By using,summer temperature data in 26 stations from 1951 to 2003, the variation characteristics of summer temperature in Northeast China （NET） were analyzed based on the background of climate wanning. The results s...By using,summer temperature data in 26 stations from 1951 to 2003, the variation characteristics of summer temperature in Northeast China （NET） were analyzed based on the background of climate wanning. The results showed that the warming in summer was 0.15~C/10a in Northeast China, which was higher than that on the global, Northern Hemisphere or Northeast Asia scale in the recent 50 years. The responses of NET to global warming were shown in 3 aspects mainly. Firstly, it became warm and the average temperature increased in summer; secondly, the temperature variability increased, which displayed the increase of climatic instability; thirdly, the disaster of low temperature decreased and high temperature damage increased obviously, but the disaster of low temperature still existed in some areas under global warming background, which would be worthy of notice further.展开更多
According to the basic characteristics of the activities of summer monsoon in the South China Sea, a standardized index, sI, has been designed that integrates a dynamic factor (southwesterly component) and a thermodyn...According to the basic characteristics of the activities of summer monsoon in the South China Sea, a standardized index, sI, has been designed that integrates a dynamic factor (southwesterly component) and a thermodynamic factor (OLR) for the indication of summer monsoon in the South China Sea. With the index determined for individual months of June, July and August and the entire summertime from 1975 to 1999, specific months and years are indicated that are either strong or weak in monsoon intensity. The variation is studied for the patterns and sI抯 relationship is revealed with the onset of summer monsoon and the precipitation in Guangdong province and China. The results show that there are quasi-10 and quasi-3-4 year cycles in the interannual variation of the monsoon over the past 25 years. When it has an early (late) onset, the summer monsoon is usually strong (weak). In the strong (weak) monsoon years, precipitation tends to be more (less) in the first raining season of the year but normal or less (normal) in the second, in the province, but it would be more (less) in northeastern China and most parts of the northern China and south of the lower reaches of the Changjiang River and less (more) in the middle and lower reaches of the river, western part of northern China and western China.展开更多
By using the 40-year NCEP (1958-1997) grid point reanalysis meteorological data, we analyzed the inter-decadal variation on the climatic characteristics of the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon. The results are ...By using the 40-year NCEP (1958-1997) grid point reanalysis meteorological data, we analyzed the inter-decadal variation on the climatic characteristics of the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon. The results are as follows. (1) There was great difference on the onset date of the SCS summer monsoon between the first two decades and the last two decades. It was late on the 6th pentad of May for the first two decades and was on the 4th and 5th pentad of May for the next two decades. (2) Except for the third decade (1978-1987), the establishment of the monsoon rainfall was one to two pentads earlier than the onset of the summer monsoon in all other three decades. (3) The onset of the SCS monsoon is the result of the abrupt development and eastward advancement of the southwesterly monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. The four-decade analysis shows that there were abrupt development of the southwesterly monsoon over the Bay of Bengal between the 3rd and 4th pentad of May, but there was great difference between its eastward movement and its onset intensity. These may have important effect to the earlier or later onset of the SCS summer monsoon. (4) During the onset of the SCS summer monsoon, there were great difference in the upper and lower circulation feature between the first two and the next two decades. At the lower troposphere of the first two decades, the Indian-Burma trough was stronger and the center of the subtropical high was located more eastward. At the upper troposphere, the northward movement of the center of subtropical high was large and located more northward after it landed on the Indo-China Peninsula. After comparison, we can see that the circulation feature of the last two decades was favorable to the establishment and development of the SCS summer monsoon.展开更多
Due to long-term time series and many elements, reanalysis data of National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） and European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） are widely used in present clim...Due to long-term time series and many elements, reanalysis data of National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） and European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） are widely used in present climate studies. Even so, there are discrepancies between NCEP and ECMWF reanalysis. Some climate fields may be better reproduced by NCEP than by ECMWF. On the other hand, ECMWF may describe some climate characteristics more realistically than NCEP. Xu et al.pointed out that NCEP data are of uncertainty when used for studying long-term trends of climate change. By comparing temperatures and pressures from NCEP and observation, it can be seen that NCEP data show higher reliability in the east and lower-latitudes of China than in its west and higher latitudes, NCEP temperature is of more reality than pressure and NCEP data after 1979 are closer to the observations than before. Yang et al.also revealed some serious problems of NCEP data in the north of subtropical Asia. Regional differences of NCEP data in representation are also explored by other studiest. As for seasonal variability, NCEP simulates relatively real conditions of Chinese summer and annual mean but winter data are relatively bad, as in comparisons of NCEP data wity China surface station observations by Zhao et al.Moreover, Trenberth and Stepaniak showed that ECMWF data had better energy budgets than NCEP data for pure pressure coordinates are adopted by ECMWF. Renfrew et al. compared NCF, P data to ECMWF data in terms of surface fluxes and the results indicate that the time series of surface sensible and latent heating fluxes from ECMWF are 13% and 10% larger than the observations and those from NCEP would be 51% and 27% larger than the observations, respectively. So, Renfrew et al. suggested that it be more appropriate to drive ocean models by ECMWF data. Based on comparisons of multiple elements by some scientists, it seems that ECMWF data are better than NCEP data on global, hemispheric and regional scales. Whereas, reanalysis have big errors in some regions in contrast to observations, especially the variables related to humidity. Since that, researchers should compare the two sets of data and select a better one according to specific problems.