Based on the pentad mean ridgeline index of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the authors identified the two northward jumps of the WPSH from 1979 to 2008 and revealed their associations with the tropical S...Based on the pentad mean ridgeline index of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the authors identified the two northward jumps of the WPSH from 1979 to 2008 and revealed their associations with the tropical SST anomalies. The authors show that the northward jumps, especially the second jump, exhibited remarkable interannual variability. In addition, the authors find that the two northward jumps were mutually independent and were influenced by the SST anomalies in the different regions of the tropical Pacific. The first jump was positively correlated with the SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific from the preceding winter to June. In contrast, the second jump was positively related to ENSO in the preceding winter, but this correlation tended to weaken with the decay of ENSO and disappeared in July. Instead, a positive correlation was found in the Indian Ocean. We therefore suggest that ENSO plays an indirect role in the second jump through the capacitor effect of the Indian Ocean.展开更多
In the summer of 2013, an unprecedented heat wave was experienced over a vast area of southern China. The great areal extent, duration, and strength of this high temperature are very rare. For the 2013 hot spell, the ...In the summer of 2013, an unprecedented heat wave was experienced over a vast area of southern China. The great areal extent, duration, and strength of this high temperature are very rare. For the 2013 hot spell, the major and direct influence mostly came from the anomaly of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH). The abnormally strong and stable WPSH was associated with specific surrounding circulations. The eastward extension of a stronger Qinghai-Xizang high favored the westward extension of the WPSH. The weaker cold air activity from the polar region led to the northward shift of the WPSH and helped it to remain stable. In the tropics, the western segment of the ITCZ was abnormally strong in the period, and supported the maintenance of the WPSH from the south. In addition, the interdecadal variation of the WPSH provided a decadal background for the anomaly variation of the WPSH that summer.展开更多
Based on the composite result of six major the intraseasonal variation of the East Asian La Nina events during 1979-2012, the authors reveal summer monsoon （EASM） and summer rainfall in East Asia in La Nino years. D...Based on the composite result of six major the intraseasonal variation of the East Asian La Nina events during 1979-2012, the authors reveal summer monsoon （EASM） and summer rainfall in East Asia in La Nino years. Due to a higher SST over the western Pacific warm pool in the proceeding winter and spring, warm pool convection in summer is enhanced, leading to a cyclonic anomaly in the subtropical western Pacific. As a result, the western Pacific subtropical high is located more northeastward, and the seasonal march in East Asia is thus accelerated.This anomalous pattern tends to change with the seasonal march, with a maximum anomaly in July. Besides, there is less Mei-yu rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, with an earlier start and termination. The rainfall distribution in East Asia during La Nino years is characterized bya zonal pattern of less rainfall in eastern China and more rainfall over the oceanic region of the western Pacific. By comparison, a meridional pattern is found during El Nino years, with less rainfall in the tropics and more rainfall in the subtropics and midlatitudes. Therefore, the influence of La Nino on the EASM cannot be simply attributed to an antisymmetric influence of El Nino.展开更多
By decomposing outgoing Iongwave radiation through empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis, the authors identify two anomalous convective systems in the tropical western Pacific. Besides the classical convectiv...By decomposing outgoing Iongwave radiation through empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis, the authors identify two anomalous convective systems in the tropical western Pacific. Besides the classical convective system near the Philippines （PC）, there is another convective system near the Federated States of Micronesia （MC）. As the first EOF component in this region, the variance explained by MC is higher than that by PC. Both MC and PC are regulated by the tropical sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies. While PC is associated with an El Ni^o event, MC is correlated with SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific during summer. It is also found that the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） is influenced by these two convective systems. In general, enhanced （suppressed） convection corresponds to an eastwards （westwards） western Pacific subtropical high with weak （strong） intensity. Besides, the summer monsoon rainfall from the Yangtze River basin to Japan tends to increase （decrease） when PC is suppressed （enhanced）. By comparison, the influence of MC is generally weak, with vague signals in the East Asian continent. Moreover, the influence of suppressed convection on the EASM is more significant than that of enhanced convection.展开更多
East Asian summer rainfall is affected by both the continental northern East Asian low （NEAL） and the western North Pacific subtropical high （WNPSH） in the lower troposphere. This study investigates the joint effe...East Asian summer rainfall is affected by both the continental northern East Asian low （NEAL） and the western North Pacific subtropical high （WNPSH） in the lower troposphere. This study investigates the joint effect of the two circulation factors on East Asian summer rainfall. It is found that the rainfall in East Asia behaves differently in the years with in-phase and out-of-phase variation between the NEAL and WNPSH. When the NEAL and WNPSH vary in phase, i.e. when they are both stronger, the rainfall anomaly shows a dipole pattern in East Asia and displays opposite changes between north and south of 30°N. When the two circulation factors vary out of phase, the rainfall anomaly is concentrated in the Yangtze River valley.展开更多
Weather and climate in East China are closely related to the variability of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), which is an important part of the Asian monsoon system. The WPSH prediction in spring and summer ...Weather and climate in East China are closely related to the variability of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), which is an important part of the Asian monsoon system. The WPSH prediction in spring and summer is a critical component of rainfall forecasting during the summer flood season in China. Although many attempts have been made to predict WPSH variability, its predictability remains limited in practice due to the complexity of the WPSH evolution. Many studies have indicated that the sea surface temperature(SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean has a significant effect on WPSH variability. In this paper, a statistical model is developed to forecast the monthly variation in the WPSH during the spring and summer seasons on the basis of its relationship with SST over the tropical Indian Ocean. The forecasted SST over the tropical Indian Ocean is the predictor in this model, which differs significantly from other WPSH prediction methods. A 26-year independent hindcast experiment from 1983 to 2008 is conducted and validated in which the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is compared with that driven by the persisted SST. Results indicate that the skill score of the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is substantial.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2010CB951901)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40821092)
文摘Based on the pentad mean ridgeline index of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the authors identified the two northward jumps of the WPSH from 1979 to 2008 and revealed their associations with the tropical SST anomalies. The authors show that the northward jumps, especially the second jump, exhibited remarkable interannual variability. In addition, the authors find that the two northward jumps were mutually independent and were influenced by the SST anomalies in the different regions of the tropical Pacific. The first jump was positively correlated with the SST anomalies in the tropical central Pacific from the preceding winter to June. In contrast, the second jump was positively related to ENSO in the preceding winter, but this correlation tended to weaken with the decay of ENSO and disappeared in July. Instead, a positive correlation was found in the Indian Ocean. We therefore suggest that ENSO plays an indirect role in the second jump through the capacitor effect of the Indian Ocean.
