“P4大气科学(气象学)”类目使用之我见

《中国图书馆分类法》(第4版)在部分专业类目的使用上不适合图书馆文献细分的需要。通过对中国气象局图书馆馆藏文献的调研发现,各个图书馆应根据本馆藏书的实际情况有针对性地选择、调整"P4大气科学(气象学)"类目的详简程度,并对注释进行适当修改或增删。

中文核心期刊收录的大气科学类期刊介绍

介绍了10种大气科学(气象学)中文核心期刊的中文刊名、英文刊名、国际标准刊号、最新影响因子、主办单位、出版周期、最新期刊网址等信息。以便为大气科学学科的科研工作者提供参考。

基于JCR和Ulrich’s收录大气科学(气象学)期刊的分析研究

通过检索JCR(期刊引证报告)和Ulrieh's(乌利希期刊指南)网络数据库,分析研究了它们所收录大气科学(气象学)期刊的一些情况,特别是对JCR 2007年收录的51种期刊在2002～2007年的影响因子进行研究,计算出大气科学(气象学)期刊六年影响因子的线性倾向率,指出期刊影响因子变化的一些特征。并就这两个数据库收录中国大气科学(气象学)期刊、开放获取期刊进行了分析探讨。最后得出相应的结论和启示。

高校重点学科外文学术期刊的分布研究

高校图书馆的一个重要任务就是为本校的重点学科建立一个较为完善的文献资源保障体系,其中外文学术期刊是其保障体系中的重点内容,为了更好的建设和利用这些资源,很有必要对其分布状况做个深入的研究,本文以JCR 2007年收录的51种大气科学(气象学)期刊为研究对象,试图从期刊的内在特征(主题、相对影响力)和外部特征(出版时间、出版地区、核心出版社、出版频率、期刊价格、载体类型)去研究它们的分布状况。根据这些分布状况,对JCR 2007年收录大气科学(气象学)期刊进行分析研究,最后得出相关结论。

STUDY OF THE MODIFICATION OF MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SCHEMES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS

This study investigates multi-model ensemble forecasts of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the western Pacific, based on forecast outputs from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency and National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble(TIGGE) datasets. The multi-model ensemble schemes, namely the bias-removed ensemble mean(BREM) and superensemble(SUP), are compared with the ensemble mean(EMN) and single-model forecasts. Moreover, a new model bias estimation scheme is investigated and applied to the BREM and SUP schemes. The results showed that, compared with single-model forecasts and EMN, the multi-model ensembles of the BREM and SUP schemes can have smaller errors in most cases. However, there were also circumstances where BREM was less skillful than EMN, indicating that using a time-averaged error as model bias is not optimal. A new model bias estimation scheme of the biweight mean is introduced. Through minimizing the negative influence of singular errors, this scheme can obtain a more accurate model bias estimation and improve the BREM forecast skill. The application of the biweight mean in the bias calculation of SUP also resulted in improved skill. The results indicate that the modification of multi-model ensemble schemes through this bias estimation method is feasible.

ASSIMILATION OF REAL OBSERVATIONAL DATA WITH THE GSI-HYBRID DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM TO IMPROVE TYPHOON FORECAST

A hybrid GSI （Grid-point Statistical Interpolation）-ETKF （Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter） data assimila- tion system has been recently developed for the WRF （Weather Research and Forecasting） model and tested with simu- lated observations for tropical cyclone （TC） forecast. This system is based on the existing GSI but with ensemble back- ground information incorporated. As a follow-up, this work extends the new system to assimilate real observations to further understand the hybrid scheme. As a first effort to explore the system with real observations, relatively coarse grid resolution （27 km） is used. A case study of typhoon Muifa （2011） is performed to assimilate real observations in- cluding conventional in-situ and satellite data. The hybrid system with flow-dependent ensemble eovariance shows sig- nificant improvements with respect to track forecast compared to the standard GSI system which in theory is three di- mensional variational analysis （3DVAR）. By comparing the analyses, analysis increments and forecasts, the hybrid sys- tem is found to be potentially able to recognize the existence of TC vortex, adjust its position systematically, better de- scribe the asymmetric structure of typhoon Muifa and maintain the dynamic and thermodynamic balance in typhoon ini- tial field. In addition, a cold-start hybrid approach by using the global ensembles to provide flow-dependent error is test- ed and similar results are revealed with those from cycled GSI-ETKF approach.

A SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS STUDY ON THE ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE OBSERVED BY GOSAT SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING

The variation of the atmospheric Carbon Dioxide （CO2） concentration plays an important role in global cli- mate and agriculture. We analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of CO2 in the China region and around the globe with the CO2 column mixing ratios observed by the Japanese GOSAT satellite （Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite）. In order to make sure that the accuracy of the CO2 data retrieved by the satellite meets the needs of the climate charac- teristics analyses, we ran a validation on the CO2 column mixing ratios retrieved by the satellite against the ground-based TCCON （Total Carbon Column Observing Network） observation data. The result shows that the two sets of data have a correlation coefficient of higher than 0.7, and a bias of within 2.2 ppmv. Therefore, the GOSAT CO2 da- ta can be used for the climate characteristics analysis of global CO2. Our analysis on the spatial-temporal characteristics of the CO2 column mixing ratios observed during the period of June 2009 through January 2014 proved that, with the impact of the natural emission of near ground CO2 and human activities, the global CO2 concentration has a significant latitudinal characteristics with its highest level averaging 390 oomv in the 0-40？N latitudinal zone in the Northern Hemisphere, and 387 ppmv in the Southern Hemisphere. China has a relatively higher CO2 concentration with the highest level exceeding 398 ppmv, and the eastern area higher than the western area. The variation of global CO2 concentration shows a seasonal pattern, i.e. the CO2 concen- tration reaches its highest in spring in the Northern Hemisphere averaging more than 392 ppmv, second highest in win- ter, and lowest in summer averaging less than 387 ppmv. It fluctuates the most in the Northern Hemisphere with an av- erage concentration of 392.5 ppmv in April, and 385.5 ppmv in July. While in the Southern Hemisphere, the seasonal fluctuation is smaller with the highest concentration occurring in July. Over the recent years, the global CO2 concentra- tion has shown an elevating trend with an average annual increase rate of 1.58 ppmv per year. It is a challenge that the human kind has to face to slow down the increase of the CO2 concentration.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ATMOSPHERIC HEATING SOURCE/SINK ANOMALIES OF ASIAN MONSOON AND FLOOD/DROUGHT IN THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN IN THE MEIYU PERIOD

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and a 30-year precipitation dataset of observed daily rainfall from 109 gauge stations are utilized in this paper.Using the REOF we analyzed the spatial distribution of precipitation in the 109 stations in the Yangtze River Basin in Meiyu periods from 1978 to 2007.The result showed that the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin can be divided into the south and north part.As a result,relationships between an atmospheric heating source(hereafter called <Q_1>) over the Asian region and the precipitation on the south and north side of Yangtze River in Meiyu periods were separately studied in this paper.The results are shown as follows.The flood/drought to the north of Yangtze River(NYR) was mainly related to the <Q_1> over the East Asia summer monsoon region:when the <Q_1> over the Philippines through Western Pacific and the south China was weakened(strengthened),it would probably result in the flood(drought) in NYR;and the precipitation on the south side of Yangtze River(SYR)was related to the <Q_1> over the east Asia and Indian summer monsoon region:when the <Q_1> over the areas from south China to the northern East China Sea and Yellow Sea and south-eastern Japan was strengthened(weakened),and the <Q_1> over the areas from the Bay of Bengal to south-eastern Tibetan Plateau was weakened(strengthened),it will lead to flood(drought) in SYR.

HIGH-RESOLUTION NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TYPHOON LONGWANG(2005) WITH THE SPECTRUM NUDGING TECHNIQUE

With the Weather Research and Forecasting model （WRFV3.2.1）, the application of specmun nudging tech- niques in numerical simulation of the genesis and development of typhoon Longwang （2005） is evaluated in this work via four numerical experiments with different nudging techniques. It is found that, due to the ability to capture the large-scale fields and to keep the meso-to small-scale features derived from the model dynamics, the experiment with spectrum nudging technique can simulate the formation, intensification and motion of Longwang properly. The improve- ment on the numerical simulation of Longwang induced by the spectrum nudging depends on the nudging coefficients. A weak spectrum nudging does not make significant improvement on the simulation of Longwang. Although the experi- ment with four-dimensional data assimilation, i.e., FDDA, also derives the genesis and movement of Longwang appro- priately, it fails to simulate the intensifying process of Longwang properly. The reason is that, as the large-scale features derived from the model are nudged to the observational data, the meso- to small-processes produced by the model dy- namics important to the intensification of typhoon are nearly smoothed by FDDA.

CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION OF OLR OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT WITH ITS POSSIBLE LINKAGE TO SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CHINA

Using the 1979-2009 NCEP/NACR reanalysis data and precipitation records in East China, research is performed of the climatological features of low-frequency oscillation(LFO) in OLR over the Maritime Continent(MC) as well as their associations with precipitation disturbance in the eastern part of China. Results suggest that in the MC there is significant climatological low-frequency oscillation(CLFO) in outgoing long-wave radiation(OLR), with the intraseasonal oscillation(30-60 days) being the strongest for April-September, and the MC acting as a high-value region of percentage contributions of low-frequency OLR variance. On the low-frequency time scale there occur four events of more intense active OLR during this time interval. In the January-April(May-August) phase, MC convection is relatively weak(vigorous). The CLFO makes pronounced eastward displacement at tropics, with phase propagation seen longitudinally, too. There occur low-frequency disturbance circulations similar to the EAP wavetrain or P-J teleconnection,starting from the MC via the South China Sea and the Philippines to the Yangtze valley of China. At different phases,the variation in the low-frequency circulations and heating fields shows that the rainfall disturbance in eastern China is likely to be under possible effects of the CLFO from the MC in April-September, and the low-frequency heating variation exhibits a meridional pattern as an EAP wavetrain or P-J teleconnection. As the OLR CLFO is in a peak(valley)phase the low-level divergence or convergence with the reversal at high levels over the MC is related to relatively feeble(robust) low frequency convection, thereby exciting an EAP or P-J wavetrain from the MC to the Sea of Japan. At the higher levels, the South-Asian high is eastward(westward) of normal due to effects of low-frequency cyclones(anticyclones), resulting in less(more) rainfall in the Jiangnan(areas in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze and to the south of the river) and Hetao(the Great Bend of Yellow River) areas, and increased(decreased) rainfall in SW China,Qinghai Plateau and Gansu. At the conversion phases, low-frequency convection becomes more active in parts of the MC, consequently exciting low-frequency wavetrain of cyclones-anticyclones-cyclones at low levels, making the South-Asian high southward of the mean, so that strong convergent zones emerge in the upper and middle Yangtze basins and Jilin of NE China, responsible for plentiful precipitation there in sharp contrast to the rainfall over the band between the Yellow and Huaihe Rivers and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. These results help understand in depth the climatological LFO characteristics and the phase-locked feature, thereby further improving our understanding of the causes of rainfall disturbances in different parts of the country.

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON MULTI-LEVEL STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF DYNAMIC BALANCE CONSTRAINTS IN GRAPES-3DVAR

This paper further explores the estimating and expressing of dynamic balance constraints using statistical methods in GRAPES-3DVAR(Version GM). Unlike the single-level scheme which only considers the coupling between mass and wind at one level, the multi-level scheme considers the coupling between their vertical profiles and calculates the balanced mass field at each layer using the rotational wind at all model levels. A reformed ridge regression method is used in the new scheme to avoid the multicollinearity problem and reduce the noises caused by unbalanced mesoscale disturbances. The results of numerical experiments show that the new scheme can get more reasonable vertical mass field, reduce the magnitude of the adjustment by the initialization, and improve the potential temperature analysis performance. Furthermore, the results of forecast verification in January(winter) and July(summer) both confirm that the new scheme can significantly improve the temperature forecast accuracy and bring slight positive effects to the pressure and wind forecast.