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to provide references for development of industries engaging in flowers and trees in Beipei area in Chongqing. [Method] The occurring trend, intensity trend of summer drought, relationship of i...[Objective] The aim was to provide references for development of industries engaging in flowers and trees in Beipei area in Chongqing. [Method] The occurring trend, intensity trend of summer drought, relationship of intensity with rainfall and extremely highest temperature, occurring trend during initial period of summer drought and the effects in mountain cities were analyzed, based on information on lasting period, rainfall, average temperature, extremely highest temperature of sum- mer drought in Beipei area in mountain cities during 1981-2010 and, growth condi- tion and phenological phenomena of Michelia champaca during 2005-2007. [Result] The occurring probability of summer drought in mountain cities was 57% and the probabilities of light, moderate, heavy and extreme drought were 30%, 10%, 7% and 10%; intensity of summer drought was none of linear relation with rainfall and ex- tremely highest temperature. In summer drought, daily average rainfall was less than 0.9 ram; extremely highest temperature was 35.0-45.0 ℃ with probability at 30%; initial period of summer drought was from later June to middle August and of extreme drought was later June-later July; the ending period was early September. During drought, when the extremely highest temperature （〉35.0 ℃） occurred in three days within a Hou, flowers and trees were affected by the hot drought and when the extreme temperature （〉40.0 ℃） occurred in three days within a Hou, the plants were seriously affected. [Conclusion] Based on characters of summer drought, pre- cautions can be taken to reduce effects of summer drought on flowers and trees with the help of weather forecast.展开更多
By applying the OLR and wind data, rainfall data and the Madden and Julian Oscillation （MJO） index, the paper deals with in traseasonal oscillation features and interannual differences of the South China Sea （SCS）...By applying the OLR and wind data, rainfall data and the Madden and Julian Oscillation （MJO） index, the paper deals with in traseasonal oscillation features and interannual differences of the South China Sea （SCS） summer monsoon, distribution of its LF circulation and convection fields and rainfall, and path of summer monsoon ISO spreading, as well as impact of tropical IndoMJO on SCS summer monsoon ISO during 19792008. It is found that （1） there are three intraseasonal oscillations of the SCS summer monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation （ISO） in summer （from May to August） in the climate normal. The SCS summer monsoon ISO goes through six phases （exclusive of weak phase） at every complete fluctuation： developing, the strongest, weakening, restraining, the weakest, and recovering. Due to tropical LC convection spreading to the east and north, the LR convection and circulation fields in the lst3rd and 4th6th phases present the antiphase in the Arabian SeaWest Pa cific latitudinal band. Its corresponding rain bands in the lst3rd and 4th6th phases als present antiphase roughly. The rain band, mainly in tropical regions in the south of 20N, moves eastward with LR convection shifting eastward, while the rain band moves northward with LR convection shifting northward in East Asia （EA） subtropical regions in the north of 20N. （2） The SCS summer monsoon ISO presents significant interannual variations in intensity. There are three stronger monsoon in traseasonal oscillations in summer in the strong SCS monsoon ISO year. The first two oscillations from the tropical Indian Ocean ISO spread northward to the Bay of Bengal first, and then to the South China Sea （SCS） along the 10-20N latitudinal band. They are strengthened there and stimulate the ISO moving to the north to form the tropical IndoISO. Finally they spread to South China （SC） by relay way in the longitudelatitude direction. Moreover, in the weaker SCS summer monsoon ISO, the oscillation weakens greatly and irregularly in intensity with the weaker ISO spreading in the longitudelatitude direction. In average conditions, the tropical Indian ISO spreads to the SCS by about 20 days （one half ISO periods）. （3） MJO1 （the first modal of MJO index provided by the CPC） averaged value in the lst2nd pentads of April has the negative correlation with the SCS monsoon ISO intensity. The tropical IndoMJO is slightly stronger in the subsequent May to August when it is more ac tive in the lst2nd pentads of April, and the ISO also spreads strongly to the SCS, so that the SCS summer monsoon ISO strengthens. Conversely, the SCS summer monsoon ISO weakens. The abnormal MJO in the lst2nd pentads of April contrib utes to a certain theory basis for us to predict the subsequent SCS summer monsoon ISO intensity and analyze the related re gions＇ abnormal rainfall.展开更多
基金U nder the auspices of A pplication Fund of A griculture Science and Technology Fruits of M inistry of Science andTechnology ofChina (N o.04EFN 217400411)
文摘By using,summer temperature data in 26 stations from 1951 to 2003, the variation characteristics of summer temperature in Northeast China （NET） were analyzed based on the background of climate wanning. The results showed that the warming in summer was 0.15~C/10a in Northeast China, which was higher than that on the global, Northern Hemisphere or Northeast Asia scale in the recent 50 years. The responses of NET to global warming were shown in 3 aspects mainly. Firstly, it became warm and the average temperature increased in summer; secondly, the temperature variability increased, which displayed the increase of climatic instability; thirdly, the disaster of low temperature decreased and high temperature damage increased obviously, but the disaster of low temperature still existed in some areas under global warming background, which would be worthy of notice further.
