“96.7.2”特大暴雨天气动力过程诊断分析

通过分析1996年7月2日鄂东北特大暴雨环流背景、中低层辐合系统及物理量场,揭示这场特大暴雨的物理机制和各要素场特征;并利用数值模拟,探讨地形的增雨作用.

新疆“4·18”特强大风过程天气动力学分析与预报技术评估

1998年4月18日新疆出现了一次特强大风，大风过程起动猛、移速快、风力强、范围广、灾害重，是一次历史上罕见的在大型环流调整前夕，南支强锋区上中尺度系统突发性增强而引起的强风过程。在缺乏中亚地区气象资料的情况下，对于这种突发性增强过程，常用的天气学预报技术显得十分无力。

商洛市一次晚霜冻天气过程分析

利用常规观测资料、卫星云图及物理量场资料，应用天气动力诊断分析方法，对2013年4月4-6日商洛市一次晚霜冻过程分析。结果表明，此次晚霜冻是在前期降水及气候偏暖的背景下发生的，由高空冷平流和夜间晴空辐射降温形成的混合型霜冻；前期500 hPa暖脊发展明显，地面升温迅速，后期大槽冷锋东移南下，冷空气暴发；强盛的冷平流和地面暖倒槽，为降温提供了有利的温度条件。

500hPa高度场的信号场突变与我国暴雨的发生规律性研究

作者在500hPa高度信号场与我国暴雨发生的规律研究基础上,进一步寻找高度信号场能显示与暴雨的突变现象有关的异常信号出现的地区和描述指标。发现异常信号出现的地区大致可分为三个区域:我国境外西部、我国内陆地区和我国境外东部,可以反映区域信号场的主要特征,并由此形成信号场指标。研究表明,利用致洪暴雨发生日的前期信号场指标序列,其累积距平和逐日滑动平均值与我国暴雨出现有密切关系。对我国年度暴雨短期预报分析有一定的参考价值,可以作为传统天气动力诊断与预测的补充工具。

2003年7月4～7日淮河流域特大暴雨等熵位涡分析

利用等熵位涡理论对 2 0 0 3年江淮梅雨期 7月 4～ 7日淮河流域特大暴雨进行了天气动力诊断分析。发现 :等熵面上的西风急流将高位涡向下游输送 ,强西北气流穿越等压线形成强下沉气流 ,将高层和高纬的高等熵位涡向南输送 ,使得强降雨区维持高等熵位涡 ,是强雨带持续的重要原因。等熵位涡高值区与强暴雨有较好的对应关系 。

一次典型的致灾暴雨成因分析

利用自动气象站资料、Micaps常规资料、数值预报产品等气象资料,采用天气学和天气动力诊断分析方法,对2012年7月7-8日商丘暴雨过程进行了综合分析。结果表明,西太平洋副热带高压稳定少动,高空配合西风槽和冷空气的侵入,中低层切变线的动力抬升,西南低空急流强盛的水汽输送,地面冷暖气团的交汇,共同影响造成了商丘连续性暴雨;大面积的K指数高值区具备暴雨不稳定能量。

Fluidized-bed chlorination thermodynamics and kinetics of Kenya natural rutile ore

Natural rutile and gaseous chlorine with carbon as reductant were used to prepare titanium tetrachloride. Thermodynamics and kinetics of chlorination of Kenya natural rutile particles in a batch-type fluidized bed were studied at 1173-1273 K. Thermodynamic analysis of this system revealed that the equation of producing CO was dominant at high temperatures. Based on the gas-solid multi-phase reaction theory and a two-phase model for the fluidized bed, the mathematical description for the chlorination reaction of rutile was proposed. The reaction parameters and the average concentration of gaseous chlorine in the emulsion phase were estimated. The average concentration of emulsion phase in the range of fluidized bed was calculated as 0.3 mol/m^3. The results showed that the chlorination of natural rutile proceeded principally in the emulsion phase, and the reaction rate was mainly controlled by the surface reaction.

