利用欧洲中期天气预报中心European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)最新的第五代再分析资料ECMWF Reanalysis v5(ERA5),定义了大风事件,使用经验正交分解等方法分析了1979-2021年中国南海海表风速和大风事件的变化特...利用欧洲中期天气预报中心European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)最新的第五代再分析资料ECMWF Reanalysis v5(ERA5),定义了大风事件,使用经验正交分解等方法分析了1979-2021年中国南海海表风速和大风事件的变化特征,并对是否受热带气旋的影响进行了区分。结果发现,南海风速分布呈现出十分明显的季节特征,冬季主要为东北风,夏季为西南风;春、夏季南海东北部与其他地区风速变化存在反向关系,除东北部沿海地区外,春季平均风速变化经历了减小-增大-减小的变化,总体呈较弱的增加趋势;而夏季则是增大-减少-增大,总体呈减小趋势。秋季南海风速呈全区一致的变化,呈减小趋势。冬季变为东南与其余部分反向,除西南部外,风速呈显著增强趋势。大风事件发生在风速较大的区域和时间内,冬季和秋季发生大风事件的频次要高于春季和秋季,冬半年要高于夏半年;在冬季和冬半年,大风事件的发生频次在南海中部长山山脉东侧直到南海东北部台湾海峡附近有显著上升趋势;大风事件频次变化趋势随季节改变有很大的差异,冬季和春季大风事件频次变化趋势与夏季和秋季相反。夏半年大风事件频次变化融合了夏季和秋季的变化趋势特点;类似的冬半年大风事件频次融合了冬季和春季的变化趋势特点。在夏季,秋季和夏半年这些受到南海夏季季风影响的季节内,热带气旋对发生的大风事件频次影响更大;对在冬季,春季和冬半年发生的大风事件则影响较小。展开更多
Decadal variations of extreme tropical cyclones （TCs） influencing China were. investigated based on the tracks, landfall information, precipitation and wind data during 1949-2009. The extreme landfall date events ar...Decadal variations of extreme tropical cyclones （TCs） influencing China were. investigated based on the tracks, landfall information, precipitation and wind data during 1949-2009. The extreme landfall date events are less in the 1970s and 2000s. The number of extreme events of maximum wind speed and minimum pressure near TC＇s center reached the highest in the 2000s. The extreme rain duration events had the highest frequence in the 1970s, and the extreme strong wind duration events had the maximum frequence in the 1980s. The number of stations whereat the extreme maximum daily precipitation or process precipitation is observed, is the largest in the 1960s, and the number of stations whereat daily maximum wind speed events axe observed, is the largest in the 1980s.展开更多
This paper aims to compare and contrast two site-specific performance productions, both designed to grapple with processes of cultural remembrance, whilst also operating as successful tourist attractions. The narrativ...This paper aims to compare and contrast two site-specific performance productions, both designed to grapple with processes of cultural remembrance, whilst also operating as successful tourist attractions. The narratives encompassed by both productions revolve around shared Australian histories, for audiences attracted by place and what it is able to represent. Re-enactments of past events call into the present a consideration of what still remains, with both shows enabling new subjective interpretations of earlier times. The defining difference between the two, however, rests in the context of each performance, in the one case as a commodification of heritage and in the other case as the desire to produce an artistic yet popular theatrical product. Ballarat＇s, Sovereign Hill＇s light and sound show, Blood on the Southern Cross celebrates and commemorates, in mega-spectacle style, the Eureka Stockade, one of Australia＇s key historical events. Using a mechanised display of the original goldmining site of the Eureka rebellion, the performance is operated by computers with video-projection, multi-phonic sound, and moving model forms, with audiences moved around the massive site on transporters. The Piccolo Tales, a contrasting performance most notably in terms of size, unfolds the history of Kings Cross, through its setting in the miniscule iconic Piccolo Bar, in one of the tiny side streets of Sydney＇s bustling and densest suburb. This paper encompasses an investigation of how the cultural inscriptions of the two specific sites interweave with the performance styles, materials, political and social positioning of the works. Previous performance studies examining site-specificity are utilised, including the author＇s analysis of particular festival performances as ＂place-making＂ （Hayes, 2012, 2013）. Smith＇s （2009） model of ＂signposts＂ is used to consider acting within site-specific productions in a new light, whilst both performances are more completely analysed through Schneider＇s （2011） concept of incomplete pasts forming ＂cycles of memory＂.展开更多