基金 Research on the Formation Mechanism and Prediction Theory of Severe Climate Disasters in China (G1998040900(I))
文摘According to the basic characteristics of the activities of summer monsoon in the South China Sea, a standardized index, sI, has been designed that integrates a dynamic factor (southwesterly component) and a thermodynamic factor (OLR) for the indication of summer monsoon in the South China Sea. With the index determined for individual months of June, July and August and the entire summertime from 1975 to 1999, specific months and years are indicated that are either strong or weak in monsoon intensity. The variation is studied for the patterns and sI抯 relationship is revealed with the onset of summer monsoon and the precipitation in Guangdong province and China. The results show that there are quasi-10 and quasi-3-4 year cycles in the interannual variation of the monsoon over the past 25 years. When it has an early (late) onset, the summer monsoon is usually strong (weak). In the strong (weak) monsoon years, precipitation tends to be more (less) in the first raining season of the year but normal or less (normal) in the second, in the province, but it would be more (less) in northeastern China and most parts of the northern China and south of the lower reaches of the Changjiang River and less (more) in the middle and lower reaches of the river, western part of northern China and western China.
基金National Scaling Project A The Scientific Experiment on South China Sea Monsoon Part I from the fund for (G1998040900)
文摘By using the 40-year NCEP (1958-1997) grid point reanalysis meteorological data, we analyzed the inter-decadal variation on the climatic characteristics of the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon. The results are as follows. (1) There was great difference on the onset date of the SCS summer monsoon between the first two decades and the last two decades. It was late on the 6th pentad of May for the first two decades and was on the 4th and 5th pentad of May for the next two decades. (2) Except for the third decade (1978-1987), the establishment of the monsoon rainfall was one to two pentads earlier than the onset of the summer monsoon in all other three decades. (3) The onset of the SCS monsoon is the result of the abrupt development and eastward advancement of the southwesterly monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. The four-decade analysis shows that there were abrupt development of the southwesterly monsoon over the Bay of Bengal between the 3rd and 4th pentad of May, but there was great difference between its eastward movement and its onset intensity. These may have important effect to the earlier or later onset of the SCS summer monsoon. (4) During the onset of the SCS summer monsoon, there were great difference in the upper and lower circulation feature between the first two and the next two decades. At the lower troposphere of the first two decades, the Indian-Burma trough was stronger and the center of the subtropical high was located more eastward. At the upper troposphere, the northward movement of the center of subtropical high was large and located more northward after it landed on the Indo-China Peninsula. After comparison, we can see that the circulation feature of the last two decades was favorable to the establishment and development of the SCS summer monsoon.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China (40505019) Natural Science Foundation of GuangdongProvince (5300001) Open Foundation of Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,CMA
文摘Due to long-term time series and many elements, reanalysis data of National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） and European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） are widely used in present climate studies. Even so, there are discrepancies between NCEP and ECMWF reanalysis. Some climate fields may be better reproduced by NCEP than by ECMWF. On the other hand, ECMWF may describe some climate characteristics more realistically than NCEP. Xu et al.pointed out that NCEP data are of uncertainty when used for studying long-term trends of climate change. By comparing temperatures and pressures from NCEP and observation, it can be seen that NCEP data show higher reliability in the east and lower-latitudes of China than in its west and higher latitudes, NCEP temperature is of more reality than pressure and NCEP data after 1979 are closer to the observations than before. Yang et al.also revealed some serious problems of NCEP data in the north of subtropical Asia. Regional differences of NCEP data in representation are also explored by other studiest. As for seasonal variability, NCEP simulates relatively real conditions of Chinese summer and annual mean but winter data are relatively bad, as in comparisons of NCEP data wity China surface station observations by Zhao et al.Moreover, Trenberth and Stepaniak showed that ECMWF data had better energy budgets than NCEP data for pure pressure coordinates are adopted by ECMWF. Renfrew et al. compared NCF, P data to ECMWF data in terms of surface fluxes and the results indicate that the time series of surface sensible and latent heating fluxes from ECMWF are 13% and 10% larger than the observations and those from NCEP would be 51% and 27% larger than the observations, respectively. So, Renfrew et al. suggested that it be more appropriate to drive ocean models by ECMWF data. Based on comparisons of multiple elements by some scientists, it seems that ECMWF data are better than NCEP data on global, hemispheric and regional scales. Whereas, reanalysis have big errors in some regions in contrast to observations, especially the variables related to humidity. Since that, researchers should compare the two sets of data and select a better one according to specific problems.