我省气象科考团赴日归来

以省局副局长、省气象学会理事长张裕道为团长和省局科教处处长、省气象学会常务理事杨永岐,省气象台副台长、省气象学会天气动力专业委员会副主任张廷治和省科委农艺师谭凤梧为团员的中国辽宁省气象科学技术考察团于1994年6月5～19日先后到日本熊本、福岗、东京、筑波、千叶、松户、柏市、我孙子市等地进行科技考察和学术交流。

A Review of the Nonlinear Dynamics of Intraseasonal Oscillations

In recent years,significant progress has been made regarding theories of intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) (also known as the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in the tropics).This short review introduces the latest advances in ISO theories with an emphasis particularly on theoretical paradigms involving nonlinear dynamics in the following aspects:(1) the basic ideas and limitations of the previous and current theories and hypotheses regarding the MJO,(2) the new multi-scale theory of the MJO based on the intraseasonal planetary equatorial synoptic dynamics (IPESD) framework,and (3) nonlinear dynamics of ISOs in the extratropics based on the resonant triads of Rossby-Haurwitz waves.

DIAGNOSIS OF WAVE ACTIVITY OVER RAINBAND OF LANDFALL TYPHOON

A generalized wave-activity density, which is defined as an absolute value of production of three-dimensional vorticity vector perturbation and gradient of general potential temperature perturbation, is introduced and its wave-activity law is derived in Cartesian coordinates. Constructed in an agoestrophic and nonhydrostatie dynamical framework, the generalized wave-activity law may be applicable to diagnose mesoscale weather systems leading to heavy rainfall. The generalized wave-activity density and wave-activity flux divergence were calculated with the objective analysis data to investigate the character of wave activity over heavy-rainfall regions. The primary dynamical processes responsible for disturbance associated with heavy rainfall were also analyzed. It was shown that the generalized wave-activity density was closely correlated to the observed 6-h accumulative rainfall. This indicated that the wave activity or disturbance was evident over the frontal and landfall-typhoon heavy-rainfall regions in middle and lower troposphere. For the landfall-typhoon rainband, the portion of generalized wave-activity flux divergence, denoting the interaction between the basic-state cyclonic circulation of landfall typhoon and mesoscale waves, was the primary dynamic process responsible for the evolution of generalized wave-activity density.

Development of a High-Resolution Coastal Circulation Model for the Ocean Observatory in Lunenburg Bay

An advanced ocean observatory has been established in Lunenburg Bay of Nova Scotia, Canada as part of an interdisciplinary research project of marine environmental prediction. The development of a high-resolution coastal circulation model is one of important components of the observatory. The model horizontal resolution is 60 m and the vertical resolution is about 1 m. The coastal circulation model is used to simulate the semi-diurnal tidal circulation and associated nonlinear dynamics with the M2 forcing specified at the model open boundaries. The model is also used to simulate the storm-induced circulation in the bay during Hurricane Juan in September 2003, with the model forcing to be the combination of tides and remotely generated waves specified at the model open boundaries and wind stress applied at the sea surface. The model results demonstrate strong interactions between the local wind stress, tidal forcing, and remotely generated waves during this period. Comparison of model results with the surface elevation and current observations demonstrates that the coastal circulation model has reasonable skills in simulating the tidal and storm-induced circulation in the bay.

Dynamic action simulation system and preliminary experiments of coal seams and gas

In order to study the dynamic action and physical effects of coal seams and gas, a simulation system for this dynamic action was developed and a physical model built in our laboratory. Using this newly built model, the volume of coal outbursts and the temperature during the outburst process were studied. The results show that： l） for coal seams with similar structure and com- ponents, two factors, i.e., gas pressure and ground stress affect the volume of coal outbursts, with gas pressure being the more im- portant of the two and 2） the changes in coal temperature, both its increase and decrease, are affected by ground stress and gas pressure, it is a process of change. Preliminary tests show that the system can simulate the dynamic interaction of coal and gas, which is helpful for studying the dynamic mechanism of solid-gas coupling of gas and coal.