Objective:Correctly understanding and evaluating the level of public risk perception toward public health emergencies not only helps experts and decision-makers understand the public’s preventative health behaviors t...Objective:Correctly understanding and evaluating the level of public risk perception toward public health emergencies not only helps experts and decision-makers understand the public’s preventative health behaviors to these emergencies but also enhances their risk information communication with the public.The aim of this study was to develop a risk perception scale for public health emergencies and test its validity and reliability during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic.Methods:Guided by the theoretical model of risk perception,an initial scale was generated through literature review,group meetings,resident interviews,and expert consultation.A pretest and item screening were then conducted to develop a formal risk perception scale for public health emergencies.Finally,the reliability and validity of the scale were validated through a questionnaire survey of 504 Chinese adults.Results:The final scale had 9 items.The content validity index of the scale was 0.968,and the content validity index of individual items ranged from 0.83 to 1.00.Three common factors,dread risk perception,severe risk perception,and unknown risk perception,were extracted for exploratory factor analysis,and together they explained 66.26%of the variance in the score.Confirmatory factor analysis showed that the model had a satisfactory fit,whereχ^(2)/df=1.384,the goodness-of-fit index(GFI)=0.989,root mean square error of approximation(RMSEA)=0.028,root mean square residual(RMR)=0.018,comparative fit index(CFI)=0.995,normed fit index(NFI)=0.982,and non-normed fit index(NNFI)=0.990.The correlations between dimensions ranged from 0.306 to 0.483(P<0.01).Cronbach’s a was 0.793 for the total scale and ranged between 0.687 and 0.801 for the individual dimensions.The split-half coefficient was 0.861 for the total scale and ranged from 0.727 to 0.856 for induvial dimensions.The test-retest coefficient was 0.846 for the total scale and ranged from 0.843 to 0.868 for induvial dimensions.Conclusion:The developed scale for the risk perception of public health emergencies showed acceptable levels of reliability and validity,suggesting that it is suitable for evaluating residents’risk perception of public health emergencies.展开更多
文摘利用欧洲中期天气预报中心European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)最新的第五代再分析资料ECMWF Reanalysis v5(ERA5),定义了大风事件,使用经验正交分解等方法分析了1979-2021年中国南海海表风速和大风事件的变化特征,并对是否受热带气旋的影响进行了区分。结果发现,南海风速分布呈现出十分明显的季节特征,冬季主要为东北风,夏季为西南风;春、夏季南海东北部与其他地区风速变化存在反向关系,除东北部沿海地区外,春季平均风速变化经历了减小-增大-减小的变化,总体呈较弱的增加趋势;而夏季则是增大-减少-增大,总体呈减小趋势。秋季南海风速呈全区一致的变化,呈减小趋势。冬季变为东南与其余部分反向,除西南部外,风速呈显著增强趋势。大风事件发生在风速较大的区域和时间内,冬季和秋季发生大风事件的频次要高于春季和秋季,冬半年要高于夏半年;在冬季和冬半年,大风事件的发生频次在南海中部长山山脉东侧直到南海东北部台湾海峡附近有显著上升趋势;大风事件频次变化趋势随季节改变有很大的差异,冬季和春季大风事件频次变化趋势与夏季和秋季相反。夏半年大风事件频次变化融合了夏季和秋季的变化趋势特点;类似的冬半年大风事件频次融合了冬季和春季的变化趋势特点。在夏季,秋季和夏半年这些受到南海夏季季风影响的季节内,热带气旋对发生的大风事件频次影响更大;对在冬季,春季和冬半年发生的大风事件则影响较小。
基金supported by the National Key Technology Research and Development Program(No. 2008BAC44B03,2007BAC29B04)
文摘Decadal variations of extreme tropical cyclones （TCs） influencing China were. investigated based on the tracks, landfall information, precipitation and wind data during 1949-2009. The extreme landfall date events are less in the 1970s and 2000s. The number of extreme events of maximum wind speed and minimum pressure near TC＇s center reached the highest in the 2000s. The extreme rain duration events had the highest frequence in the 1970s, and the extreme strong wind duration events had the maximum frequence in the 1980s. The number of stations whereat the extreme maximum daily precipitation or process precipitation is observed, is the largest in the 1960s, and the number of stations whereat daily maximum wind speed events axe observed, is the largest in the 1980s.
