NCC_CGCM模式的我国夏季降水集合预报方法效果评估及改进

通过对国家气候中心全球海气耦合模式(NCC_CGCM)1983～2006年48个不同初值样本的我国夏季降水预报(回报)、等权重集合预报及二次非线性订正预报的评估效果比较,其中订正预报的平均效果比等权重集合预报的平均效果好,但总体平均预报效果都不高。在评估中发现,48个样本在不同地区的预报效果的差异显著,正相关显著区域出现的位置各不相同,有的样本出现在江南,有的出现在东北,还有的出现在黄淮等地,因此提出了用历史回报的相关系数构建新的集合预报。试验表明,新集合预报的平均效果优于等权重集合预报、二次非线性订正预报和业务系统中现有的集成方法。

某医院楼宇自控系统中中央空调冷却水系统节能措施的实现

本文介绍在工程实践中,利用楼宇自动化系统技术对中央空调冷却水系统中的冷却塔进行节能控制的一种策略的算法。

动力制冷机组运行策略优化

原工厂动力制冷机组以溴化锂制冷机为主,经过几年装备水平提升,高耗能溴化锂制冷机组全部更新淘汰,形成以电制冷机为主、板式换热器为辅的制冷机组。原有的制冷机组运行策略不再适合现有的制冷机组,而现在采取的制冷机组运行策略存在一定的问题,有必要对制冷机组运行策略进行优化。通过对制冷机组及板式换热器历史运行数据分析,掌握了机组运行状况,在此基础上又根据季节变化,空调系统冷负荷率不一致的特点,优化了制冷机组冬季运行策略与夏季运行策略,保证机组运行在最佳的经济运行期间。

变新风量空调系统的设计与应用

随着建筑节能效果的提升,传统的集中式空调设计方式已无法满足人的舒适度和降低能耗的要求。文章介绍变新风量空调系统,探讨了系统设计及控制原理,通过焓湿图分析过渡季节新风最大化的新风比值及适用时间段,并结合工程实例对其进行论证。

高湿地区吊顶冷辐射空调的应用与评价

以工程案例,介绍了南方地区冷辐射空调的系统结构与末端型式,并通过代表性逐时气象参数、室内实录逐时温湿度参数、过渡与夏季运行模式等说明吊顶冷辐射空调系统的运行特点与注意事项;实现民用建筑空调在相对温度上作出热舒适Ⅰ级等级评价。

East China Summer Rainfall during ENSO Decaying Years Simulated by a Regional Climate Model

The performance of the Climate version of the Regional Eta-coordinate Model （CREM）, a regional climate model developed by State Key Laboratory of Numerical modeling for Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics/Institute of Atmospheric Physics （LASG/IAP）, in simulating rainfall anomalies during the ENSO decaying summers from 1982 to 2002 was evalu- ated. The added value of rainfall simulation relative to reanalysis data and the sources of model bias were studied. Results showed that the model simulated rainfall anomalies moderately well. The model did well at capturing the above-normal rainfall along the Yangtze River valley （YRV） during E1 Nifio decaying summers and the below and above-normal rainfall centers along the YRV and the Huaihe River valley （HRV）, respectively, during La Nifia decaying summers. These features were not evident in rainfall products derived from the reanalysis, indicating that rainfall simulation did add value. The main limitations of the model were that the simulated rainfall anomalies along the YRV were far stronger and weaker in magnitude than the observations during E1 Nifio decaying summers and La Nifia decaying summers, respectively. The stronger magnitude above-normal rainfall during E1 Nifio decaying summers was due to a stronger northward transport of water vapor in the lower troposphere, mostly from moisture advection. An artificial, above-normal rainfall center was seen in the region north to 35°N, which was associated with stronger northward water vapor transport. Both lower tropospheric circulation bias and a wetter model atmosphere contributed to the bias caused by water vapor transport. There was a stronger southward water vapor transport from the southern boundary of the model during La Nifia decaying summers; less remaining water vapor caused anomalously weaker rainfall in the model as compared to observations.