Kinetic and Phase Behaviors of Catalytic Cracking Dry Gas Hydrate in Water-in-Oil Emulsion

The systematic experimental studies were performed on the hydrate formation kinetics and gas-hydrate equilibrium for a simulated catalytic cracking gas in the water-in-oil emulsion. The effect of temperature, pressure and initial gas-liquid ratio on the hydrate formation was studied, respectively. The data were obtained at pressures ranging from 3.5 to 5 MPa and temperatur.es from 274.15 to 277.15 K. The results showed that hydrogen and methane can be separated Irom the （~2＋ ti＇action by tOrming hydrate at around 273.15 K which is much higher temperature than that of the cryogenic separation method, and the hydrate formation rate can be enhanced in the wa- ter-in-oil emulsion compared to pure water. The experiments provided the basic data for designing the industrial process, and setting the suitable operational conditions. The measured data ot gas-hydrate equilibria were compared with the predictions by using the Chen-Guo hydrate thermodynamic model.

Predicting climate anomalies:A real challenge

In recent decades,the damage and economic losses caused by climate change and extreme climate events have been increasing rapidly.Although scientists all over the world have made great efforts to understand and predict climatic variations,there are still several major problems for improving climate prediction.In 2020,the Center for Climate System Prediction Research(CCSP) was established with support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China.CCSP aims to tackle three scientific problems related to climate prediction—namely,El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) prediction,extended-range weather forecasting,and interannual-to-decadal climate prediction—and hence provide a solid scientific basis for more reliable climate predictions and disaster prevention.In this paper,the major objectives and scientific challenges of CCSP are reported,along with related achievements of its research groups in monsoon dynamics,land-atmosphere interaction and model development,ENSO variability,intraseasonal oscillation,and climate prediction.CCSP will endeavor to tackle key scientific problems in these areas.

Integration Possibility of Urban Public Bus System and Cable Car in Maribor

Combination of a bus system and cable car system can reduce the overall congestion of traffic in urban areas, where surrounding hills or mountains hold larger settlements or tourist and recreational infrastructure. With this kind of integration number of individual car trips can be significantly reduced. In this paper, the authors present an analysis of the pilot project implementation, which was held in Maribor. The authors conducted a limited test trial of two means of transportation, combining them into a single operating transport offer for inhabitants and tourists. Combined transport option proved to be a good starting point for reduction of traffic and parking congestion during winter tourist season and beyond. Method used in the research, in order to gain actual potential of integrating two systems and improving public transport offer, was establishment and implementation of the pilot project in Maribor during January 2011. Data was gathered through interviews of two interest groups. The first covered the users who were brought to the foothills of Pohorje＇s ski center by bus. The second covered the cable car users that were traveling to the top of Pohorje. For a limited time period, a trial principle of a single ticket was established, which gave ski-pass holders free bus ride on bus line No. 6. With the aim of reducing CO2, test drives of hybrid bus and compressed natural gas bus were conducted alongside many promotional activities with which users were informed of importance of environmentally friendly mobility options.

Impact of Weather Conditions and Dynamic Load Models on Steady State and Dynamic Response of Power System

This paper gives an insight on the effect of transmission line temperature variations, resulting from loading and weather conditions changes, on a power system＇s steady state and dynamic performance. The impact of dynamic load models on system stability is also studied. The steady-state and dynamic stability simulation results of a 39 bus system for constant line impedance （the traditional simulation practice） are compared to the results with estimated, but realistic, temperature varied line impedances using PSLF （positive sequence load flow） software. The modulated line impedances will affect the thermal loading levels and voltage profiles of buses under steady state response, while the dynamic results will show improved damping in electro-mechanical oscillations at generator buses.

Extracting predictable components and forecasting techniques in extended-range numerical weather prediction

This paper refers to the CNOP-related algorithms and formulates the practical method and forecast techniques of extracting predictable components in a numerical model for predictable components on extended-range scales.Model variables are divided into predictable components and unpredictable chaotic components from the angle of model prediction error growth.The predictable components are defined as those with a slow error growth at a given range.A targeted numerical model for predictable components is established based on the operational dynamical extended-range forecast(DERF)model of the National Climate Center.At the same time,useful information in historical data are combined to find the fields for predictable components in the numerical model that are similar to those for the predictable components in historical data,reducing the variable dimensions in a similar judgment process and further correcting prediction errors of predictable components.Historical data is used to obtain the expected value and variance of the chaotic components through the ensemble forecast method.The numerical experiment results show that this method can effectively improve the forecast skill of the atmospheric circulation field in the 10–30 days extended-range numerical model and has good prospects for operational applications.

