输油管线多参数组合预警探讨

桩西油田位于桩西北部滩海区域,自然环境恶劣,该区域的集油管线具有较大的泄漏风险。多因素分析桩西油田集油管线运行特点及安全风险,发现传统巡检方式不能及时预警管线泄漏。结合油田信息化建设,采取基于多参数分析的输油管线泄漏检测预警方案,改变生产预警管控模式,可以将事后治理转为事前预警预防,极大地缓解了油气生产环保压力同时也为油田信息化提升提供了强有力的技术支撑。

金川二矿区微震监测区域多参数权重预警模型与对策分析

金川二矿区进入深部开采,采准工程频发冒顶片帮、底鼓、蠕变变形破坏等强烈的地压显现现象,通过现场调研,应用微震监测技术在1150~850 m建立了一套40通道的全数字型微震监测系统,应用波形特征、频谱特征及声音还原识别技术,对典型爆破、噪音和微震事件进行分类研究,遴选出的微震事件数据经过处理和时序多参数分析与统计,以此为依据建立了微震监测区域多参数权重预警模型与对策,实现了二矿区深部安全高效开采。

Early warning of rock mass instability based on multi-field coupling analysis and microseismic monitoring

In order to overcome the limitation that rock mass instability warnings are caused by a lack of deep consideration of the inherent mechanism of disaster formation, early warning signs of rock mass instability were detected and multi-field coupling was analyzed. A multi-field coupling model of a damaged rock mass was established. The relationship between microseismic activity parameters and rock mass stability was analyzed, and a multi-parameter early warning index system was established and its solution program was compiled. Based on the D-S data fusion theory,an early warning model of rock mass instability combining multi-field coupling analysis and microseismic monitoring was constructed. Taking an underground mine stope as an object, the multi-field coupling model and its solution program were used to analyze mining response characteristics. The seismic field data were used to verify the accuracy of the multi-field coupling analysis. The early warning model was used to predict the instability of stope rock mass,and the early warning result is consistent with a real-world scenario.

基于数据挖掘的一回路小泄漏故障预警研究

一回路小泄漏的过度演变有可能引起严重事故,为防止事故发生,提出一种基于多特征参数综合的改进高斯混合模型-灰色关联度法-熵权法(GMM-GRA-EWM)的故障预警方法。首先,对一回路小泄漏的动态运行特性进行机理分析,确定了预警特征参数。然后,根据已确定的预警特征参数,结合熵权法和灰色关联度法,建立多参数综合预警模型。最后,采用相关性分析、改进高斯混合模型算法有效学习了大量数据的统计特性,使预警阈值在不同工况下具有自适应能力。结果表明,该方法在变工况运行条件下,可以有效达到预警。相较于单参数和固定阈值预警,该方法具有更好的稳定性,预警更加准确、有效、及时,可为实现一回路系统的状态监测提供参考。