The Extreme Summer Precipitation over East China during 1982-2007 Simulated by the LASG/IAP Regional Climate Model

The extreme summer precipitation over East China during 1982-2007 was simulated using the LASG/IAP regional climate model CREM(the Climate version of a Regional Eta-coordinate Model).The results show that the probability density functions(PDFs) of precipitation intensities are reasonably simulated,except that the PDFs of light and moderate rain are underestimated and that the PDFs of heavy rain are overestimated.The extreme precipitation amount(R95p) and the percent contribution of extreme precipitation to the total precipitation(R95pt) are also reasonably reproduced by the CREM.However,the R95p and R95pt over most of East China are generally overestimated,while the R95p along the coastal area of South China(SC) is underestimated.The bias of R95pt is consistent with the bias of precipitation intensity on wet days(SDII).The interannual variation for R95p anomalies(PC1) is well simulated,but that of R95pt anomalies(PC2) is poorly simulated.The skill of the model in simulating PC1(PC2) increases(decreases) from north to south.The bias of water vapor transport associated with the 95th percentile of summer daily precipitation(WVTr95) explains well the bias of the simulated extreme precipitation.

An Effective Approach for Improving the Real-Time Prediction of Summer Rainfall over China

This paper has two purposes. One is to evaluate the ability of an atmospheric general circulation model (IAP9L-AGCM) to predict summer rainfall over China one season in advance. The other is to propose a new approach to improve the predictions made by the model. First, a set of hindcast experiments for summer climate over China during 1982-2010 are performed from the perspective of real-time prediction with the IAP9L-AGCM model and the IAP ENSO prediction system. Then a new approach that effectively combines the hind-cast with its correction is proposed to further improve the model's predictive ability. A systematic evaluation reveals that the model's real-time predictions for 41 stations across China show significant improvement using this new approach, especially in the lower reaches between the Yellow River and Yangtze River valleys.

Projected Changes in Asian Summer Monsoon in RCP Scenarios of CMIP5

Responses of the Asian Summer Monsoon(ASM) in future projections have been studied based on two core future projections of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) coordinated experiments with the IAP-coupled model FGOALS_s2(the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model).The projected changes of the ASM in climatological mean and interannual variability were respectively reported.Both the South Asian Summer Monsoon(SASM) and the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM) were intensified in their climatology,featuring increased monsoon precipitation and an enhanced monsoon lower-level westerly jet flow.Accordingly,the amplitude of the annual cycle of rainfall over East Asia(EA) is enhanced,thereby indicating a more abrupt monsoon onset.After the EA monsoon onset,the EASM marched farther northward in the future scenarios than in the historical runs.In the interannual variability,the leading pattern of the EASM,defined by the first multi-variable EOF analysis over EA,explains more of the total variances in the warmest future scenario,specifically,Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP8.5).Also,the correlation coefficients analysis suggests that the relationship between the EASM interannual variations and ENSO was significantly strengthened in the future projections,which may indicate improved predictability of the EASM interannual variations.

Simulation of the western North Pacific subtropical high in El Ni?o decaying summers by CMIP5 AGCMs

The performances of CMIP5 atmospheric general circulation models （AGCMs） in simulating the western North Pacific subtropical high （WNPSH） in El Nino decaying summers are examined in this study. Results show that most models can reproduce the spatial pattern of both climatological and anomalous circulation associated with the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers. Most CMIP5 AGCMs can capture the westward shift of the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers compared with the climatological location. With respect to the sub-seasonal variation of the WNPSH, the performances of these AGCMs in reproducing the northward jump of the WNPSH are better than simulating the eastward retreat of the WNPSH from July to August. Twenty-one out of twenty-two （20 out of 22） models can reasonably reproduce the northward jump of the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers （climatology）, while only 7 out of 22 （8 out of 22） AGCMs can reasonably reproduce the eastward retreat of the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers （climatology）. In addition, there is a close connection between the climatological WNPSH location bias and that in El Nino decaying summers.

Circulation Patterns of Summer Monsoon Corresponding to Two Kinds of Indices over the South China Sea

The characteristics of circulation corresponding to two kinds of indices of summer monsoon onset over the South China Sea (SCS) have been discussed using the reanalysis data of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research. It is found that there are two patterns of deep convection that occur at different locations and influence the summer monsoon onset over the SCS. One is over the Asia continent and the western Pacific corresponding to the southwesterly of summer monsoon prevailing over the northern and central part of the SCS, while the other is near the Philippines that affects the westerly summer monsoon as prevailing over the central and southern part of the SCS. Since these two kinds of convection affecting the summer monsoon onset do not always occur together, thus the summer monsoon onset time is different when determined by various indices.

