大气平流扩散的箱格预报模型与污染潜势指数预报

该文在对平流扩散方程积分的基础上，建立了对初始浓度有记忆力，并对非相邻地区的浓度有感受力的箱格预报模式，该模式的框架可用于各种时、空间尺度或多尺度的空气污染预测、预报．文中还定义了物理意义明确的空气污染潜势指数ＰＰＩ以反映大气通风扩散稀释和干、湿沉降清除大气污染物的总能力，结合天气预报模式和箱格预报模式则可进行空气污染潜势预报．给出了对源强和浓度监测要求灵活的空气污染指数ＰＳＩ的预报公式和方法．在仅使用常规浓度监测资料的条件下，检验了该文的基本方法，其结果看来是可接受的．

第2代大气污染物排放源强反演模式SSIM2及其在城市规划大气环境影响评价中的应用

建立了第2代大气污染物排放源强反演模式(SSIM2),SSIM2由MM5模式提供气象背景场,先在目标浓度分布的基础上,应用确定大气容量A值法得到污染源强分布的初估场,然后应用多箱格大气平流扩散模式,反复计算污染浓度分布和订正污染源强估算场,直到计算范围内所有网格点上的浓度与目标浓度的偏差小于5%时,即可得到合适的大气污染源强分布。采用山西长治地区大气污染源清单对模式的验证表明,反演的大气污染源强分布与真实源强分布非常接近。SSIM2在天津市和苏州市的城市规划大气环境影响评价中,为城市新建开发区和城市污染源的规划布局提供了科学依据。

关于平流方程的水平和垂直分辨率之间的协调

在计算域面积为常数的约束下,给出了在单波情况下几种不同精度的平流方程的“最优垂直网格距”,以及在极限情况下的“协调垂直网格距”的表达式,还推导了在多波情况下的相应的表达式。

氟利昂(CFC_s)替代物的开发动向

CFCs的基本特点是具有低毒性、不燃性、化学稳定性和防腐蚀性的优点。它还具有电绝缘性和良好的绝热性能,以及对许多种物质几乎没有任何不良影响。CFCs这种独特的性能使人们研制它的各种替代物质,并具备不破坏大气臭氧层的和广泛应用前景的物质,是非常困难的。本文着重论述了2种替代CFCs的物质:一种是不含有氯原子的碳氟化合物(含氯物质现已被认为是导致大气臭氧层耗损的原因之一);另一种是含有氢原子而且到达大气平流臭氧层之前就分解的碳氟化合物。这些替代CFCs的物质在本文中主要是,前者为:HFCs—134a、—125、-32;后者为:HCFCs—123、—141b、—124、—225。

A high-top version of IAP-AGCM:Preliminary assessment and sensitivity IAP-AGCM

Extending the atmospheric model top to high altitude is important for simulation of upper atmospheric phenomena,such as the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation.The high-top version of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics Atmospheric General Circulation Model with 91 vertical layers(IAP-AGCML91)extends to the mesopause at about 0.01 hPa(~80 km).The high-top model with a fully resolved stratosphere is found to simulate a warmer stratosphere than the low-top version,except near the South Pole,thus reducing its overall cold bias in the stratosphere,and significantly in the upper stratosphere.This sensitivity is shown to be consistent with two separate mechanisms:larger shortwave heating and larger poleward stratospheric meridional eddy heat flux in the hightop model than in the low-top model.Results indicate a significant influence of vertical resolution and model top on climate simulations in IAP-AGCM.

Quasi-biennial oscillation signal detected in the stratospheric zonal wind at 55–65°N

To investigate the impacts of the quasi-biennial oscillation （QBO） on high-latitude circulation and the Arctic vortex, stratospheric zonal wind at 55-65°N is analyzed. The seasonal cycle, solar cycle, and linear trend in the zonal wind at these latitudes are analyzed and removed, and the QBO signal is retrieved from the monthly zonal wind for the period 1979-2014. The zonal wind has a strong decreasing trend in winter, with a maximum decrease （less than -0.35 m s-1 yr-1） occurring within 70-100°E. The zonal wind has an in-phase response of 1.6 m s-1 to the solar cycle, with a maximum within 100-140°E. A clear QBO signal is detected in the zonal wind during the period 1979-2014, with an amplitude of 2.5 m s-1 and a period of 30 months. The latitudinal distribution of the QBO signal is inhomogeneous, with a maximum within 120-180°E and a minimum within 25-45°E.

