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中国海洋经济周期波动分析 被引量:1
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作者 李凯 刘斌 宋维玲 《海洋经济》 2019年第1期53-62,共10页
在"一带一路"倡议下,中国海洋经济对外开放程度和对外依赖程度日益增长。同时,由于受不同层面的冲击影响,海洋经济的发展产生了不确定性进而引致了潜在的经济周期性增长风险。因此,对海洋经济运行的周期波动以及发展态势进行... 在"一带一路"倡议下,中国海洋经济对外开放程度和对外依赖程度日益增长。同时,由于受不同层面的冲击影响,海洋经济的发展产生了不确定性进而引致了潜在的经济周期性增长风险。因此,对海洋经济运行的周期波动以及发展态势进行监测与预判,有利于海洋经济保持于稳健的增长路径之上。基于增长率指标构建的中国海洋经济扩散指数和合成指数的实证,研究结论表明:①所构造的海洋经济扩散指数和合成指数具有较高的预测预判效果,先行指数、同步指数、滞后指数之间的变动存在合理的时差关系;②中国海洋经济存在显著的短周期性波动。进一步的研究发现,由于宏观政策调控和外部经济环境的显著性影响,海洋经济周期与中国宏观经济周期呈现出协动性特征。 展开更多
关键词 增长率周期 景气指数 LOGIT模型
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论经济周期的监测对象
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作者 谭运嘉 《中国市场》 2018年第26期1-4,30,共5页
为制定有效的产业调控政策、加快我国工业经济结构调整和升级、实现工业经济平稳快速发展,需要完善我国工业经济周期监测体系,其中的首要任务即明确经济周期的监测对象。文章首先通过对不同观点的比较,对经济周期的含义进行了界定,在此... 为制定有效的产业调控政策、加快我国工业经济结构调整和升级、实现工业经济平稳快速发展,需要完善我国工业经济周期监测体系,其中的首要任务即明确经济周期的监测对象。文章首先通过对不同观点的比较,对经济周期的含义进行了界定,在此基础上论述了经济周期的监测对象是"总体经济活动"中的一种波动,并对其度量指标进行了阐述。基于不同的度量指标及其基础数据形式,所监测的经济周期类型有所不同,包括古典周期、增长周期或增长率周期等三种类型。 展开更多
关键词 经济周期监测 总体经济活动 古典周期 增长周期 增长率周期
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Effect of bis(tributyltin)oxide on reproduction and population growth rate of calanoid copepod Schmackeria poplesia 被引量:1
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作者 黄瑛 朱丽岩 +1 位作者 邱旭春 张天文 《Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2010年第2期280-287,共8页
A full life-cycle toxicity test, combined with histology, on calanoid copepod Schmackeria poplesia was used to study the effect of bis(tributyltin) oxide (TBTO). The results indicate no sex-specific differences in... A full life-cycle toxicity test, combined with histology, on calanoid copepod Schmackeria poplesia was used to study the effect of bis(tributyltin) oxide (TBTO). The results indicate no sex-specific differences in TBTO toxicity. Long-term mortalities of the copepods exposed to concentrations higher than 20 ng TBTO L"1 were significantly elevated compared with that of control, and larval development was inhibited when they were exposed to 40 and 60 ng TBTO L-1. The percentages of ovigerous females were reduced compared with the control (P〈0.01) after 24 days exposure to concentrations higher than 10 ng TBTO L-1. Histological examinations suggest that exposure to TBTO might block the posterior end of the diverticula and inhibits the production of egg sacs. A modified Euler-Lotka equation was used to calculate a population-level endpoint, the intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm), from individual life-table endpoints, i.e. mortality rate, time of release of first brood, sex ratio, the fraction of ovigerous females among all females as well as the number of nauplii per ovigerous female. Apart from the highest TBTO concentration (60 ng LI), where all females aborted their egg sacs, 20 ng TBTO L-1 was the only concentration that significantly decreased rm compared with that of control (an effect associated with decreased sex ratio). The results show that the S. poplesia is affected by prolonged exposure to low concentrations of TBTO. The full life-cycle toxicity test combined with histology experiments provides more integral understanding of the toxicity of endocrine disrupters. 展开更多
关键词 TRIBUTYLTIN REPRODUCTION population growth rate GONAD Schmackeria poplesia toxicity testing
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The Chaotic Real-Exchange-Rate Growth Model
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作者 Vesna D. Jablanovic 《Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing》 2013年第4期582-586,共5页
Chaos theory is used to prove that erratic and chaotic fluctuations can indeed arise in completely deterministic models. Chaos theory reveals structure in aperiodic, dynamic systems. A number of non-linear business cy... Chaos theory is used to prove that erratic and chaotic fluctuations can indeed arise in completely deterministic models. Chaos theory reveals structure in aperiodic, dynamic systems. A number of non-linear business cycle models use chaos theory to explain complex motion of the economy. Chaotic systems exhibit a sensitive dependence on initial conditions: Seemingly insignificant changes in the initial conditions produce large differences in outcomes. The basic aim of this analysis is to provide a relatively simple chaotic real-exchange-rate growth model that is capable of generating stable equilibria, cycles, or chaos. 展开更多
关键词 real exchange rate growth APPRECIATION CHAOS
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