针对水库大坝服役期的水文、水力不确定性因素及工程结构风险等因素的影响,在时变效应理论的基础上,构建了时变随机变量量化的函数模型,并提出缓变型防洪风险分析模型;同时运用蒙特卡罗法(Monte Carlo method)来求解风险率,进而定量的...针对水库大坝服役期的水文、水力不确定性因素及工程结构风险等因素的影响,在时变效应理论的基础上,构建了时变随机变量量化的函数模型,并提出缓变型防洪风险分析模型;同时运用蒙特卡罗法(Monte Carlo method)来求解风险率,进而定量的分析大坝的防洪安全。以池潭水电站为例,利用监测资料序列构建坝前最高水位与坝顶高程的缓变历程的函数关系,结果分析表明:大坝继续使用期内的防洪风险率满足现行规范设防标准,可为大坝的防洪风险评估提供科学依据,亦可将该分析方法拓展至其他服役水利工程的防洪安全评估。展开更多
The water level in the Three Gorges Dam reservoir is expected to change between the elevations of 145 m and 175 m, as a function of the flood control implementation and the intensity of the annual flood. As a matter o...The water level in the Three Gorges Dam reservoir is expected to change between the elevations of 145 m and 175 m, as a function of the flood control implementation and the intensity of the annual flood. As a matter of fact, the hydraulical and mechanical loadings, related to the water level modifications, will result in alterations in the slope stability conditions. The town of Badong (Hubei), of 20 000 inhabitants, is one of the towns which was submerged by the impoundment of the reservoir. As a consequence, the new town of Badong was constructed on a nearby site which appeared to be partly an unstable site. A part of this site corresponds to an old landslide, the Huangtupo landslide, the base of which had to be submerged by the water of the reservoir. The analysis of the Huangtupo landslide, taking into account various events scenarios, drainage and reinforcement measures and monitoring devices, allows to illustrate the general process implemented all along the reservoir in order to mitigate the landslide hazard.展开更多
文摘针对水库大坝服役期的水文、水力不确定性因素及工程结构风险等因素的影响,在时变效应理论的基础上,构建了时变随机变量量化的函数模型,并提出缓变型防洪风险分析模型;同时运用蒙特卡罗法(Monte Carlo method)来求解风险率,进而定量的分析大坝的防洪安全。以池潭水电站为例,利用监测资料序列构建坝前最高水位与坝顶高程的缓变历程的函数关系,结果分析表明:大坝继续使用期内的防洪风险率满足现行规范设防标准,可为大坝的防洪风险评估提供科学依据,亦可将该分析方法拓展至其他服役水利工程的防洪安全评估。
文摘The water level in the Three Gorges Dam reservoir is expected to change between the elevations of 145 m and 175 m, as a function of the flood control implementation and the intensity of the annual flood. As a matter of fact, the hydraulical and mechanical loadings, related to the water level modifications, will result in alterations in the slope stability conditions. The town of Badong (Hubei), of 20 000 inhabitants, is one of the towns which was submerged by the impoundment of the reservoir. As a consequence, the new town of Badong was constructed on a nearby site which appeared to be partly an unstable site. A part of this site corresponds to an old landslide, the Huangtupo landslide, the base of which had to be submerged by the water of the reservoir. The analysis of the Huangtupo landslide, taking into account various events scenarios, drainage and reinforcement measures and monitoring devices, allows to illustrate the general process implemented all along the reservoir in order to mitigate the landslide hazard.