ENSO cycle and climate anomaly in China

The inter-annual variability of the tropical Pacific Subsurface Ocean Temperature Anomaly （SOTA） and the associated anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Asian North Pacific during the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） were investigated using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） atmospheric reanalysis data and simple ocean data simulation （SODA）. The relationship between the ENSO and the climate of China was revealed. The main results indicated the following： 1） there are two ENSO modes acting on the subsurface tropical Pacific. The first mode is related to the mature phase of ENSO, which mainly appears during winter. The second mode is associated with a transition stage of the ENSO developing or decaying, which mainly occurs during summer; 2） during the mature phase of E1Nifio, the meridionality of the atmosphere in the mid-high latitude increases, the Aleutian low and high pressure ridge over Lake Baikal strengthens, northerly winds prevail in northern China, and precipitation in northern China decreases significantly. The ridge of the Ural High strengthens during the decaying phase of E1 Nifio, as atmospheric circulation is sustained during winter, and the northerly wind anomaly appears in northern China during summer. Due to the ascending branch of the Walker circulation over the western Pacific, the western Pacific Subtropical High becomes weaker, and south-southeasterly winds prevail over southern China. As a result, less rainfall occurs over northern China and more rainfall over the Changjiang River basin and the southwestern and eastern region of Inner Mongolia. The flood disaster that occurred south of Changjiang River can be attributed to this. The La Nifm event causes an opposite, but weaker effect; 3） the ENSO cycle can influence climate anomalies within China via zonal and meridional heat transport. This is known as the ＂atmospheric-bridge＂, where the energy anomaly within the tropical Pacific transfers to the mid-high latitude in the northern Pacific through Hadley cells and Rossby waves, and to the western Pacific-eastern Indian Ocean through Walker circulation. This research also discusses the special air-sea boundary processes during the ENSO events in the tropical Pacific, and indicates that the influence of the subsurface water of the tropical Pacific on the atmospheric circulation may be realized through the sea surface temperature anomalies of the mixed water, which contact the atmosphere and transfer the anomalous heat and moisture to the atmosphere directly. Moreover, the reason for the heavy flood within the Changjiang River during the summer of 1998 is reviewed in this paper.

A New Statistical Downscaling Scheme for Predicting Winter Precipitation in China

An effective statistical downscaling scheme was developed on the basis of singular value decomposition to predict boreal winter(December-January-February)precipitation over China.The variable geopotential height at 500 hPa(GH5)over East Asia,which was obtained from National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Coupled Forecast System(NCEP CFS),was used as one predictor for the scheme.The preceding sea ice concentration(SIC)signal obtained from observed data over high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere was chosen as an additional predictor.This downscaling scheme showed significantly improvement in predictability over the original CFS general circulation model(GCM)output in cross validation.The multi-year average spatial anomaly correlation coefficient increased from–0.03 to 0.31,and the downscaling temporal root-mean-square-error(RMSE)decreased significantly over that of the original CFS GCM for most China stations.Furthermore,large precipitation anomaly centers were reproduced with greater accuracy in the downscaling scheme than those in the original CFS GCM,and the anomaly correlation coefficient between the observation and downscaling results reached～0.6 in the winter of 2008.

ECHAM5-Simulated Impacts of Two Types of El Nio on the Winter Precipitation Anomalies in South China

The authors used an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） of European Centre Hamburg Model （ECHAM5.4） and investigated the possible impacts of eastern Pacific （EP） and central Pacific （CP） El Ni（n）o on the winter precipitation anomalies in South China.A composite analysis suggested much more rainfall during the mature phase of EP El Ni（n）o than in the case of CP El Ni（n）o,and their corresponding observed wet centers to be located in the southeast coast and the region to the south of the Yangtze River,respectively.Results obtained on the basis of model-sensitive run imply that the modelsimulated rainfall anomalies agree well with the observation,and the magnitude of simulated rainfall anomalies were found to be reduced when the amplitude of sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） forcing of EP and CP El Ni（n）o was cut down.These results imply that the rainfall anomaly in South China is very sensitive not only to the type of El Ni（n）o but also to its intensity.

Relationship Between North Pacific SST Anomalies and the Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies in January 2008

Based on the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) data,the relationship between the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) in the North Pacific and the atmospheric circulation anomalies in January 2008 is analyzed in this study.The SSTA mode most correlated with the Geopotential Height anomalies (GHAs) in January 2008 in the North Pacific exhibited a basin-wide horseshoe pattern with a warm center in November 2007.This persistent SSTA pattern would induce positive GHAs in the Aleutian Low area and East Asia and the northward extension of the West Pacific Subtropical High in January 2008 by maximum diabatic heating in the atmosphere over the Kuroshio Oyashio Extension (KOE) area,leading to the occurence of the circumpolar trough-ridge wave train anomaly in January 2008.

