Chaos theory is used to prove that erratic and chaotic fluctuations can indeed arise in completely deterministic models. Chaos theory reveals structure in aperiodic, dynamic systems. A number of non-linear business cy...Chaos theory is used to prove that erratic and chaotic fluctuations can indeed arise in completely deterministic models. Chaos theory reveals structure in aperiodic, dynamic systems. A number of non-linear business cycle models use chaos theory to explain complex motion of the economy. Chaotic systems exhibit a sensitive dependence on initial conditions： Seemingly insignificant changes in the initial conditions produce large differences in outcomes. The basic aim of this analysis is to provide a relatively simple chaotic real-exchange-rate growth model that is capable of generating stable equilibria, cycles, or chaos.展开更多
In the evolution of economic growth drivers, technology gaps are a key variable that determines the efficiency of resource allocation. Analysis of an optimal resource allocation path based on an extended endogenous gr...In the evolution of economic growth drivers, technology gaps are a key variable that determines the efficiency of resource allocation. Analysis of an optimal resource allocation path based on an extended endogenous growth model reveals that economic growth drivers evolve from productive investment to R＆D investment and a shift from imitation to innovation. Empirical analysis based on China＇s provincial-level panel data suggests that the effect of productive investment and R＆D investment, as well as innovation and imitation, on economic growth and technological progress varies greatly among regions of disparate technology levels. As a late-starting country, China should properly allocate resources between productive investment and R＆D investment, and between imitational investment and innovative investment while advancing the transformation of economic growth patterns on a differentiated basis in light of regional technology disparities.展开更多
As a key factor of economic growth, productivity has been valued in the academic community. Today, with the rapid development of service industry, the research for service productivity has also attracted wide attentio...As a key factor of economic growth, productivity has been valued in the academic community. Today, with the rapid development of service industry, the research for service productivity has also attracted wide attention. However, in the service industry, because of its own characteristics and properties, measurement of service productivity could not apply for the traditional productivity measurement methods simply. This research first has put out the constitution model of service productivity, and thus put out the measurement model of service productivity. And explains that service productivity is a function which contains internal efficiency, external efficiency, and capacity efficiency. In service productivity, external efficiency is the key one, internal efficie and capacity efficiency should also be given considerations. Eventually, the strategy of implementing measurement of service productivity have been proposed ncy the展开更多
Is Chinese urbanization going to take a long time, or can its development goal be achieved by the government in a short time? What is the highest stable urbanization level that China can reach? When can China complete...Is Chinese urbanization going to take a long time, or can its development goal be achieved by the government in a short time? What is the highest stable urbanization level that China can reach? When can China complete its urbanization? To answer these questions, this paper presents a system dynamic(SD) model of Chinese urbanization, and its validity and simulation are justified by a stock-flow test and a sensitivity analysis using real data from 1998 to 2013. Setting the initial conditions of the simulation by referring to the real data of 2013, the multi-scenario analysis from 2013 to 2050 reveals that Chinese urbanization will reach a level higher than 70% in 2035 and then proceed to a slow urbanization stage regardless of the population policy and GDP growth rate settings; in 2050, Chinese urbanization levels will reach approximately 75%, which is a stable and equilibrium level for China. Thus, it can be argued that Chinese urbanization is a long social development process that will require approximately20 years to complete and that the ultimate urbanization level will be 75–80%, which means that in the distant future, 20–25% of China's population will still settle in rural regions of China.展开更多
The weight of shelled shrimp is an important parameter for grading process.The weight prediction of shelled shrimp by contour area is not accurate enough because of the ignorance of the shrimp thickness.In this paper,...The weight of shelled shrimp is an important parameter for grading process.The weight prediction of shelled shrimp by contour area is not accurate enough because of the ignorance of the shrimp thickness.In this paper,a multivariate prediction model containing area,perimeter,length,and width was established.A new calibration algorithm for extracting length of shelled shrimp was proposed,which contains binary image thinning,branch recognition and elimination,and length reconstruction,while its width was calculated during the process of length extracting.The model was further validated with another set of images from 30 shelled shrimps.For a comparison purpose,artificial neural network(ANN) was used for the shrimp weight predication.The ANN model resulted in a better prediction accuracy(with the average relative error at 2.67%),but took a tenfold increase in calculation time compared with the weight-area-perimeter(WAP) model(with the average relative error at 3.02%).We thus conclude that the WAP model is a better method for the prediction of the weight of shelled red shrimp.展开更多
文摘Chaos theory is used to prove that erratic and chaotic fluctuations can indeed arise in completely deterministic models. Chaos theory reveals structure in aperiodic, dynamic systems. A number of non-linear business cycle models use chaos theory to explain complex motion of the economy. Chaotic systems exhibit a sensitive dependence on initial conditions： Seemingly insignificant changes in the initial conditions produce large differences in outcomes. The basic aim of this analysis is to provide a relatively simple chaotic real-exchange-rate growth model that is capable of generating stable equilibria, cycles, or chaos.
