战后以来日本纤维产业的转型——大国工业高质量发展的历史思考

工业的高质量发展过程,是一个后起工业大国走向现代工业强国的重要历史阶段。产业经济史研究表明,它是这类国家一个重要的学习工业化的过程,更是一个产业体系整体的结构性变革过程。如果需在工业化先行国家的实践中学习与认识工业高质量发展的历史规律,切实重视传统产业的改造这一结构性变革的薄弱环节,从根本上激发市场经济主体——企业的本源性创新自觉与创新动力。唯此,中国才能在全球化背景下、开放与融合式发展中,提升自己工业的发展质量,进而在深化结构性改革中推进现代化强国建设的历史进程。

金融结构特征与金融体系发展:大国的比较

各国金融机构特征及金融体系发展路径有着显著差异,看清这些差异并探究其主要决定因素有助于理解中国近30年来金融发展路径背后的逻辑并为今后的金融制度设计提供参考。纵观历史,一个高效的金融结构必然是金融演进客观规律在特定经济发展阶段下的适应性选择,各国金融结构的差异也普遍来自其不同发展阶段及经济特征。本文运用比较研究的方法,从金融资产负债表存量角度分析了中国与几个主要发达国家的金融结构特征,并总结出这些经济体的共性与差异及其背后的决定因素。具体来说:第一,总体视角看,各国金融体系普遍呈现规模增大、多元化、关联化的趋势,尽管中国金融结构仍以银行为主导,但复杂性同样大幅提高;第二,部门视角看,各国金融资产与负债结构存在巨大差别,中国最为显著的特征在于是所有比较样本中唯一政府净金融资产为正的国家,反映了特有的所有制结构及政府职能;第三,工具视角看,中国金融部门对非金融企业股权融资的支持力度明显不足,而债券工具则过度集中于金融部门。中国金融结构仍需要进一步强化工具和组织的多样性,同时缩短金融资源最终使用者与最终供给者的距离,抑制金融体系内部过度关联的倾向,强化金融服务实体的能力。

Comparison of the performance of the CRUSADE, ACUITY-HORIZONS, and ACTION bleeding scores in ACS patients undergoing PCI： insights from a cohort of 4939 patients in China

Background The CRUSADE, ACTION and ACUITY-HORIZONS scores are commonly used for predicting in-hospital major bleeding events in patients with acute coronary syndrome （ACS）, but the homogeneous nature of these models＇ population limits simple ex- trapolation to other local population. We aimed to compare the performance of the three risk models in Chinese patients. Methods We evaluated the performance of the three predicting scores for predicting in-hospital major bleeding events defined by thrombolysis in myocar- dial infarction （TIMI） serious （major and minor） episodes, in a cohort of Chinese ACS patients with either non-ST-elevation ACS （NSTE-ACS） or ST-elevation myocardial infarction （STEMI）. Calibration and discrimination of the three risk models were evaluated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and C-statistic, respectively. We compared the predictive accuracy of the risk scores by the Delong non-parametric test. Results TIMI serious bleeding rate was 1.1% overall （1.9% and 0.86% for STEMI and NSTE-ACS, respectively）. The CRUSADE, ACTION and ACUTIY-HOR/ZONS scores showed an adequate discriminatory capacity for major bleeding： in overall patients, the C-statistic was 0.80, 0.77, and 0.70, respectively; in NSTE-ACS patients, the C-statistic was 0.73, 0.72, and 0.64, respectively; in STEMI patients, the C-statistic was 0.91, 0.92, and 0.75, respectively. The C-statistic for the ACUITY-HORIZONS model was significantly lower than those of the CRUSADE and ACTION scores for the prediction of TIM/serious bleeding in overall patients （compared with CRUSADE, z = 3.83, P = 0.02; compared with ACTION, z = 3.51, P = 0.03）; in NSTE-ACS patients （compared with CRUSADE, z = 2.37, P = 0.01; compared with ACTION, z = 2.11, P = 0.04）, and in STEMI patients （compared with CRUSADE, z = 2.6.77, P = 0.02; compared with AC- TION, z = 7.91, P = 0.002）. No differences were observed when the CRUSADE and ACTION models were compared to each other, regard- less of overall patients （z = 0.68, P = 0.31） and both of ACS types （NSTE-ACS, z = 0.52, P = 0.60）, and STEMI patients （z = 0.36, P = 0.74）. However, the three risk scores all overestimated the absolute major bleeding risk in each risk stratification in our study. For example, the predicted rate of CRUSADE score at high risk stratification was 11.9% vs. an actual rate of 5.3%. Conclusions The CRUSADE and AC- TION scores had a greater calibration and discrimination for in-hospital major bleeding compared with the ACUITY-HORIZONS score in Chinese patients with ACS undergoing PCI. However, they all overestimated the bleeding risk rate for Chinese populations. Calibration of these risk scores would be useful for the generalization in Chinese populations.