Dynamical Downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis for China:Climatic Means during 1981–2010

This study presents a dynamically downscaled climatology over East Asia using the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model, forced by the Twentieth Century Reanalysis （20CR-v2）. The whole experiment is a 111-year （1900--2010） continuous run at 50 km horizontal resolution. Comparisons of climatic means and seasonal cycles among observations, 20CR-v2, and WRF results during the last 30 years （1981-2010） in China are presented, with a focus on sur- face air temperature and precipitation in both summer and winter. The WRF results reproduce the main features of surface air temperature in the two seasons in China, and outperform 20CR-v2 in regional details due to topog- raphic forcing. Summer surface air temperature biases are reduced by as much as 1℃-2℃. For precipitation, the simulation results reproduce the decreasing pattern from Southeast to Northwest China in winter. For summer rainfall, the WRF simulation results reproduce the correct magnitude and position of heavy rainfall around the southeastern coastal area, and are better than 20CR-v2. One of the significant improvements is that an unrealistic center of summer precipitation in Southeast China present in 20CR-v2 is eliminated. However, the simulated results underestimate winter surface air temperature in northern China and winter rainfall in some regions in southeastern China. The mean seasonal cycles of surface air tempera- ture and precipitation are captured well over most of sub-regions by the WRF model.

Teleconnection Patterns along the Asian Jet Associated with Different Combinations of Convection Oscillations over the Indian Continent and Western North Pacific during Summer

A zonal teleconnection has been found along the Asian jet over the Eurasian continent during summer. In this study, the authors investigated circulation anomalies in the extratropics, in particular for the zonal teleconnection, under different combinations of subtropical convection anomalies over the northern Indian continent （IND） and the westem North Pacific （WNP）. The outof-phase configuration （i.e., stronger （weaker） IND convection and weaker （stronger） WNP convection） was found to be more common than the in-phase configuration （i.e., stronger （weaker） IND convection and stronger （weaker） WNP convection）, which is consistent with previous results. Composite results indicated that circulation anomalies for out-of-phase configurations of 30-60-day convection oscillations are much stronger in the middle latitudes than those for in-phase configurations. In addition, zonal teleconnection patterns are predominant for the out-of-phase configurations, particularly for the configuration of strong IND convection and weak WNP convec- tion; however, they are either weak or obscure for the in-phase configurations. These results suggest that the zonal teleconnection pattem along the Asian jet is dependent on different combinations of the 1ND and WNP subtropical convection anomalies.

Effects of spectral nudging on the 2010 East Asia summer monsoon using WRF model

The performance of spectral nudging in an investigation of the 2010 East Asia summer monsoon was assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced by 1-degree NCEP Global Final Analysis (FNL). Two pairs of experiments were made, spectral nudging (SP) and non-spectral nudging (NOSP), with five members in each group. The members were distinguished by different initial times, and the analysis was based on the ensemble mean of the two simulation pairs. The SP was able to constrain error growth in large-scale circulation in upper-level, during simulation, and generate realistic regional scale patterns. The main focus was the model ability to simulate precipitation. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product was used for precipitation verification. Mean precipitation magnitude was generally overestimated by WRF. Nevertheless, SP simulations suppressed overestimation relative to the NOSP experiments. Compared to TRMM, SP also improved model simulation of precipitation in spatial and temporal distributions, with the ability to reproduce movement of rainbands. However, extreme precipitation events were suppressed in the SP simulations.

Improving the Seasonal Forecast of Summer Precipitation in China Using a Dynamical-Statistical Approach

A dynamical-statistical post-processing approach is applied to seasonal precipitation forecasts in China during the summer.The data are ensemble-mean seasonal forecasts in summer (June August) from four atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) in the second phase of the Canadian Historical Forecasting Project (HFP2) from 1969 to 2001.This dynamical-statistical approach is designed based on the relationship between the 500 geopotential height (Z500) forecast and the observed sea surface temperature (SST) to calibrate the precipitation forecasts.The results show that the post-processing can improve summer precipitation forecasts for many areas in China.Further examination shows that this post-processing approach is very effective in reducing the model-dependent part of the errors,which are associated with GCMs.The possible mechanisms behind the forecast's improvements are investigated.

Uncertainty in projections of the South Asian summer monsoon under global warming by CMIP6 models:Role of tropospheric meridional thermal contrast

Driven by the increase in CO_(2)concentration,climate models reach a consensus that the large-scale circulation of the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM) becomes weakened but with different magnitudes.This study investigates the major uncertainty sources of the SASM response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO_(2)(abrupt-4×CO_(2))in 18 models of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.The projected weakening of the SASM indicated by both zonal and meridional monsoon circulation indices is closely linked to decreases in the meridional gradient of upper-tropospheric temperature between Eurasia and the Indian Ocean(EUTT-IUTT).A climate feedback-response analysis method is applied to linearly decompose the uncertainty of changes in EUTT-IUTT into the partial changes due to external forcing and internal processes of the earth-atmosphere column.Results show that the uncertainty of changes in EUTT-IUTT is contributed positively by the dominant atmospheric dynamic process,followed by the cloud shortwave radiative effect,and negatively by the surface latent heat flux and cloud longwave radiative effect.Contributions from CO_(2)forcing and other internal processes including albedo and water vapor feedbacks,oceanic heat storage,and sensible heat flux are found to be minor.

