This study reveals a significant relationship, on the interannual timescale, between a dipole mode, the second leading mode, of spring sea-ice anomalies in the Barents Sea and the following-summer rainfall in East Asi...This study reveals a significant relationship, on the interannual timescale, between a dipole mode, the second leading mode, of spring sea-ice anomalies in the Barents Sea and the following-summer rainfall in East Asia. Related to the dipole mode, with the heavier sea ice in the north and lighter sea ice in the southeast Barents Sea in spring, the East Asian summer subtropical rainy belt tends to move northward. The significant relationship is established through a wave train over northern Eurasia in the lower troposphere in June. The wave train enhances the northern East Asian low, which induces more rainfall to the north of the East Asian subtropical rainy belt and then attracts the subtropical rainy belt to move northward. This study suggests that the dipole mode of spring sea-ice anomalies in the Barents Sea may be a good precursor for the prediction of East Asian summer rainfall.展开更多
The East Asian summer climate is modulated by a low-pressure system over northern East Asia（NEAL） and a subtropical high over the western North Pacific. Many studies have focused on the subtropical high, but little ...The East Asian summer climate is modulated by a low-pressure system over northern East Asia（NEAL） and a subtropical high over the western North Pacific. Many studies have focused on the subtropical high, but little is known about NEAL, especially its change in the future under global warming scenarios. This study investigates the projected change in NEAL in the late twenty-first century, using the outputs of 20 models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project — specifically, their historical climate simulations（HIST） and future climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5（RCP4.5） and 8.5（RCP8.5） scenarios. The results show that the models capture the NEAL well in HIST. The NEAL is weakened in the late twenty-first century under the two RCP scenarios, with a stronger weakening under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5.The weakened NEAL increases the geopotential height zonal gradient in the west and causes a southerly anomaly, which may bring more moisture and rainfall to northern East Asia.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41375086 and 41775062]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41630530]+1 种基金the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)supported by the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS
文摘This study reveals a significant relationship, on the interannual timescale, between a dipole mode, the second leading mode, of spring sea-ice anomalies in the Barents Sea and the following-summer rainfall in East Asia. Related to the dipole mode, with the heavier sea ice in the north and lighter sea ice in the southeast Barents Sea in spring, the East Asian summer subtropical rainy belt tends to move northward. The significant relationship is established through a wave train over northern Eurasia in the lower troposphere in June. The wave train enhances the northern East Asian low, which induces more rainfall to the north of the East Asian subtropical rainy belt and then attracts the subtropical rainy belt to move northward. This study suggests that the dipole mode of spring sea-ice anomalies in the Barents Sea may be a good precursor for the prediction of East Asian summer rainfall.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41375086],[grant number41305063]
文摘The East Asian summer climate is modulated by a low-pressure system over northern East Asia（NEAL） and a subtropical high over the western North Pacific. Many studies have focused on the subtropical high, but little is known about NEAL, especially its change in the future under global warming scenarios. This study investigates the projected change in NEAL in the late twenty-first century, using the outputs of 20 models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project — specifically, their historical climate simulations（HIST） and future climate projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5（RCP4.5） and 8.5（RCP8.5） scenarios. The results show that the models capture the NEAL well in HIST. The NEAL is weakened in the late twenty-first century under the two RCP scenarios, with a stronger weakening under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5.The weakened NEAL increases the geopotential height zonal gradient in the west and causes a southerly anomaly, which may bring more moisture and rainfall to northern East Asia.