Establishing a non-hydrostatic global atmospheric modeling system at3-km horizontal resolution with aerosol feedbacks on the Sunway supercomputer of China

During the era of global warming and highly urbanized development,extreme and high impact weather as well as air pollution incidents influence everyday life and might even cause the incalculable loss of life and property.Despite the vast development of atmospheric models,there still exist substantial numerical forecast biases objectively.To accurately predict extreme weather,severe air pollution,and abrupt climate change,numerical atmospheric model requires not only to simulate meteorology and atmospheric compositions simultaneously involving many sophisticated physical and chemical processes but also at high spatiotemporal resolution.Global integrated atmospheric simulation at spatial resolutions of a few kilometers remains challenging due to its intensive computational and input/output(I/O)requirement.Through multi-dimension-parallelism structuring,aggressive and finer-grained optimizing,manual vectorizing,and parallelized I/O fragmenting,an integrated Atmospheric Model Across Scales(iAMAS)was established on the new Sunway supercomputer platform to significantly increase the computational efficiency and reduce the I/O cost.The global 3-km atmospheric simulation for meteorology with online integrated aerosol feedbacks with iAMAS was scaled to 39,000,000 processor cores and achieved the speed of 0.82 simulation day per hour(SDPH)with routine I/O,which enabled us to perform 5-day global weather forecast at 3-km horizontal resolution with online natural aerosol impacts.The results demonstrate the promising future that the increasing of spatial resolution to a few kilometers with online integrated aerosol feedbacks may significantly improve the global weather forecast.

Improved method to derive equivalent current systems from global MHD simulations

Derivation of equivalent current systems(ECS)from a global magnetospheric magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model is very useful in studying magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling,ground induction effects,and space weather forecast.In this study we introduce an improved method to derive the ECS from a global MHD model,which takes account of the obliqueness of the magnetic field lines.By comparing the ECS derived from this improved method and the previous method,we find that the main characteristics of the ECS derived from the two methods are generally consistent with each other,but the eastward-westward component of the geomagnetic perturbation calculated from the ECS derived from the improved method is much stronger than that from the previous method.We then compare the geomagnetic perturbation as a function of the interplanetary magnetic field(IMF)clock angle calculated from the ECS derived from both methods with the observations.The comparison indicates that the improved method can improve the performance of the simulation.Furthermore,it is found that the incomplete counterbalance of the geomagnetic effect produced by the ionospheric poloidal current and field-aligned current(FAC)contributes to most of the eastward-westward component of geomagnetic perturbation.

Simulation of two-phase plume field of liquid thruster

When the liquid propellant thruster works,its plume field would contain many propellant liquid droplets,especially at pulse state.Liquid droplets may move along with the gas flow and deposit on the components of spacecraft as contamination.The simulation of the plume field involving the gas molecules and liquid droplets is an important part in contamination studies of thruster plume.Based on the PWS software developed by Beihang University(BUAA),axial-symmetric two-phase direct simulation Monte Carlo(DSMC) method is used with the liquid droplet taken as a kind of solid particle.The computation of gas-to-particle effect and gas reflection on the particle surface are decoupled.The inter-particle collision is also considered.The gas parameters at nozzle exit of 120N engine after 20 ms pulse work are taken as the entrance condition of the numerical simulation.Four test cases are conducted for comparison of different collision modules.Simulation results show that the effects of liquid propellant droplets mainly concentrate near the axis line of engine.The particle-to-gas collision would cause evident differences in the gas field and subtle differences in the particle phase.The liquid droplets in the plume field are generally accelerated and convected by the gas molecules.The DSMC method is proved to be a feasible solver to numerically simulate the two-phase flow involving solid phase and rarefied gas flow.