基金supported by the Special Public Welfare Research Fund of China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. GYHY201406020)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41375055)
文摘In the summer of 2013, an unprecedented heat wave was experienced over a vast area of southern China. The great areal extent, duration, and strength of this high temperature are very rare. For the 2013 hot spell, the major and direct influence mostly came from the anomaly of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH). The abnormally strong and stable WPSH was associated with specific surrounding circulations. The eastward extension of a stronger Qinghai-Xizang high favored the westward extension of the WPSH. The weaker cold air activity from the polar region led to the northward shift of the WPSH and helped it to remain stable. In the tropics, the western segment of the ITCZ was abnormally strong in the period, and supported the maintenance of the WPSH from the south. In addition, the interdecadal variation of the WPSH provided a decadal background for the anomaly variation of the WPSH that summer.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41475052]
文摘Based on the composite result of six major the intraseasonal variation of the East Asian La Nina events during 1979-2012, the authors reveal summer monsoon （EASM） and summer rainfall in East Asia in La Nino years. Due to a higher SST over the western Pacific warm pool in the proceeding winter and spring, warm pool convection in summer is enhanced, leading to a cyclonic anomaly in the subtropical western Pacific. As a result, the western Pacific subtropical high is located more northeastward, and the seasonal march in East Asia is thus accelerated.This anomalous pattern tends to change with the seasonal march, with a maximum anomaly in July. Besides, there is less Mei-yu rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, with an earlier start and termination. The rainfall distribution in East Asia during La Nino years is characterized bya zonal pattern of less rainfall in eastern China and more rainfall over the oceanic region of the western Pacific. By comparison, a meridional pattern is found during El Nino years, with less rainfall in the tropics and more rainfall in the subtropics and midlatitudes. Therefore, the influence of La Nino on the EASM cannot be simply attributed to an antisymmetric influence of El Nino.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41475052]
文摘By decomposing outgoing Iongwave radiation through empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis, the authors identify two anomalous convective systems in the tropical western Pacific. Besides the classical convective system near the Philippines （PC）, there is another convective system near the Federated States of Micronesia （MC）. As the first EOF component in this region, the variance explained by MC is higher than that by PC. Both MC and PC are regulated by the tropical sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies. While PC is associated with an El Ni^o event, MC is correlated with SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific during summer. It is also found that the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） is influenced by these two convective systems. In general, enhanced （suppressed） convection corresponds to an eastwards （westwards） western Pacific subtropical high with weak （strong） intensity. Besides, the summer monsoon rainfall from the Yangtze River basin to Japan tends to increase （decrease） when PC is suppressed （enhanced）. By comparison, the influence of MC is generally weak, with vague signals in the East Asian continent. Moreover, the influence of suppressed convection on the EASM is more significant than that of enhanced convection.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41375086]
文摘East Asian summer rainfall is affected by both the continental northern East Asian low （NEAL） and the western North Pacific subtropical high （WNPSH） in the lower troposphere. This study investigates the joint effect of the two circulation factors on East Asian summer rainfall. It is found that the rainfall in East Asia behaves differently in the years with in-phase and out-of-phase variation between the NEAL and WNPSH. When the NEAL and WNPSH vary in phase, i.e. when they are both stronger, the rainfall anomaly shows a dipole pattern in East Asia and displays opposite changes between north and south of 30°N. When the two circulation factors vary out of phase, the rainfall anomaly is concentrated in the Yangtze River valley.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB417404)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41075064 and41176014)
文摘Weather and climate in East China are closely related to the variability of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), which is an important part of the Asian monsoon system. The WPSH prediction in spring and summer is a critical component of rainfall forecasting during the summer flood season in China. Although many attempts have been made to predict WPSH variability, its predictability remains limited in practice due to the complexity of the WPSH evolution. Many studies have indicated that the sea surface temperature(SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean has a significant effect on WPSH variability. In this paper, a statistical model is developed to forecast the monthly variation in the WPSH during the spring and summer seasons on the basis of its relationship with SST over the tropical Indian Ocean. The forecasted SST over the tropical Indian Ocean is the predictor in this model, which differs significantly from other WPSH prediction methods. A 26-year independent hindcast experiment from 1983 to 2008 is conducted and validated in which the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is compared with that driven by the persisted SST. Results indicate that the skill score of the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is substantial.
