. 2) Positive spatial autocorrelation which showed a waving and ascending trend of regional economy was significant and the neighbor effect of regional economic growth was strengthened continuously. 3) The regional economic centre was located in Hotan City before 1980, moved to Aksu City during the 1980s and to Korla City after 1990. We conclude that above all, during the recent four decades the evolution of the oasis economy in this region has gone through three stages: a traditional agriculture stage (before 1980), oasis agriculture and agricultural product processing stage (1980–1990) and oasis energy industry stage (after 1990). Furthermore, the dependence degree of the oasis economy on natural resources in different stages are studied by using dominance index, regression model, and grey relation method, which shows that an oasis econ- omy highly depends on water resources in the oasis agriculture and agricultural product processing stage while it de- pends more on mineral resources such as oil and natural gas during the oasis energy industry stage.展开更多
基金Knowledge Innovation Project of CAS, No.KZCX2-XB2-03Major Direction of Knowledge Innovation Project of CAS,No.KZCX2-YW-127Shanghai Academic Discipline Project (Human Geography),No.B410
文摘This paper attempted to identify fractal and chaotic characteristics of the annual runoff processes in headwaters of the Tarim River.Methods of fractal analyses were used to explore several aspects of the temporal changes from 1957 to 2002.The main findings are as follows:(1) The annual runoff processes of the three headwaters of the Tarim River are com-plex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics.(2) The correlation dimensions of attractor derived from the time series of the annual runoff for the Hotan,Yarkand and Aksu rivers are all greater than 3.0 and non-integral,implying that all three rivers are chaotic dynamical systems that are sensitive to initial conditions,and the dynamic modeling of their annual runoff process requires at least four independent variables.(3) The time series of annual runoff in each river presents a long-term correlation characteristic.The Hurst exponent for the period of 1989 to 2002 suggests that we may expect to see an increasing trend in the annual runoff of the Aksu and Yarkand rivers in the years after 2002,but a decreasing tendency for the Hotan River in the same period.
基金Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-XB2-03-03)Western Doctor Plan of Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘This paper examines spatio-temporal characteristics of an oasis economy and its relationship with water and mineral resources in the Tarim River Basin from 1965 to 2005. A spatial autocorrelation model, the center of gravity model, and index system of the regional central city are used to probe the evolution laws of spatial structure of oasis economy. The study finds that: 1) The economic centre of gravity, whose variation track during this period follows linear rate law, was moving from headstream to middle reaches of the Tarim River. 2) Positive spatial autocorrelation which showed a waving and ascending trend of regional economy was significant and the neighbor effect of regional economic growth was strengthened continuously. 3) The regional economic centre was located in Hotan City before 1980, moved to Aksu City during the 1980s and to Korla City after 1990. We conclude that above all, during the recent four decades the evolution of the oasis economy in this region has gone through three stages: a traditional agriculture stage (before 1980), oasis agriculture and agricultural product processing stage (1980–1990) and oasis energy industry stage (after 1990). Furthermore, the dependence degree of the oasis economy on natural resources in different stages are studied by using dominance index, regression model, and grey relation method, which shows that an oasis econ- omy highly depends on water resources in the oasis agriculture and agricultural product processing stage while it de- pends more on mineral resources such as oil and natural gas during the oasis energy industry stage.