文摘In the evolution of economic growth drivers, technology gaps are a key variable that determines the efficiency of resource allocation. Analysis of an optimal resource allocation path based on an extended endogenous growth model reveals that economic growth drivers evolve from productive investment to R＆D investment and a shift from imitation to innovation. Empirical analysis based on China＇s provincial-level panel data suggests that the effect of productive investment and R＆D investment, as well as innovation and imitation, on economic growth and technological progress varies greatly among regions of disparate technology levels. As a late-starting country, China should properly allocate resources between productive investment and R＆D investment, and between imitational investment and innovative investment while advancing the transformation of economic growth patterns on a differentiated basis in light of regional technology disparities.
文摘As a key factor of economic growth, productivity has been valued in the academic community. Today, with the rapid development of service industry, the research for service productivity has also attracted wide attention. However, in the service industry, because of its own characteristics and properties, measurement of service productivity could not apply for the traditional productivity measurement methods simply. This research first has put out the constitution model of service productivity, and thus put out the measurement model of service productivity. And explains that service productivity is a function which contains internal efficiency, external efficiency, and capacity efficiency. In service productivity, external efficiency is the key one, internal efficie and capacity efficiency should also be given considerations. Eventually, the strategy of implementing measurement of service productivity have been proposed ncy the
基金supported by the Key Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China “the SD model and threshold value prediction of the interactive coupled effects between urbanization and eco-environment in mega-urban agglomerations” (Grant No. 41590844)the Independent Research Program of Tsinghua University (Grant No. 2015THZ01)
文摘Is Chinese urbanization going to take a long time, or can its development goal be achieved by the government in a short time? What is the highest stable urbanization level that China can reach? When can China complete its urbanization? To answer these questions, this paper presents a system dynamic(SD) model of Chinese urbanization, and its validity and simulation are justified by a stock-flow test and a sensitivity analysis using real data from 1998 to 2013. Setting the initial conditions of the simulation by referring to the real data of 2013, the multi-scenario analysis from 2013 to 2050 reveals that Chinese urbanization will reach a level higher than 70% in 2035 and then proceed to a slow urbanization stage regardless of the population policy and GDP growth rate settings; in 2050, Chinese urbanization levels will reach approximately 75%, which is a stable and equilibrium level for China. Thus, it can be argued that Chinese urbanization is a long social development process that will require approximately20 years to complete and that the ultimate urbanization level will be 75–80%, which means that in the distant future, 20–25% of China's population will still settle in rural regions of China.
文摘The weight of shelled shrimp is an important parameter for grading process.The weight prediction of shelled shrimp by contour area is not accurate enough because of the ignorance of the shrimp thickness.In this paper,a multivariate prediction model containing area,perimeter,length,and width was established.A new calibration algorithm for extracting length of shelled shrimp was proposed,which contains binary image thinning,branch recognition and elimination,and length reconstruction,while its width was calculated during the process of length extracting.The model was further validated with another set of images from 30 shelled shrimps.For a comparison purpose,artificial neural network(ANN) was used for the shrimp weight predication.The ANN model resulted in a better prediction accuracy(with the average relative error at 2.67%),but took a tenfold increase in calculation time compared with the weight-area-perimeter(WAP) model(with the average relative error at 3.02%).We thus conclude that the WAP model is a better method for the prediction of the weight of shelled red shrimp.
