海洋-大气耦合模型对大气二氧化碳增加的响应

本文研究一个气候模型对大气CO_2每年增加1%的响应。该模型是耦合海洋-大气-陆面系统的大气环流模型,具有全球计算域,进行了地理上的修匀,并包含了日射的季节变化。模拟得到的海面增温在北大西洋北部和南半球的绕极海区非常缓慢,在这些海区水体的垂直混合可以达到很深的深度,深层水的交换速度也较快。为将这一工作深入下去,我们研究了过去几百年间该耦合模型对大气CO_2浓度增至2倍和4倍时的瞬时响应。在整个500年实验期间,当CO_2增至2倍时,全球平均地面气温增加3.5C,当CO_2增至4倍时升高7C。在后一项实验中,所研究的海洋的热力结构和动力特征都经历了剧烈的变化,例如,模型所选取的海洋大多数都发生了温盐环流的终止,斜温层也显著变深,在北大西洋,这些变化尤其明显。这些变化阻碍了深层海水的交换,如果这些变化实际发生,将对海洋-大气耦合系统的碳循环和生物地球化学过程产生深远影响。

大气-海洋-海浪耦合同化模式在台风过程模拟中的应用

基于MCT耦合器,利用中尺度大气模型WRF、海洋模型FVCOM和第三代海浪模型SWAN,实现大气、海洋和海浪的三者实时耦合计算,同时采用卫星微波辐射资料AMSU-A,通过WRF大气模式的资料同化模块WRFDA,实现对风场模拟的连续同化,从而建立起大气-海洋-海浪耦合与卫星数据同化的W-F-S-A耦合同化模式。将该模型应用于2014年台风“威马逊”的数值模拟,并与其他模型进行比较。结果表明,W-F-S-A耦合同化模式对于台风路径和风速的模拟结果优于单独耦合和单独同化结果,并且可以较好地模拟上层海洋对台风的响应特征。

山东半岛北部海洋动力环境的高频地波雷达观测

利用两台高频地波雷达(ground wave radar,WERA)站对山东半岛北部雷达覆盖海区的浪、流场进行了观测,并且利用海洋-大气-波浪耦合沉积输运模型(coupled-ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport modeling system,COAWST)对该区域的一个强风暴过程进行了数值模拟,对雷达观测数据、现场声学多普勒流速剖面仪(acoustic Doppler current profilers,ADCP)调查数据和数值模拟结果进行比对分析发现,模型模拟的水位变化与ADCP测量结果一致,WERA所观测到的有效波高和ADCP结果比较吻合,模型模拟的ADCP站位的流速相位、大小与雷达观测结果比较接近,与ADCP的结果有一定偏差。雷达观测的海区流场结果与模型反映趋势基本一致,但是在近岸方向上变化较大,其原因可能与ADCP的投放位置、模型的分辨率设置等因素有关。高频地波雷达系统是海岸带动力环境观测的一个有效工具,在实际应用中有着广泛的前景。

INTERCOMPARISON OF THE INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CHINA SIMULATED BY AOGCMS FROM THE IPCC-DDC

Simulations of the interdecadal variations of summer rainfall over China are assessed from 5 coupled AOGCMs from the Data Distribution Center (DDC) of the Intergovernmental Panel in Climate Change (IPCC) under the IPCC-Special Report in Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenario. We examined their ability in simulating the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation over China from 1951 to 1990. The difference before and after the mid-1960’s and the late 1970’s is given respectively to check the capability of the models, especially in reproducing the rainfall jump in North China. We also investigated the interdecadal variations simulated by the models in the 1990’s and the average of 2001-2020 in the future under the scenario A2 and B2. The analysis shows that the current AOGCMs is not good enough in simulating the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation in China. The interdecadal variations of summer rainfall simulated by most of the models cannot reproduce the observation in North China. Higher resolution models are suggested to well simulate the interdecadal variability in regional scale.

Indian Ocean Dipole Response to Global Warming: A Multi-Member Study with CCSM4

Based on a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, the response of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode to global warming is investigated with a six member ensemble of simulations for the period 1850-2100. The model can simulate the IOD features rea-listically, including the east-west dipole pattern and the phase locking in boreal autumn. The ensemble analysis suppresses internal variability and isolates the radiative forced response. In response to increasing greenhouse gases, a weakening of the Walker circula-tion leads to the easterly wind anomalies in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the shoaling thermocline in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO), and sea surface temperature and precipitation changes show an IOD-like pattern in the equatorial Indian Ocean. Al-though the thermocline feedback intensifies with shoaling, the interannual variability of the IOD mode surprisingly weakens under global warming. The zonal wind feedback of IOD is found to weaken as well, due to decreased precipitation in the EEIO. Therefore, the atmospheric feedback decreases much more than the oceanic feedback increases, causing the decreased IOD variance in this model.

MJO Simulations by GAMIL1.0 and GAMIL2.0

GAMIL2.0 is the newly released version of the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG(GAMIL),in which the major modifications from GAMIL1.0 include an updated deep convection scheme and the incorporation of a two-moment bulk stratiform cloud microphysics scheme.This study evaluates the performances of both versions on Madden Julian Oscillation(MJO) simulations.The results show that GAMIL2.0 obtains an enhanced MJO eastward and northward propagation,which is weak in GAMIL1.0,and it reproduces a more reasonable MJO major structure coupling upper level wind,lower level wind,and outgoing long wave radiation.The contributions of each scheme and factor to the improvement of GAMIL2.0 simulations need further study.

硫酸盐非均相机制对颗粒物污染的影响:上海典型污染事件的WRF-Chem模拟

硫酸盐气溶胶是大气中细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))的重要组成部分,对霾的形成起着重要作用.传统的模式中硫酸盐生成机制主要包括SO_(2)与·OH的气相反应和SO_(2)·H_(2)O水合物产生的亚硫酸与O_(3)/H_(2)O_(2)的液相反应.SO_(2)非均相生成硫酸盐的机制(在高NH_(3)情景下,以NO_(2)为氧化剂,非均相摄取SO_(2))非常重要,尤其成为重污染期间颗粒物浓度暴发性增长的原因之一.将硫酸盐非均相机制的参数化方案纳入WRF-Chem模式,模拟了2017年1月的长三角区域污染物浓度,评估了硫酸盐非均相反应对颗粒物浓度模拟的提高及其对长三角重污染的贡献.结果表明,传统WRF-Chem模式模拟的上海地区硫酸盐月均浓度为6.5μg·m^(-3),较观测值低估33%;尤其是在重颗粒物污染期间,低估高达127%.加入硫酸盐非均相机制后,WRF-Chem对硫酸盐的模拟效果得到显著提升,月均硫酸盐模拟浓度较传统模式提高2.1μg·m^(-3),更好地与地面观测站点的观测值匹配(标准化平均偏差由-48%~-34%降低到-29%~-13%);尤其是在颗粒物污染时段,硫酸盐浓度的提升高达28.2~37.2μg·m^(-3)(104%~167%).研究提高了对长三角地区冬季大气污染的模拟能力,为制定科学地管控策略提供了支持.