Climate changes in Guangdong are studied based on temperature data of 86 meteorological stations in Guangdong Province during 1961 – 2000, temperature data in Guangzhou during 1908 – 2002, and sea level data in the ...Climate changes in Guangdong are studied based on temperature data of 86 meteorological stations in Guangdong Province during 1961 – 2000, temperature data in Guangzhou during 1908 – 2002, and sea level data in the South China Sea during 1958 – 2001. Significant climate warming and sea level rise in Guangdong is demonstrated. Possible influences of climate warming on agriculture in Guangdong are discussed in terms of thermal resources, crop and breed layout, crop yield, diseases, insect pests and weeds as well as agrometeorological disasters, etc. In the final part, agricultural strategies of mitigating and adapting to the climate changes are given.展开更多
The performance of a joint data assimilation system（Tan-Tracker）,which is based on the PODEn4 Dvar assimilation method,in assimilating Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite（GOSAT） carbon dioxide（CO2） data,was eva...The performance of a joint data assimilation system（Tan-Tracker）,which is based on the PODEn4 Dvar assimilation method,in assimilating Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite（GOSAT） carbon dioxide（CO2） data,was evaluated.Atmospheric 3D CO2 concentrations and CO2 surface fluxes（CFs） from2010 were simulated using a global chemistry transport model（GEOS-Chem）.TheTan-Tracker system used the simulated CO2 concentrations and fluxes as a background field and assimilated the GOSAT column average dry-air mole fraction of CO2（X（CO2）） data to optimize CO2 concentrations and CFs in the same assimilation window.Monthly simulated X（CO2）（X（CO2）Sim）） and assimilated X（CO2）（X（CO2）,TT） data retrieved at different satellite scan positions were compared with GOSAT-observed X（CO2）（X（CO2）,obs）data.The average RMSE between the monthly X（CO2）,TT and X（CO2）,Obs data was significantly（30%） lower than the average RMSE between X（CO2）,Sim and X（CO2）,Obs）.Specifically,reductions in error were found for the positions of northern Africa（the Sahara）,the Indian peninsula,southern Africa,southern North America,and western Australia.The difference between the correlation coefficients of the X（CO2）,Sim）and X（CO2）,Obs and those of the X（CO2）Π）,TT and X（CO2）,Obs was only small.In general,the Tan-Tracker system performed very well after assimilating the GOSAT data.展开更多
Despite many studies on reconstructing the climate changes over the last millennium in China,the cause of the China's climate change remains unclear.We used the UVic Earth System Climate Model(UVic Model),an Earth...Despite many studies on reconstructing the climate changes over the last millennium in China,the cause of the China's climate change remains unclear.We used the UVic Earth System Climate Model(UVic Model),an Earth system model of intermediate complexity,to investigate the contributions of climate forcings(e.g.solar insolation variability,anomalous volcanic aerosols,greenhouse gas,solar orbital change,land cover changes,and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols) to surface air temperature over East China in the past millennium.The simulation of the UVic Model could reproduce the three main characteristic periods(e.g.the Medieval Warm Period(MWP),the Little Ice Age(LIA),and the 20th Century Warming Period(20CWP)) of the northern hemisphere and East China,which were consistent with the corresponding reconstructed air temperatures at century scales.The simulation result reflected that the air temperature anomalies of East China were larger than those of the global air temperature during the MWP and the first half of 20CWP and were lower than those during the LIA.The surface air temperature of East China over the past millennium has been divided into three periods in the MWP,four in the LIA,and one in the 20CWP.The MWP of East China was caused primarily by solar insolation and secondarily by volcanic aerosols.The variation of the LIA was dominated by the individual sizes of the contribution of solar insolation variability,greenhouse gas,and volcano aerosols.Greenhouse gas and volcano aerosols were the main forcings of the third and fourth periods of the LIA,respectively.We examined the nonlinear responses among the natural and anthropogenic forcings in terms of surface air temperature over East China.The nonlinear responses between the solar orbit change and anomalous volcano aerosols and those between the greenhouse gases and land cover change(or anthropogenic sulfate aerosols) all contributed approximately 0.2℃ by the end of 20th century.However,the output of the energy-moisture balance atmospheric model from UVic showed no obvious nonlinear responses between anthropogenic and natural forcings.The nonlinear responses among all the climate forcings(both anthropogenic and natural forcings) contributed to a temperature increase of approximately 0.27℃ at the end of the 20th century,accounting for approximately half of the warming during this period;the remainder was due to the climate forcings themselves.展开更多
基金Key Research Planning Project of the National Natural Science Foundation (90211010)
文摘Climate changes in Guangdong are studied based on temperature data of 86 meteorological stations in Guangdong Province during 1961 – 2000, temperature data in Guangzhou during 1908 – 2002, and sea level data in the South China Sea during 1958 – 2001. Significant climate warming and sea level rise in Guangdong is demonstrated. Possible influences of climate warming on agriculture in Guangdong are discussed in terms of thermal resources, crop and breed layout, crop yield, diseases, insect pests and weeds as well as agrometeorological disasters, etc. In the final part, agricultural strategies of mitigating and adapting to the climate changes are given.
