成都经济区天降水与下渗水元素地球化学特征及土壤元素输入输出通量

论文研究了成都经济区天降水和下渗水中元素含量、在农田耕层中的输入输出通量及其影响因素。研究表明，研究区雨水中含有大量SO4^2-、NO3^-等酸性物质，雨水中SO4^2-＞NO3^-＞Cl^-。雨水中Ca^2＋和NH4^＋含量最高，且NH4^＋＞Ca^2＋＞K^＋＞Na^＋〉Mg^2＋雨水的pH与阴、阳离子摩尔浓度差值具有显著相关性。下渗水中以Ca抖为主要阳离子，且Ca^2＋＞Na^＋＞Mg^2＋＞K^＋＞NH4^＋；HCO3^-为主要阴离子，且HCO3^-＞NO3^-＞SO4^2-＞Cl^-＞F^-，下渗水pH与阳、阴离子摩尔浓度差值具有显著相关性。不同地区雨水中Pb＞As＞Cd＞Se＞Hg，下渗水中Pb＞As＞Se＞Cd＞Hg，因此，Cd、Pb、Se和Hg等元素累积在耕层中，而As则被下渗水携带迁移出耕层进入地下水。由降雨输入土壤中的Cd通量均大于下渗水输出Cd的通量，局部地区As下渗通量高于雨水输入通量的5．45～13．16倍。土壤中元素的下渗比与土壤质地、pH有关。

南海-太平洋热带气旋形成个数对调制广东汛期降水季节内变化的环流系统对比分析

利用上海台风所组织整编的《台风年鉴》(1949—2005年)、NCEP逐日再分析资料和中国逐日降水资料,分析南海-西太平洋热带气旋形成个数多年(以下简称多年)、形成个数少年(以下简称少年)对广东30～60天振荡降水的影响。考虑到其周期振荡的非规则性,相应降水9个位相(即第1、3、5、7和9位相分别对应降水的最低值、正转折点(由负转为正)、最高值、负转折点(由正转负)和最低值)分别对850 hPa、200 hPa风场和850 hPa的动能、涡度、水汽通量输送以及Hadley环流和Walker环流场进行合成分析。结果表明,在多年,具有较大动能的阿拉伯海-孟加拉湾地区环流东移与南海-西太平洋的西北-东南走向的异常气旋-反气旋对西移的交汇,通过在北半球上升、南半球下沉的异常闭合经圈环流和水汽输送,把西边和南边海洋暖湿气流源源不断输送到广东,使其30～60天振荡降水增加;而在少年,广东地区30～60天振荡降水与阿拉伯海-孟加拉湾地区环流联系不强,主要受南海-西太平洋的东北-西南走向的异常气旋反气旋对的影响,通过北半球低纬增强的异常上升支的局地作用和水汽输送,把南边海洋暖湿气流源源不断输送到广东,使其30～60天振荡降水增加。由于109～119°E,10～20°N区域异常的动能、西风、东风切变、垂直速度和水汽输送均比少年强,从而使得广东30～60天振荡降水在多年比少年强。

Discussion of Fenlong Cultivation Supporting Food and Environment Safety and Broadening Survival and Development Space