Sustainable Construction --An International Comparison of Civil Engineering Students

Sustainable construction in the future will be influenced significantly by the beliefs and actions of civil engineering students studying at university today. A comparative investigation of the appreciation and attitudes regarding sustainable construction of civil engineering students at The NUCE （National University of Civil Engineering） in Vietnam, and the Universities of Loughborough and Liverpool in the UK were therefore conducted. Results indicate that students at all three universities appreciate the importance of the development of sustainable construction and have positive attitudes with regards to sustainability. Construction design and appropriate use of materials were two issues generally considered the most important with regards to sustainability, but were also thought to be adequately covered on the courses in all three institutions.

Juridical Status and Rights of Irregular Migrants in Brazil and Italy： An International Comparative Perspective

The aim of this paper is to analyse the legal status of irregular migrants, both in Brazil and in Italy, from a comparative law perspective. Irregular migration has always been a sensitive issue in Italian politics and is going to be a core-issue in a time of economic crisis, while in Brazil the current wave of international migration is regarded as a new phenomenon, resulting from the recent economic growth. From a legal standpoint, this study provides an analysis of both national legal order and the jurisprudential trends issued by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights （IACtHR） and the European Court of Human Rights （ECtHR）, specifically underlining the judicial borrowing and interaction between the two courts.

Effect of model errors in ambient air humidity on the aerosol optical depth obtained via aerosol hygroscopicity in eastern China in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project datasets

This analysis of the multi-model aerosol optical depth (AOD) in eastern China using the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) datasets shows that the global models underestimate the AOD by 33% and 44% in southern and northern China, respectively, and decrease the relative humidity (RH) of the air in the surface layer to 71%–80%, which is less than the RH of 77%–92% in reanalysis meteorological datasets. This indicates that the low biases in the RH partially account for the errors in the AOD. The AOD is recalculated based on the model aerosol concentrations and the reanalysis humidity data. Improving the mean value of the RH increases the multi-model annual mean AOD by 45% in southern China and by 33% in June–August in northern China. This method of improving the AOD is successful in most of the ACCMIP models, but it is unlikely to be successful in GISS-E2-R, in which the plot of its AOD efficiency against RH strongly deviates from the rest of the models. The effect of the improvement in the modeled RH on the AOD depends on the concentration of aerosols. The shape error in the frequency distribution of the RH is likely to be more important than the error in the mean value of the RH, but this requires further research.

国家生命周期与中国崛起

本文借鉴产品生命周期理论,提出国家生命周期理论,并对几个大国崛起的历程进行比较分析。本文认为,从世界现代经济发展历史看,的确存在国家发展生命周期,大体有四个或五个阶段。一个国家的兴起可能是由于国家之间竞争,从被动响应到主动响应,从模仿创新到主动创新;反之,一个国家的衰落可能是由于国家之间竞争,创新能力减弱,甚至消逝。这一国家发展生命周期理论,既可以解释其他国家的发展历史轨迹,也可以解释中国发展的历史轨迹;既可以解释中国为何从强大到衰落,也可以解释为什么中国从衰落再到强大。作者指出,国家生命周期的决定性因素就是能否创新,能否持续创新、不断创新和鼓励创新是国家崛起的背后动因。