根据山东省24个风电场2013年全年每15 min的风电输出功率实测数据以及相应的WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)气象预测数据和FNL(Final Operational Global Analysis)再分析资料,分析了区域大规模风电爬坡现象与大尺度天气系统演...根据山东省24个风电场2013年全年每15 min的风电输出功率实测数据以及相应的WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)气象预测数据和FNL(Final Operational Global Analysis)再分析资料,分析了区域大规模风电爬坡现象与大尺度天气系统演变的联系。结果显示,大尺度天气系统,特别是阻塞高压系统,是诱发山东地区大规模风电爬坡的重要因素;爬坡事件的预测应当考虑天气演变的因素。进一步结合旋转门(The Swinging Door,TSD)算法重新讨论了爬坡事件的定义与识别,并在此基础上分析了爬坡事件的特征及其可预报性;并指出风电功率上报、考核制度应当重点考虑爬坡时间段的预测水平,以提高电网运行的稳定性。展开更多
In January 2013,a severe fog and haze event(FHE)of strong intensity,long duration,and extensive coverage occurred in eastern China.The present study investigates meteorological conditions for this FHE by diagnosing bo...In January 2013,a severe fog and haze event(FHE)of strong intensity,long duration,and extensive coverage occurred in eastern China.The present study investigates meteorological conditions for this FHE by diagnosing both its atmospheric background fields and daily evolution in January 2013.The results show that a weak East Asian winter monsoon existed in January2013.Over eastern China,the anomalous southerly winds in the middle and lower troposphere are favorable for more water vapor transported to eastern China.An anomalous high at 500 hPa suppresses convection.The weakened surface winds are favorable for the fog and haze concentrating in eastern China.The reduction of the vertical shear of horizontal winds weakens the synoptic disturbances and vertical mixing of atmosphere.The anomalous inversion in near-surface increases the stability of surface air.All these meteorological background fields in January 2013 were conducive to the maintenance and development of fog and haze over eastern China.The diagnosis of the daily evolution of the FHE shows that the surface wind velocity and the vertical shear of horizontal winds in the middle and lower troposphere can exert dynamic effects on fog and haze.The larger(smaller)they are,the weaker(stronger)the fog and haze are.The thermodynamic effects include stratification instability in middle and lower troposphere and the inversion and dew-point deficit in near-surface.The larger(smaller)the stratification instability and the inversion are,the stronger(weaker)the fog and haze are.Meanwhile,the smaller(larger)the dewpoint deficit is,the stronger(weaker)the fog and haze are.Based on the meteorological factors,a multi-variate linear regression model is set up.The model results show that the dynamic and thermodynamic effects on the variance of the fog and haze evolution are almost the same.The contribution of the meteorological factors to the variance of the daily fog and haze evolution reaches 0.68,which explains more than 2/3 of the variance.展开更多
文摘根据山东省24个风电场2013年全年每15 min的风电输出功率实测数据以及相应的WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)气象预测数据和FNL(Final Operational Global Analysis)再分析资料,分析了区域大规模风电爬坡现象与大尺度天气系统演变的联系。结果显示,大尺度天气系统,特别是阻塞高压系统,是诱发山东地区大规模风电爬坡的重要因素;爬坡事件的预测应当考虑天气演变的因素。进一步结合旋转门(The Swinging Door,TSD)算法重新讨论了爬坡事件的定义与识别,并在此基础上分析了爬坡事件的特征及其可预报性;并指出风电功率上报、考核制度应当重点考虑爬坡时间段的预测水平,以提高电网运行的稳定性。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41221064)the International S&T Cooperation Project othe Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant No.2009-DFA21430)
文摘In January 2013,a severe fog and haze event(FHE)of strong intensity,long duration,and extensive coverage occurred in eastern China.The present study investigates meteorological conditions for this FHE by diagnosing both its atmospheric background fields and daily evolution in January 2013.The results show that a weak East Asian winter monsoon existed in January2013.Over eastern China,the anomalous southerly winds in the middle and lower troposphere are favorable for more water vapor transported to eastern China.An anomalous high at 500 hPa suppresses convection.The weakened surface winds are favorable for the fog and haze concentrating in eastern China.The reduction of the vertical shear of horizontal winds weakens the synoptic disturbances and vertical mixing of atmosphere.The anomalous inversion in near-surface increases the stability of surface air.All these meteorological background fields in January 2013 were conducive to the maintenance and development of fog and haze over eastern China.The diagnosis of the daily evolution of the FHE shows that the surface wind velocity and the vertical shear of horizontal winds in the middle and lower troposphere can exert dynamic effects on fog and haze.The larger(smaller)they are,the weaker(stronger)the fog and haze are.The thermodynamic effects include stratification instability in middle and lower troposphere and the inversion and dew-point deficit in near-surface.The larger(smaller)the stratification instability and the inversion are,the stronger(weaker)the fog and haze are.Meanwhile,the smaller(larger)the dewpoint deficit is,the stronger(weaker)the fog and haze are.Based on the meteorological factors,a multi-variate linear regression model is set up.The model results show that the dynamic and thermodynamic effects on the variance of the fog and haze evolution are almost the same.The contribution of the meteorological factors to the variance of the daily fog and haze evolution reaches 0.68,which explains more than 2/3 of the variance.