基金Supported by Key Program of Chongqing Meteorological Bureau(ywgg-201217)~~
文摘[Objective] The aim was to provide references for development of industries engaging in flowers and trees in Beipei area in Chongqing. [Method] The occurring trend, intensity trend of summer drought, relationship of intensity with rainfall and extremely highest temperature, occurring trend during initial period of summer drought and the effects in mountain cities were analyzed, based on information on lasting period, rainfall, average temperature, extremely highest temperature of sum- mer drought in Beipei area in mountain cities during 1981-2010 and, growth condi- tion and phenological phenomena of Michelia champaca during 2005-2007. [Result] The occurring probability of summer drought in mountain cities was 57% and the probabilities of light, moderate, heavy and extreme drought were 30%, 10%, 7% and 10%; intensity of summer drought was none of linear relation with rainfall and ex- tremely highest temperature. In summer drought, daily average rainfall was less than 0.9 ram; extremely highest temperature was 35.0-45.0 ℃ with probability at 30%; initial period of summer drought was from later June to middle August and of extreme drought was later June-later July; the ending period was early September. During drought, when the extremely highest temperature （〉35.0 ℃） occurred in three days within a Hou, flowers and trees were affected by the hot drought and when the extreme temperature （〉40.0 ℃） occurred in three days within a Hou, the plants were seriously affected. [Conclusion] Based on characters of summer drought, pre- cautions can be taken to reduce effects of summer drought on flowers and trees with the help of weather forecast.
基金supported by Special Fund for the Meteorological Scientific Research of Public Sector(Grant No.GYHY200806004)National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2012CB956001)
文摘By applying the OLR and wind data, rainfall data and the Madden and Julian Oscillation （MJO） index, the paper deals with in traseasonal oscillation features and interannual differences of the South China Sea （SCS） summer monsoon, distribution of its LF circulation and convection fields and rainfall, and path of summer monsoon ISO spreading, as well as impact of tropical IndoMJO on SCS summer monsoon ISO during 19792008. It is found that （1） there are three intraseasonal oscillations of the SCS summer monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation （ISO） in summer （from May to August） in the climate normal. The SCS summer monsoon ISO goes through six phases （exclusive of weak phase） at every complete fluctuation： developing, the strongest, weakening, restraining, the weakest, and recovering. Due to tropical LC convection spreading to the east and north, the LR convection and circulation fields in the lst3rd and 4th6th phases present the antiphase in the Arabian SeaWest Pa cific latitudinal band. Its corresponding rain bands in the lst3rd and 4th6th phases als present antiphase roughly. The rain band, mainly in tropical regions in the south of 20N, moves eastward with LR convection shifting eastward, while the rain band moves northward with LR convection shifting northward in East Asia （EA） subtropical regions in the north of 20N. （2） The SCS summer monsoon ISO presents significant interannual variations in intensity. There are three stronger monsoon in traseasonal oscillations in summer in the strong SCS monsoon ISO year. The first two oscillations from the tropical Indian Ocean ISO spread northward to the Bay of Bengal first, and then to the South China Sea （SCS） along the 10-20N latitudinal band. They are strengthened there and stimulate the ISO moving to the north to form the tropical IndoISO. Finally they spread to South China （SC） by relay way in the longitudelatitude direction. Moreover, in the weaker SCS summer monsoon ISO, the oscillation weakens greatly and irregularly in intensity with the weaker ISO spreading in the longitudelatitude direction. In average conditions, the tropical Indian ISO spreads to the SCS by about 20 days （one half ISO periods）. （3） MJO1 （the first modal of MJO index provided by the CPC） averaged value in the lst2nd pentads of April has the negative correlation with the SCS monsoon ISO intensity. The tropical IndoMJO is slightly stronger in the subsequent May to August when it is more ac tive in the lst2nd pentads of April, and the ISO also spreads strongly to the SCS, so that the SCS summer monsoon ISO strengthens. Conversely, the SCS summer monsoon ISO weakens. The abnormal MJO in the lst2nd pentads of April contrib utes to a certain theory basis for us to predict the subsequent SCS summer monsoon ISO intensity and analyze the related re gions＇ abnormal rainfall.