文摘This paper aims to compare and contrast two site-specific performance productions, both designed to grapple with processes of cultural remembrance, whilst also operating as successful tourist attractions. The narratives encompassed by both productions revolve around shared Australian histories, for audiences attracted by place and what it is able to represent. Re-enactments of past events call into the present a consideration of what still remains, with both shows enabling new subjective interpretations of earlier times. The defining difference between the two, however, rests in the context of each performance, in the one case as a commodification of heritage and in the other case as the desire to produce an artistic yet popular theatrical product. Ballarat＇s, Sovereign Hill＇s light and sound show, Blood on the Southern Cross celebrates and commemorates, in mega-spectacle style, the Eureka Stockade, one of Australia＇s key historical events. Using a mechanised display of the original goldmining site of the Eureka rebellion, the performance is operated by computers with video-projection, multi-phonic sound, and moving model forms, with audiences moved around the massive site on transporters. The Piccolo Tales, a contrasting performance most notably in terms of size, unfolds the history of Kings Cross, through its setting in the miniscule iconic Piccolo Bar, in one of the tiny side streets of Sydney＇s bustling and densest suburb. This paper encompasses an investigation of how the cultural inscriptions of the two specific sites interweave with the performance styles, materials, political and social positioning of the works. Previous performance studies examining site-specificity are utilised, including the author＇s analysis of particular festival performances as ＂place-making＂ （Hayes, 2012, 2013）. Smith＇s （2009） model of ＂signposts＂ is used to consider acting within site-specific productions in a new light, whilst both performances are more completely analysed through Schneider＇s （2011） concept of incomplete pasts forming ＂cycles of memory＂.
文摘Objective:Correctly understanding and evaluating the level of public risk perception toward public health emergencies not only helps experts and decision-makers understand the public’s preventative health behaviors to these emergencies but also enhances their risk information communication with the public.The aim of this study was to develop a risk perception scale for public health emergencies and test its validity and reliability during the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic.Methods:Guided by the theoretical model of risk perception,an initial scale was generated through literature review,group meetings,resident interviews,and expert consultation.A pretest and item screening were then conducted to develop a formal risk perception scale for public health emergencies.Finally,the reliability and validity of the scale were validated through a questionnaire survey of 504 Chinese adults.Results:The final scale had 9 items.The content validity index of the scale was 0.968,and the content validity index of individual items ranged from 0.83 to 1.00.Three common factors,dread risk perception,severe risk perception,and unknown risk perception,were extracted for exploratory factor analysis,and together they explained 66.26%of the variance in the score.Confirmatory factor analysis showed that the model had a satisfactory fit,whereχ^(2)/df=1.384,the goodness-of-fit index(GFI)=0.989,root mean square error of approximation(RMSEA)=0.028,root mean square residual(RMR)=0.018,comparative fit index(CFI)=0.995,normed fit index(NFI)=0.982,and non-normed fit index(NNFI)=0.990.The correlations between dimensions ranged from 0.306 to 0.483(P<0.01).Cronbach’s a was 0.793 for the total scale and ranged between 0.687 and 0.801 for the individual dimensions.The split-half coefficient was 0.861 for the total scale and ranged from 0.727 to 0.856 for induvial dimensions.The test-retest coefficient was 0.846 for the total scale and ranged from 0.843 to 0.868 for induvial dimensions.Conclusion:The developed scale for the risk perception of public health emergencies showed acceptable levels of reliability and validity,suggesting that it is suitable for evaluating residents’risk perception of public health emergencies.