Interdecadal Variations of Winter Temperatures in East China During the Past 100 Years and Related Atmospheric Circulation

The winter temperature changes in East China during the past 100 years are investigated by using the Twentieth Century Version 2(20th-v2)Reanalysis.Four typical warm(P1,1911–30;P4,1991–2010)and cold(P2,1938–57;P3,1961–80)periods are identified for the East China winter temperature index.Comparison of160-station observational data,NCAR sea level pressure(SLP)data,and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis shows that the20th-v2 Reanalysis can successfully depict the major features of the warming from P3 to P4,which is part of the global warming phenomenon.The cooling from P1 to P2is a regional phenomenon under global warming.However,both changes are consistent with the phase change of the Arctic Oscillation(AO),while the second change is also accompanied by the phase change of Antarctic Oscillation(AAO)from negative to positive.Original sources of the interdecadal shifts of the AO and winter temperature in East China require further research.

Characteristics of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Their Influences on the Onset of South China Sea Summer Monsoon

The characteristics of sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） in the tropical oceans and their influences on the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） have been studied.The anomaly of SST in tropical Pacific Ocean exerts persistence impact for one to three months on atmospheric circulations.If the warm pool becomes anomalously warmer during an earlier period from February to April,the SCSSM breaks out earlier,and vice versa.Singular value decomposition （SVD） and composite analysis have shown that,in La Ni（n）a pattern,the convection over Western Pacific will occur earlier and be stronger than normal,which favors the convergence at a lower layer over Western Pacific,as well as the strengthening of upwelling branch of Walker circulation,leading to an earlier burst of westerly in the southern South China Sea.Moreover,the convection in Sumatra appears earlier than normal and favors the westerly evolution in eastern Indian Ocean,resulting in the splitting of the subtropical high belt and an early onset of SCSSM.However,the atmospheric circulation anomaly is reversed in El Ni（n）o pattern.

Distribution and Variation of Carbon Monoxide in the Tropical Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere

The authors examine the distribution and varia- tion of carbon monoxide （CO） in the tropics from the sur- face to the lower stratosphere. By analyzing space-borne microwave limb sounder （MLS） measurements, measure- ments of pollution in the troposphere （MOPITT） and mod- em-era retrospective analysis for research and applications （MERRA） meteorological products, and atmospheric chemistry and climate model intercomparison project （ACCMIP） surface emission inventories, the influences of atmospheric dynamics and surface emissions are investi- gated. The results show that there are four centers of highly concentrated CO mixing ratio over tropical areas in differ- ent seasons： two in the Northern Hemisphere and another two in the Southern Hemisphere. All of these centers cor- respond to local deep convective systems and mon- soons/anticyclones. The authors suggest that both deep convections and anticyclones affect CO in the tropical tro- posphere and lower stratosphere--the former helping to transport CO from the lower to the middle troposphere （or even higher）, and the dynamical uplift and isolation effects of the latter helping to build up highly concentrated CO in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere （UTLS）. Similarly, there are two annual surface emission peaks in- duced by biomass burning emissions： one from the North- ern Hemisphere and the other from the Southern Hemi- sphere. Both contribute to the highly concentrated CO mixing ratio and control the seasonal variabilities of CO in the UTLS, combining the effects of deep convections and monsoons. Results also show a relatively steady emission rate from anthropogenic sources, with a small increase mainly coming from Southeast Asia and lndia. These emis- sions can be transported to the UTLS over Tibet by the joint effort of surface horizontal winds, deep convections, and the Asian summer monsoon system.

Delayed Seasonal Transition of Tropical Wave Activity in the CMIP3 Global Climate Models

This study evaluates the seasonal cycle of the activity of convectively coupled equatorial waves(CCEWs),including mixed Rossby-gravity(MRG) and tropical depression-type(TD-type) waves,based on the twentieth century experiments of 18 global climate models(GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3(CMIP3).The ensemble result of the 18 GCMs shows that the observed seasonal cycle of MRG and TD-type wave activity cannot be well reproduced.The seasonal transition of wave activity from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere is delayed from April in the observations to May in the simulations,indicating that the simulated active season of tropical waves in the northern hemisphere is delayed and shortened.This delayed seasonal transition of tropical wave activity is associated with a delayed seasonal transition of simulated mean precipitation.The mean precipitation in April and May shows a double-ITCZ problem,and the horizontal resolution is important to the delayed seasonal transition of wave activity.Because of the coincident seasonal cycle of MRG and TD-type wave activity and tropical cyclone(TC) geneses,the delayed seasonal transition of wave activity may imply a similar problem of TC genesis in the GCMs,namely,a delayed and shortened TC season in the northern hemisphere.