Teleconnection between Winter Arctic Oscillation and Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon in the Pre-Industry Simulation of a Coupled Climate Model

A 600-year pre-industrial simulation with Bergen Climate Model(BCM)Version 2 is used to investigate the linkage between winter Arctic Oscillation(AO)and the Southeast Asian summer monsoon(SEASM)on the inter-decadal timescale.The results indicate an in-phase relationship between the AO and SEASM with periods of approximately 16–32 and 60–80 years.During the positive phase of winter AO,an anomalous surface anti-cyclonic atmosphere circulation appears over North Pacific in winter.The corresponding anomalies in ocean circulation and surface heat flux,particularly the latent and sensible heat flux,resemble a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)-like sea surface temperature(SST)pattern.The AO-associated PDO-like winter SST can persist into summer and can therefore lead to inter-decadal variability of summer monsoon rainfall in East and Southeast Asia.

Optimal heat source for the interannual variability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon

Using 132-member experiments based on a linear baroclinic atmospheric model(LBM), this study investigates the optimal heat source forcing the interannual variability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon(WNPSM). The 132 members are forced by localized atmospheric heat sources distributed homogeneously over regions from 55°S to 55°N, each 10° latitude × 30° longitude in size. The atmospheric responses to all the heating constitute an ensemble to examine the relative contribution of each local heat source to the strength of the WNPSM. The result indicates that the combination of an atmospheric heating(cooling) source over the subtropical Northwest Pacific and a cooling(heating) source over the tropical Indian Ocean and the midlatitudes from China to the southern part of Japan is the pattern most effective at enhancing(weakening) the WNPSM.Besides, the optimal heat source pattern identified by the LBM simulations is similar to the observed atmospheric heating anomalies associated with WNPSM interannual variability. The results suggest that any external forcing that leads to a similar heating structure as the optimal thermal forcing pattern could lead to an anomalous WNPSM.

Does regional air–sea coupling improve the simulation of the summer monsoon over the western North Pacific in the WRF4 model?

A new regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model,WRF4-LICOM,was used to investigate the impacts of regional air–sea coupling on the simulation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon(WNPSM),with a focus on the normal WNPSM year 2005.Compared to WRF4,WRF4-LICOM improved the simulation of the summer mean monsoon rainfall,circulations,sea surface net heat fluxes,and propagations of the daily rainband over the WNP.The major differences between the models were found over the northern South China Sea and east of the Philippines.The warmer SST reduced the gross moist stability of the atmosphere and increased the upward latent heat flux,and then drove local ascending anomalies,which led to the increase of rainfall in WRF4-LICOM.The resultant enhanced atmospheric heating drove a low-level anomalous cyclone to its northwest,which reduced the simulated circulation biases in the stand-alone WRF4 model.The local observed daily SST over the WNP was a response to the overlying summer monsoon.In the WRF4 model,the modeled atmosphere exhibited passive response to the underlying daily SST anomalies.With the inclusion of regional air–sea coupling,the simulated daily SST–rainfall relationship was significantly improved.WRF4-LICOM is recommended for future dynamical downscaling of simulations and projections over this region.

The climatology and interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoonsimulated by a weakly coupled data assimilation system

With the motivation to improve the simulation of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) in coupled climate models, oceanic data assimilation(DA) was used in CAS-ESM-C(Chinese Academy of Sciences–Earth System Model–Climate Component) in this study. Observed sea surface temperature was assimilated into CAS-ESM-C. The climatology and interannual variability of the EASM simulated in CAS-ESM-C with DA were compared with a traditional AMIP-type run.Results showed that the climatological spatial pattern and annual cycle of precipitation in the western North Paci?c, and the ENSO-related and EASM-related EASM circulation and precipitation, were largely improved. As shown in this study, air–sea coupling is important for EASM simulation. In addition, oceanic DA synchronizes the coupled model with the real world without breaking the air–sea coupling process. These two successful factors make the assimilation experiment a more reasonable experimental design than traditional AMIP-type simulations.