A joint statistical-dynamical method addressing both the internal decadal variability and effect of anthropogenic forcing was developed to predict the decadal components of East Asian surface air temperature(EATs)for ...A joint statistical-dynamical method addressing both the internal decadal variability and effect of anthropogenic forcing was developed to predict the decadal components of East Asian surface air temperature(EATs)for three decades(2010–2040).As previous studies have revealed that the internal variability of EATs(EATs_int)is influenced mainly by the ocean,we first analyzed the lead-lag connections between EATs_int and three sea surface temperature(SST)multidecadal modes using instrumental records from 1901 to 1999.Based on the lead-lag connections,a multiple linear regression was constructed with the three SST modes as predictors.The hindcast for the years from 2000 to 2005 indicated the regression model had high skill in simulating the observational EATs_int.Therefore,the prediction for EATs_int(Re_EATs_int)was obtained by the regression model based on quasi-periods of the decadal oceanic modes.External forcing from greenhouse gases is likely associated with global warming.Using monthly global land surface air temperature from historical and projection simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)4.5 scenario of 19 Coupled General Circulation Models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5),we predicted the curve of EATs(EATs_trend)relative to1970–1999 by a second-order fit.EATs_int and EATs_trend were combined to form the reconstructed EATs(Re_EATs).It was expected that a fluctuating evolution of Re_EATs would decrease slightly from 2015 to 2030 and increase gradually thereafter.Compared with the decadal prediction in CMIP5 models,Re_EATs was qualitatively in agreement with the predictions of most of the models and the multi-model ensemble mean,indicating that the joint statistical-dynamical approach for EAT is rational.展开更多
As multistage gear transmission systems are complex and precise, the flexibility of shaft can influence the dynamic response of system. In order to study dynamic response of the system, we build the rigid model of gea...As multistage gear transmission systems are complex and precise, the flexibility of shaft can influence the dynamic response of system. In order to study dynamic response of the system, we build the rigid model of gear system and the finite element model of the gear shaft. virtual prototype technology, and a contrast between rigid The rigid-flex coupling model is established with the model and rigid-flex coupling model is constructed. With these methods, the dynamic responses with different rotation speeds and different loading magnitudes are examined. We also analyze the influence of shaft flexibility, rotation speeds and loading magnitudes on the vibration characteristics of gear transmission systems.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41375085,41421004)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA05090406)
文摘A joint statistical-dynamical method addressing both the internal decadal variability and effect of anthropogenic forcing was developed to predict the decadal components of East Asian surface air temperature(EATs)for three decades(2010–2040).As previous studies have revealed that the internal variability of EATs(EATs_int)is influenced mainly by the ocean,we first analyzed the lead-lag connections between EATs_int and three sea surface temperature(SST)multidecadal modes using instrumental records from 1901 to 1999.Based on the lead-lag connections,a multiple linear regression was constructed with the three SST modes as predictors.The hindcast for the years from 2000 to 2005 indicated the regression model had high skill in simulating the observational EATs_int.Therefore,the prediction for EATs_int(Re_EATs_int)was obtained by the regression model based on quasi-periods of the decadal oceanic modes.External forcing from greenhouse gases is likely associated with global warming.Using monthly global land surface air temperature from historical and projection simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)4.5 scenario of 19 Coupled General Circulation Models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5),we predicted the curve of EATs(EATs_trend)relative to1970–1999 by a second-order fit.EATs_int and EATs_trend were combined to form the reconstructed EATs(Re_EATs).It was expected that a fluctuating evolution of Re_EATs would decrease slightly from 2015 to 2030 and increase gradually thereafter.Compared with the decadal prediction in CMIP5 models,Re_EATs was qualitatively in agreement with the predictions of most of the models and the multi-model ensemble mean,indicating that the joint statistical-dynamical approach for EAT is rational.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71401173)
文摘As multistage gear transmission systems are complex and precise, the flexibility of shaft can influence the dynamic response of system. In order to study dynamic response of the system, we build the rigid model of gear system and the finite element model of the gear shaft. virtual prototype technology, and a contrast between rigid The rigid-flex coupling model is established with the model and rigid-flex coupling model is constructed. With these methods, the dynamic responses with different rotation speeds and different loading magnitudes are examined. We also analyze the influence of shaft flexibility, rotation speeds and loading magnitudes on the vibration characteristics of gear transmission systems.