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Decadal variations in the season advancement of spring water cycle over Eastern China

Spring is the critical period for atmospheric circulation transition from winter to summer. The spring water cycle is very im- portant to agriculture in planting crop and the initial growth of crop. Note that there was a significant abrupt decadal change in the water budget increase during early spring over eastern China in the late 1970s. Studied here are the decadal variations of water budgets over the key regions and the associated change of water cycle over East Asia and atmospheric circulation over Asia-West Pacific region in early spring, using the observed （OBS） precipitation, the ECMWF （ERA） and NCEP/NCAR rea- nalysis （NRA）, and the Mantua＇s Pacific decadal oscillation index （PDOI）. The water budget increments from March to April exhibited a sharp decrease over the key region around Huaihe River basin （HHR） （111°-120°E; 31°-36°N） after year 1978. Before 1977 the water vapor flux through south boundary of the HHR region increased greatly during March to April by 1.52 mm d^-1 in ERA and 1.88 mm d^-1 in NRA. Concurrently the moisture convergence and precipitation over the region also in- creased greatly. The increment for the moisture convergence was 1.11 mmd^-1 in ERA and 1.22 mm d^-1 in NRA, and for the precipitation was 1.05 mm d^-1 in observation and 1.05 mm d^-1 in ERA. April was the time that the water budgets over HHR increased most rapidly before 1977. But after 1978 the water budgets decreased conversely from Mach to April. The water vapor flux increment through the south boundary was -0.03 mmd^-1 in ERA and 0.01 mm d^-1 in NRA, the moisture conver- gence increment was -0.91 mm d^-1 in ERA and -0.53 mm d^-1 in NRA, and precipitation increment was -0.08 mm d^-1 in ob- servation and -0.15 mm d^-1 in ERA. Further investigation has shown that the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the early spring has correspondingly changed significantly after the late 1970s. During March to April, the weakening of the trough over East Asia became significantly slower, and the strengthening of the ridge over the west China became significantly faster in the middle troposphere after the late 1970s. At the same time, in the lower troposphere, the strengthening and northward extending of the west pan of the subtropical high and the weakening of the trough over the southwest part of the Aleutian low in the early spring became slower, and the weakening of the main part of Asian high became slower, but the strengthening of its west part became faster. This significant decadal change of circulation caused a sharp decrease in the northward extending speed of wa- ter vapor transport, and in the water budgets increasing speed over the southeastern China during early spring after the late 1970s.

Influences of Indian Ocean interannual variability on different stages of El Nio: A FOAM1.5 model approach

Both the tropical Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans are active atmosphere-ocean interactive regions with robust interannual variability, which also constitutes a linkage between the two basins in the mode of variability. Using a global atmosphere- ocean coupled model, we conducted two experiments （CTRL and PC） to explore the contributions of Indian Ocean interannual sea surface temperature （SST） modes to the occurrence of E1 Nino events. The results show that interannual variability of the SST in the Indian Ocean induces a rapid growth of E1 Nino events during the boreal autumn in an E1 Nino developing year. However, it weakens E1 Nino events or even promotes cold phase conversions in an E1 Nino decaying year. Therefore, the en- tire period of the E1 Nino is shortened by the interannual variations of the Indian Ocean SST. Specifically, during the E1 Nino developing years, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD） events force an anomalous Walker circulation, which then enhances the existing westerly wind anomalies over the west Pacific. This will cause a warmer E1 Nino event, with some modulations by ocean advection and oceanic Rossby and Kelvin waves. However, with the onset of the South Asian monsoon, the Indian Ocean Basin （IOB） warming SST anomalies excite low level easterly wind anomalies over the west tropical Pacific during the El Nino decaying years. As a result, the E1 Nino event is prompted to change from a warm phase to a cold phase. At the same time, an associated atmospheric anticyclone anomaly appears and leads to a decreasing precipitation anomaly over the northwest Pacific. In summary, with remote forcing in the atmospheric circulation, the IOD mode usually affects the E1 Nino during the developing years, whereas the IOB mode affects the E1 Nino during the decaying years.