基金partially supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2013AA122002]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41575100 and 91437220]+1 种基金the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number KZCX2-EW-QN207]the Special Fund for Meteorological Scientific Research in Public Interest[grant number GYHY201506002]
文摘The performance of a joint data assimilation system（Tan-Tracker）,which is based on the PODEn4 Dvar assimilation method,in assimilating Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite（GOSAT） carbon dioxide（CO2） data,was evaluated.Atmospheric 3D CO2 concentrations and CO2 surface fluxes（CFs） from2010 were simulated using a global chemistry transport model（GEOS-Chem）.TheTan-Tracker system used the simulated CO2 concentrations and fluxes as a background field and assimilated the GOSAT column average dry-air mole fraction of CO2（X（CO2）） data to optimize CO2 concentrations and CFs in the same assimilation window.Monthly simulated X（CO2）（X（CO2）Sim）） and assimilated X（CO2）（X（CO2）,TT） data retrieved at different satellite scan positions were compared with GOSAT-observed X（CO2）（X（CO2）,obs）data.The average RMSE between the monthly X（CO2）,TT and X（CO2）,Obs data was significantly（30%） lower than the average RMSE between X（CO2）,Sim and X（CO2）,Obs）.Specifically,reductions in error were found for the positions of northern Africa（the Sahara）,the Indian peninsula,southern Africa,southern North America,and western Australia.The difference between the correlation coefficients of the X（CO2）,Sim）and X（CO2）,Obs and those of the X（CO2）Π）,TT and X（CO2）,Obs was only small.In general,the Tan-Tracker system performed very well after assimilating the GOSAT data.
基金supported by the Major Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40890052)National Basic Research Progam of China (Grant No. 2007CB815901)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40805036)the Basic Research Fund of CAMS
文摘Despite many studies on reconstructing the climate changes over the last millennium in China,the cause of the China's climate change remains unclear.We used the UVic Earth System Climate Model(UVic Model),an Earth system model of intermediate complexity,to investigate the contributions of climate forcings(e.g.solar insolation variability,anomalous volcanic aerosols,greenhouse gas,solar orbital change,land cover changes,and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols) to surface air temperature over East China in the past millennium.The simulation of the UVic Model could reproduce the three main characteristic periods(e.g.the Medieval Warm Period(MWP),the Little Ice Age(LIA),and the 20th Century Warming Period(20CWP)) of the northern hemisphere and East China,which were consistent with the corresponding reconstructed air temperatures at century scales.The simulation result reflected that the air temperature anomalies of East China were larger than those of the global air temperature during the MWP and the first half of 20CWP and were lower than those during the LIA.The surface air temperature of East China over the past millennium has been divided into three periods in the MWP,four in the LIA,and one in the 20CWP.The MWP of East China was caused primarily by solar insolation and secondarily by volcanic aerosols.The variation of the LIA was dominated by the individual sizes of the contribution of solar insolation variability,greenhouse gas,and volcano aerosols.Greenhouse gas and volcano aerosols were the main forcings of the third and fourth periods of the LIA,respectively.We examined the nonlinear responses among the natural and anthropogenic forcings in terms of surface air temperature over East China.The nonlinear responses between the solar orbit change and anomalous volcano aerosols and those between the greenhouse gases and land cover change(or anthropogenic sulfate aerosols) all contributed approximately 0.2℃ by the end of 20th century.However,the output of the energy-moisture balance atmospheric model from UVic showed no obvious nonlinear responses between anthropogenic and natural forcings.The nonlinear responses among all the climate forcings(both anthropogenic and natural forcings) contributed to a temperature increase of approximately 0.27℃ at the end of the 20th century,accounting for approximately half of the warming during this period;the remainder was due to the climate forcings themselves.
