Coordinated numerical ensemble experiments with six different state-of-the-art atmosphere models were used to evaluate and quantify the impact of global SST(from reanalysis data)on the early winter Arctic warming duri...Coordinated numerical ensemble experiments with six different state-of-the-art atmosphere models were used to evaluate and quantify the impact of global SST(from reanalysis data)on the early winter Arctic warming during 1982-2014.Two sets of experiments were designed:in the first set(EXP1),OISSTv2 daily sea-ice concentration and SST variations were used as the lower boundary forcing,while in the second set(EXP2)the SST data were replaced by the daily SST climatology.In the results,the multi-model ensemble mean of EXP1 showed a nearsurface(~850 hPa)warming trend of 0.4℃/10 yr,which was 80%of the warming trend in the reanalysis.The simulated warming trend was robust across the six models,with a magnitude of 0.36-0.50℃/10 yr.The global SST could explain most of the simulated warming trend in EXP1 in the mid and low troposphere over the Arctic,and accounted for 58%of the simulated near-surface warming.The results also suggest that the uppertropospheric warming(~200 hPa)over the Arctic in the reanalysis is likely not a forced signal;rather,it is caused by natural climate variability.The source regions that can potentially impact the early winter Arctic warming are explored and the limitations of the study are discussed.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China[grant number 2017YFE0111800]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41790472 and 41661144005]partly supported by the EU H2020 Blue-Action project[grant number 727852]。
文摘Coordinated numerical ensemble experiments with six different state-of-the-art atmosphere models were used to evaluate and quantify the impact of global SST(from reanalysis data)on the early winter Arctic warming during 1982-2014.Two sets of experiments were designed:in the first set(EXP1),OISSTv2 daily sea-ice concentration and SST variations were used as the lower boundary forcing,while in the second set(EXP2)the SST data were replaced by the daily SST climatology.In the results,the multi-model ensemble mean of EXP1 showed a nearsurface(~850 hPa)warming trend of 0.4℃/10 yr,which was 80%of the warming trend in the reanalysis.The simulated warming trend was robust across the six models,with a magnitude of 0.36-0.50℃/10 yr.The global SST could explain most of the simulated warming trend in EXP1 in the mid and low troposphere over the Arctic,and accounted for 58%of the simulated near-surface warming.The results also suggest that the uppertropospheric warming(~200 hPa)over the Arctic in the reanalysis is likely not a forced signal;rather,it is caused by natural climate variability.The source regions that can potentially impact the early winter Arctic warming are explored and the limitations of the study are discussed.
