Total Cloud Cover （TCC） over China deter- mined from four climate datasets including the Interna- tional Satellite Cloud Climatology Project （ISCCP）, the 40-year Re-Analysis Project of the European Centre for Medi...Total Cloud Cover （TCC） over China deter- mined from four climate datasets including the Interna- tional Satellite Cloud Climatology Project （ISCCP）, the 40-year Re-Analysis Project of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ERA-40）, Climate Research Unit Time Series 3.0 （CRU3）, and ground sta- tion datasets are used to show spatial and temporal varia- tion of TCC and their differences. It is demonstrated that the four datasets show similar spatial pattern and seasonal variation. The maximum value is derived from ISCCE TCC value in North China derived from ERA-40 is 50% larger than that from the station dataset; however, the value is 50% less than that in South China. The annual TCC of ISCCP, ERA-40, and ground station datasets shows a decreasing trend during 1984-2002; however, an increasing trend is derived from CRU3. The results of this study imply remarkable differences of TCC derived from surface and satellite observations as well as model simu- lations. The potential effects of these differences on cloud climatology and associated climatic issues should be carefully considered.展开更多
Rain infiltration into a soil slope leads to propagation of the wetting front, transport of air in pores and deformation of the soils, in which coupled processes among the solid, liquid and gas phases are typically in...Rain infiltration into a soil slope leads to propagation of the wetting front, transport of air in pores and deformation of the soils, in which coupled processes among the solid, liquid and gas phases are typically involved. Most previous studies on the unsaturated flow and its influence on slope stability were based on the singlephase water flow model (i.e., the Richards Equation) or the waterair two-phase flow model. The effects of gas transport and soil deformation on the movement of groundwater and the evolution of slope stability were less examined with a coupled solid-water-air model. In this paper, a numerical model was established based on the principles of the continuum mechanics and the averaging approach of the mixture theory and implemented in an FEM code for analysis of the coupled deformation, water flow and gas transport in porous media. The proposed model and the computer code were validated by the Liakopoulos drainage test over a sand column, and the significant effect of the lateral air boundary condition on the draining process of water was discussed. On this basis, the coupled processes of groundwater flow, gas transport and soil deformation in a homogeneous soil slope under a long heavy rainfall were simulated with the proposed three-phase model, and the numerical results revealed the remarkable delaying effects of gas transport and soil deformation on the propagation of the wetting front and the evolution of the slope stability. The results may provide a helpful reference for hazard assessment and control of rainfall-induced landslides.展开更多
We propose a method based on the local breeding of growing modes(LBGM) considering strong local weather characteristics for convection-allowing ensemble forecasting. The impact radius was introduced in the breeding of...We propose a method based on the local breeding of growing modes(LBGM) considering strong local weather characteristics for convection-allowing ensemble forecasting. The impact radius was introduced in the breeding of growing modes to develop the LBGM method. In the local breeding process, the ratio between the root mean square error(RMSE) of local space forecast at each grid point and that of the initial full-field forecast is computed to rescale perturbations. Preliminary evaluations of the method based on a nature run were performed in terms of three aspects: perturbation structure, spread,and the RMSE of the forecast. The experimental results confirm that the local adaptability of perturbation schemes improves after rescaling by the LBGM method. For perturbation physical variables and some near-surface meteorological elements, the LBGM method could increase the spread and reduce the RMSE of forecast,improving the performance of the ensemble forecast system.In addition, different from those existing methods of global orthogonalization approach, this new initial-condition perturbation method takes into full consideration the local characteristics of the convective-scale weather system, thus making convectionallowing ensemble forecast more accurate.展开更多
基金supported by the "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA05100300)the National Basic Research Program of China(2013CB955801)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41175030)
文摘Total Cloud Cover （TCC） over China deter- mined from four climate datasets including the Interna- tional Satellite Cloud Climatology Project （ISCCP）, the 40-year Re-Analysis Project of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ERA-40）, Climate Research Unit Time Series 3.0 （CRU3）, and ground sta- tion datasets are used to show spatial and temporal varia- tion of TCC and their differences. It is demonstrated that the four datasets show similar spatial pattern and seasonal variation. The maximum value is derived from ISCCE TCC value in North China derived from ERA-40 is 50% larger than that from the station dataset; however, the value is 50% less than that in South China. The annual TCC of ISCCP, ERA-40, and ground station datasets shows a decreasing trend during 1984-2002; however, an increasing trend is derived from CRU3. The results of this study imply remarkable differences of TCC derived from surface and satellite observations as well as model simu- lations. The potential effects of these differences on cloud climatology and associated climatic issues should be carefully considered.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 50839004, 51079107) the Program for New Centu-ry Excellent Talents in University (Grant No. NCET-09-0610)
文摘Rain infiltration into a soil slope leads to propagation of the wetting front, transport of air in pores and deformation of the soils, in which coupled processes among the solid, liquid and gas phases are typically involved. Most previous studies on the unsaturated flow and its influence on slope stability were based on the singlephase water flow model (i.e., the Richards Equation) or the waterair two-phase flow model. The effects of gas transport and soil deformation on the movement of groundwater and the evolution of slope stability were less examined with a coupled solid-water-air model. In this paper, a numerical model was established based on the principles of the continuum mechanics and the averaging approach of the mixture theory and implemented in an FEM code for analysis of the coupled deformation, water flow and gas transport in porous media. The proposed model and the computer code were validated by the Liakopoulos drainage test over a sand column, and the significant effect of the lateral air boundary condition on the draining process of water was discussed. On this basis, the coupled processes of groundwater flow, gas transport and soil deformation in a homogeneous soil slope under a long heavy rainfall were simulated with the proposed three-phase model, and the numerical results revealed the remarkable delaying effects of gas transport and soil deformation on the propagation of the wetting front and the evolution of the slope stability. The results may provide a helpful reference for hazard assessment and control of rainfall-induced landslides.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Nanjing Joint Center of Atmospheric Research(Grant Nos.NJCAR2016MS02 and NJCAR2016ZD04)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41205073 and41675007)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC1501800)
文摘We propose a method based on the local breeding of growing modes(LBGM) considering strong local weather characteristics for convection-allowing ensemble forecasting. The impact radius was introduced in the breeding of growing modes to develop the LBGM method. In the local breeding process, the ratio between the root mean square error(RMSE) of local space forecast at each grid point and that of the initial full-field forecast is computed to rescale perturbations. Preliminary evaluations of the method based on a nature run were performed in terms of three aspects: perturbation structure, spread,and the RMSE of the forecast. The experimental results confirm that the local adaptability of perturbation schemes improves after rescaling by the LBGM method. For perturbation physical variables and some near-surface meteorological elements, the LBGM method could increase the spread and reduce the RMSE of forecast,improving the performance of the ensemble forecast system.In addition, different from those existing methods of global orthogonalization approach, this new initial-condition perturbation method takes into full consideration the local characteristics of the convective-scale weather system, thus making convectionallowing ensemble forecast more accurate.