THE EFFECTS OF THE PLATEAU'S TOPOGRAPHIC GRADIENT ON ROSSBY WAVES AND ITS NUMERICAL SIMULATION

By using barotropic model equations, this article analyzed the characteristics of Rossby waves, the propaga- tion features of wave energy and the influence of dynamic and thermal effects of the Tibetan Plateau on Rossby waves, and the focus is on discussing the plateau＇s topographic gradient effects on atmospheric Rossby waves. Then based on the WRF3.2 and the NCEP/NCAR FNL reanalysis data, we devised comparative tests of changing the plateau＇s topo- graphic gradient and simulated a process of persistent heavy rain that happened in May 2010 in South China. The re- sults are shown as follows. The Tibetan Platean＇s topography is conducive to the formation of atmospheric Rossby waves, while the platean＇s terrain, its friction and heating effects can all make the atmospheric Rossby waves develop into the planetary waves; The effects of platean＇s north and south slopes on the Rossby wave＇ phase velocity is opposite, and when the slope reached a certain value can the quasi-steady normal fluctuations be generated; Simultaneously, due to the plateau＇s topographic gradient, descending motion appears at the west side of the plateau while ascending motion appears at the east side, and the vertical movement increased with the amplification of topographic gradients. The plateau＇s topographic gradient also obviously amplified the precipitation in South China, and the rainfall area increased with the amplification of topographic gradients and gradually moved from south to north and from west to east, which is conducive to the occurrence and development of convective activities in the downstream areas of the Tibetan Plateau; Moreover, for the plateau＇s dynamic and thermal effects, the Rossby wave＇ propagation shows upstream effects of ener- gy dispersion, so the plateau can then affect the weather in downstream areas. Moreover, the wave group velocity in- creased with the degree of topographic slope.

IMPACT OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS ON THE PRECIPITATION OF GUANGDONG IN JUNES

The impact of tropical intraseasonal oscillations on the precipitation of Guangdong in Junes and its physical mechanism are analyzed using 30-yr(1979 to 2008), 86-station observational daily precipitation of Guangdong and daily atmospheric data from NCEP-DOE Reanalysis. It is found that during the annually first rainy season(April to June),the modulating effect of the activity of intraseasonal oscillations propagating eastward along the equator(MJO) on the June precipitation in Guangdong is different from that in other months. The most indicative effect of MJO on positive(negative) anomalous precipitation over the whole or most of the province is phase 3(phase 6) of strong MJO events in Junes. A Northwest Pacific subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3. Water vapor transporting along the edge of the subtropical high from Western Pacific enhances significantly the water vapor flux over Guangdong, resulting in the enhancement of the precipitation. The condition is reverse during phase 6. The mechanism for which the subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3 is related to the atmospheric response to the asymmetric heating over the eastern Indian Ocean. Analyses of two cases of sustained strong rainfall of Guangdong in June 2010 showed that both of them are closely linked with a MJO state which is both strong and in phase 3, besides the effect from a westerly trough. It is argued further that the MJO activity is indicative of strong rainfall of Guangdong in June. The results in the present work are helpful in developing strategies for forecasting severe rainfall in Guangdong and extending, combined with the outputs of dynamic forecast models, the period of forecasting validity.

MULTI-SCALE CHARACTERISTICS STUDY ON THE FREQUENCY OF FOGGY DAYS OCCURRING IN NANJING IN DECEMBER 2007

Based on the number of foggy days in Nanjing in December from 1980 to 2011, we analyzed the surface temperature and atmospheric circulation characteristics of foggy years and less-foggy years. Positive anomalies of the Arctic Oscillation(AO) were found to weaken the East Asian trough, which is not conducive to the southward migration of cold air. Simultaneously, this atmospheric condition favors stability as a result of a high-pressure anomaly from the middle Yangtze River Delta region. A portion of La Nia events increases the amount of water vapor in the South China Sea region, so this phenomenon could provide the water vapor condition required for foggy days in Nanjing.Based on the data in December 2007, which contained the greatest number of foggy days for the years studied, the source of fog vapor in Nanjing was primarily from southern China and southwest Taiwan Island based on a synoptic scale study. The water vapor in southern China and in the southwestern flow increased, and after a period of 2-3 days,the humidity in Nanjing increased. Simultaneously, the water vapor from the southwestern of Taiwan Island was directly transported to Nanjing by the southerly wind. Therefore, these two areas are the most important sources of water vapor that results in heavy fog in Nanjing. Using the bivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) mode on the surface temperature and precipitable water vapor, the first mode was found to reflect the seasonal variation from early winter to late winter, which reduced the surface temperature on a large scale. The second mode was found to reflect a large-scale,northward, warm and humid airflow that was accompanied by the enhancement of the subtropical high, particularly between December 15-21, which is primarily responsible for the consecutive foggy days in Nanjing.