Changes of the tropical Pacific Walker circulation simulated by two versions of FGOALS model

Here we assessed the performances of IAP/LASG climate system model FGOALS-g2 and FGOAS-s2 in the simulation of the tropical Pacific Walker circulation （WC）. Both models reasonably reproduce the climatological spatial distribution features of the tropical Pacific WC. We also investigated the changes of WC simulated by two versions of FGOALS model and discussed the mechanism responsible for WC changes. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure （SLP） reveals a reduction of WC during 1900-2004 and 1950-2004, and an enhancement of WC during 1982-2004. During the three different time spans, the WC in FGOALS-g2 shows a weakening trend. In FGOALS-s2, tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation shows no significant change over the past century, but the WC strengthens during 1950-2004 and 1982-2004. The simulated bias of the WC change may be related to the phase of the multi-decadal mode in coupled models, which is not in sync with that in the observations. The change of WC is explained by the hydrological cycle constraints that precipitation must be balanced with the moisture trans- porting from the atmospheric boundary layer to the free troposphere. In FGOALS-g2, the increasing amplitude of the relative variability of precipitation （AP/P） is smaller （larger） than the relative variability of moisture （Aq/q） over the tropical western （eastern） Pacific over the three time spans, and thus leads to a weakened WC. In FGOALS-s2, the convective mass exchange fluxes increase （decrease） over the tropical western （eastern） Pacific over the past 53 a （1950-2004） and the last 23 a （1982- 2004）, and thus leads to a strengthened WC. The distributions of sea surface temperature （SST） trends dominate the change of WC. Over the past 55 a and 23 a, tropical Pacific SST shows an E1 Nifto-like （a La Nifia-like） trend pattern in FGOALS-g2 （FGOALS-s2）, which drives the weakening （strengthening） of WC. Therefore, a successful simulation of the tropical Pacific SST change pattern is necessary for a reasonable simulation of WC change in climate system models. This idea is further sup- ported by the diagnosis of historical sea surface temperature driven AGCM-simulations.

A 2680-year record of sea ice extent in the Ross Sea and the associated atmospheric circulation derived from the DT401 East Antarctic ice core

Long time series of Antarctic sea ice extent （SIE） are important for climate research and model forecasting. A historic ice extent in the Ross Sea in early austral winter was rebuilt through sea salt ions in the DT401 ice core in interior East Antarctica. El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） had a significant influence on the sea salt deposition in DT401 through its influence on the Ross Sea SIE and the transport of sea salt inland. Spectral analysis also supported the influence of ENSO with a significant 2-6 a periodicity band. In addition, statistically significant decadal （10 a） and pentadecadal （50-70 a） periodicities suggested the existence of a teleconnection from the Pacific decadal oscillation （PDO）, which originated from sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The first eigenvector of the empirical orthogonal function analysis （EOF1） showed lower values during the Medieval Warm Period （MWP）, while higher values were found in the Little Ice Age （LIA）. A higher frequency of ENSO events were found in the cold climatic stage, The post 1800 AD period was occupied by significant fluctuations of the EOF1, and PDO may be one of the influencing factors. The EOF1 values showed moderate fluctuations from 680 BC to 1000 AD, showing that the climate was relatively stable in this period.

Impact of El Nio on atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China： Role of the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone

This paper presents a review on the impact of El Nio on the interannual variability of atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China through the anomalous anticyclone over western North Pacific(WNPAC). It explains the formation mechanisms of the WNPAC and physical processes by which the WNPAC affects the rainfall in China. During the mature phase of El Nio, the convective cooling anomalies over western tropical Pacific caused by the weakened convections trigger up an atmospheric Rossby wave response, resulting in the generation of the WNPAC. The WNPAC can persist from the winter when the El Nio is in its peak to subsequent summer, which is maintained by multiple factors including the sustained presence of convective cooling anomalies and the local air-sea interaction over western tropical Pacific, and the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in tropical Indian and tropical North Atlantic. The WNPAC can influence the atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall in China not only simultaneously, but also in the subsequent summer after an El Nio year, leading to more rainfall over southern China. The current paper also points out that significant anomalies of atmospheric circulations over East Asia and rainfall over southern China occur in El Nio winter but not in La Nio winter, suggesting that El Nio and La Nio have an asymmetric effect. Other issues, including the impact of El Nio diversity and its impact as well as the relations of the factors affecting the persistence of the WNPAC with summer rainfall anomalies in China, are also discussed. At the end of this paper some issues calling for further investigation are discussed.