INFLUENCE OF DIFFERENT-SCALE ERRORS INTERACTIONS ON ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF REGIONAL NWP MODEL

In the previous study, the influences of introducing larger- and smaller-scale errors on the background error covariances estimated at the given scales were investigated, respectively. This study used the eovariances obtained in the previous study in the data assimilation and model forecast system based on three-dimensional variational method and the Weather Research and Forecasting model. In this study, analyses and forecasts from this system with different covariances for a period of one month were compared, and the causes for differing results were presented. The varia- tions of analysis increments with different-scale errors are consistent with those of variances and correlations of back- ground errors that were reported in the previous paper. In particular, the introduction of smaller-scale errors leads to greater amplitudes in analysis increments for medium-scale wind at the heights of both high- and low-level jets. Tem- perature and humidity analysis increments are greater at the corresponding scales at the middle- and upper-levels. These analysis increments could improve the intensity of the jet-convection system that includes jets at different levels and the coupling between them that is associated with latent heat release. These changes in analyses will contribute to more ac- curate wind and temperature forecasts in the corresponding areas. When smaller-scale errors are included, humidity analysis increments are significantly enhanced at large scales and lower levels, to moisten southern analyses. Thus, dry bias can be corrected, which will improve humidity forecasts. Moreover, the inclusion of larger- （smaller-） scale errors will be beneficial for the accuracy of forecasts of heavy （light） precipitation at large （small） scales because of the ampli- fication （diminution） of the intensity and area in precipitation forecasts.

CHARACTERISTICS OF MIDDLE EAST JET STREAM DURING SEASONAL TRANSITION AND ITS RELATION WITH INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON ONSET

By using the NCEP/NCAR pentad reanalysis data from 1968 to 2009, the variation characteristics of Middle East jet stream(MEJS) and its thermal mechanism during seasonal transition are studied. Results show that the intensity and south-north location of MEJS center exhibit obvious seasonal variation characteristics. When MEJS is strong, it is at 27.5°N from the 67 th pentad to the 24 th pentad the following year; when MEJS is weak, it is at 45°N from the 38 th pentad to the 44 th pentad. The first Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) mode of 200-hPa zonal wind field shows that MEJS is mainly over Egypt and Saudi Arabia in winter and over the eastern Black Sea and the eastern Aral Sea in summer. MEJS intensity markedly weakens in summer in comparison with that in winter. The 26th-31 st pentad is the spring-summer transition of MEJS, and the 54th-61 st pentad the autumn-winter transition. During the two seasonal transitions, the temporal variations of the 500-200 hPa south-north temperature difference(SNTD) well match with 200-hPa zonal wind velocity, indicating that the former leads to the latter following the principle of thermal wind. A case analysis shows that there is a close relation between the onset date of Indian summer monsoon and the transition date of MEJS seasonal transition. When the outbreak date of Indian summer monsoon is earlier than normal, MEJS moves northward earlier because the larger SNTD between 500-200 hPa moves northward earlier, with the westerly jet in the lower troposphere over 40°-90°E appearing earlier than normal, and vice versa.

EFFECTS OF AEROSOLS ON AUTUMN PRECIPITATION OVER MID-EASTERN CHINA

Long-term observational data indicated a decreasing trend for the amount of autumn precipitation(i.e. 54.3 mm per decade) over Mid-Eastern China, especially after the 1980s(~ 5.6% per decade). To examine the cause of the decreasing trend, the mechanisms associated with the change of autumn precipitation were investigated from the perspective of water vapor transportation, atmospheric stability and cloud microphysics. Results show that the decrease of convective available potential energy(i.e. 12.81 J kg-1/ decade) and change of cloud microphysics, which were closely related to the increase of aerosol loading during the past twenty years, were the two primary factors responsible for the decrease of autumn precipitation. Our results showed that increased aerosol could enhance the atmospheric stability thus weaken the convection. Meanwhile, more aerosols also led to a significant decline of raindrop concentration and to a delay of raindrop formation because of smaller size of cloud droplets. Thus, increased aerosols produced by air pollution could be one of the major reasons for the decrease of autumn precipitation. Furthermore, we found that the aerosol effects on precipitation in autumn was more significant than in other seasons, partly due to relatively more stable synoptic systems in autumn. The impact of large-scale circulation dominant in autumn and the dynamic influence on precipitation was more important than the thermodynamic activity.

POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG SOUTH CHINA SEA SSTA, SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES IN SOUTHWEST CHINA AND SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN CHINA

By using 1958-2001 NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperature(SST) data, ERA40 reanalysis soil moisture data and precipitation data of 444 stations in China(east of 100°E), the possible relationships among South China Sea(SCS) SST anomaly(SSTA), soil moisture anomalies(SMA) and summer precipitation in eastern China as well as their possible physical processes are investigated. Results show that the SSTA of SCS bears an evidently negative correlation with spring soil moisture in the east part of Southwest China. More(less) precipitation happens in the Yangtze River basin and less(more) in the Southeast China in summer when the SSTA of SCS is higher(lower) than normal and the soil in the east part of Southwest China is dry(wet) in spring. Further analysis shows that when the SSTA of SCS is high(low), the southwesterly wind at low level is weak(strong), decreasing(increasing) the water vapor transport in South China, resulting in reduced(increased) spring precipitation in the east part of Southwest China and more(less) soil moisture in spring. Through the evaporation feedback mechanism, the dry(wet) soil makes the surface temperature higher(lower) in summer, causing the westward extension(eastward retreat) of the West Pacific Subtropical High, eventually leading to the summer precipitation anomalies.

THE INTENSITY VARIATION OF THE SUMMER INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND ITS IMPACT ON TROPICAL CYCLONES

Based on the satellite data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the variation of the intensity of convection over the Intertropical Convergence Zone （ITCZ） in summer and its impacts on tropical cyclones are studied. In this paper, an intensity index of the ITCZ is proposed according to Outgoing Longwave Radiation （OLR） in the region of （5°-20°N, 120°-150°E） in the western North Pacific （WNP）. Then strong and weak ITCZ years are classified and different variables during the strong/weak ITCZ years are analyzed. The composite results show that the ITCZ anomaly is connected to the general atmospheric circulation and SST distribution. In the strong ITCZ years, the subtropical anticyclone weakens and shifts northward. Besides, there is salient cyclonic anomaly at the low level and anticyclonic anomaly at the high level. SST patterns in the preceding winter resemble to those of La Nifia. It could persist into the succeeding summer. However, it is opposite in the weak ITCZ years. The impact of the ITCZ anomaly on the tropical cyclone （TC） formation and track is also discussed. There are more TCs over the WNP （5°-20°N, 120°-150°E） in the strong ITCZ years and there is a significant increase in the northward recurving TCs. In the weak ITCZ years, fewer TCs occur and the frequency of the northwestward track is higher.

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS FOR THE EFFECTS OF TWO MODEL INITIALIZATION SCHEMES ON RAINFALL FORECAST IN THE 2008 FLOODING SEASON

In this paper, based on heavy rain numerical forecast model AREM(Advanced Regional Eta Model), two different initialization schemes, LAPS and GRAPES-3DVAR, are used to run assimilation experiments of AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR with the same data source(NCEP forecast field, surface data and radio-soundings) during the period from 21 May to 30 July 2008 to investigate the effect of the two initialization schemes on the rainfall simulation. The result suggests that:(1) the forecast TS score by the AREM-LAPS is higher than that by the AREM-3DVAR for rainfall in different areas, at different valid time and with different intensity, especially for the heavy rain, rainstorm and extremely heavy rain;(2) the AREM-3DVAR can generally simulate the average rainfall distribution, but the forecast area is smaller and rainfall intensity is weaker than the observation, while the AREM-LAPS significantly improves the forecast;(3) the AREM-LAPS gives a better forecast for the south-north shift of rainfall bands and the rainfall intensity variation than the AREM-3DVAR;(4) the AREM-LAPS can give a better reproduction for the daily change in the mean-rainfall-rate of the main rain band, and rainfall intensity changes in the eastern part of Southwest China, the coastal area in South China, the middle-lower valleys of Yangtze river, the Valleys of Huaihe river, and Shandong peninsula, with the rainfall intensity roughly close to the observation, while the rainfall intensity simulated by the AREM-3DVAR is clearly weaker than the observation, especially in the eastern part of Southwest China; and(5) the comparison verification between the AREM-LAPS and AREM-3DVAR for more than 10 typical rainfall processes in the summer of 2008 indicates that the AREM-LAPS gives a much better forecast than AREM-3DVAR in rain-band area, rainfall location and intensity, and in particular, the rainfall intensity forecast is improved obviously.