A new high-efficiency farming method of global significance, Fenlong tech- nique capable of making soil fertile, increasing yield and improving ecological envi- ronment was introduced; and the Fenlong technique could deeply plough and scarify soil with a depth up to 30-50 cm, which is deeper than the depth of tractor tillage, solving the problem of difficulties in deeply ploughing and scarifying soil and keeping soil loose for muttiple seasons. The application to 20 crops in 18 provinces proved that yield could be increased by 10%-30% without increase in chemical fertilizer, quality could be improved by more than 5%, and water storage could be increased by 100%; yield could be increased for multiple seasons sustainably, and the yield of dry-land crops increased by 32.57%-38.2% from the second year to the fourth year; the net benefits of rice increased by 21.82% averagely from the first season to the sixth season; and the usage amount of chemical fertilizer decreased by 0.35-4.29 kg per 100 kg produced grain compared with conventional tillage, with an decrease amplitude of 10.81%-30.99%. It was discussed that the Fenlong technique could maximize friendly permanently-sustainable unitization of ＂natural resources＂ including soil nutrients, water, oxygen and light energy, and has good development potential in multiple fields. It was put forward that if it is popularized in 0.67x108 hm2, pro- ductivity of farmland could be newly increased by 0.1-0.13×10^8 hm2, 5.0 ×10^6 t of chemical fertilizer could be saved, the＇ storage of agricultural water could be in- creased by 3.0×10^10 m3, and increased food could feed 2,0-3.0×10^8 people.

浙江梅汛期雨涝灾害问题的讨论

本文通过解放40多年来的气候资料、水文资料和雨涝灾害资料的分析比较,讨论了以日降水量≥100.00mm,连续3天降水量≥150.00mm,连续5天降水量≥200.00mm(浙北平原各降低50mm)作为衡量各地雨涝灾害指标.就省一级雨涝灾害而言,以同一水系的某一区域达到雨涝灾害指标的测站在60%以上,作为区域性雨涝,而全省八大水系其中有5条水系同时达到区域性雨涝,则作为全省性雨涝.在此同时,还讨论了我省解放以来雨涝灾害的时空分布,其目的为开展气候监测、天气预报和抗灾减灾服务提供一定的依据.

增强苹果树抗旱性的方法

增强苹果树抗旱性的方法近几年来，山区发展苹果树很多，但由于天降水较少，又不具备人工灌溉条件，果树生长受到严重影响。如何增强果树的抗旱性？陕西省礼泉县建陵乡农技站张积显的办法：一是在大旱的情况下，不要给苹果树多施氮肥，可给树冠喷１－３次０．２％－０．３...

特殊的奖励

特殊的奖励４月中旬的一天，辽西大地春风送爽。凌源市国税局沟门子税务所专管员杨景隆、助征员张国雨分别收到了由市局寄来的２００元汇款单。这是怎么回事？原来这中间还有段故事呢。１９９６年７、８月间，凌源市南部乡镇遭受了百年未遇的特大水灾，最多一天降水量达到...

THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE PRECEDING WINTER MJO ACTIVITIES AND THE SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVER BASIN OF CHINA

The first two series(RMM1 and RMM2) of RMM Index(all-Season Real-time Multivariate MJO Index) are computed to obtain the interannual variation of the preceding winter(preceding December to current February) MJO strength,according to which active(or inactive) years of preceding winter MJO are divided.By utilizing the data provided by NCEP/NCAR,CMAP and China's 160 stations from 1979 to 2008,we studied the preceding winter MJO strength and discovered that the summer precipitation in the basin are of significantly negative correlation,i.e.when the preceding winter MJO is relatively active,the summer precipitation in the basin decreases,and vise verse.We also analyzed the causes.When the preceding winter MJO is relatively active,its release of potential heat facilities Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) to strengthen and locate northward in winter and propagate northeastward.This abnormal situation lasts from winter to summer.In mid-May,ITCZ jumps northward to the South China Sea,the western Pacific subtropical high withdraws eastward,and the South China Sea summer monsoon sets off and strengthens.In summer,ITCZ propagates to South China Sea-subtropical western Pacific,the zonal circulation of subtropical Pacific strengthens,and a local meridional circulation of the South China Sea to the basin area forms,giving rise to the East Asia Pacific teleconnection wave-train.An East Asian monsoon trough and the Meiyu front show opposite features from south to north,the East Asian summer monsoon strengthens and advances northward.As a result,the summer monsoon is weakened as the basin is controlled by the subtropical high continually,with less rain in summer.On the contrary,when the preceding winter MJO is inactive,ITCZ weakens and is located southward,the subtropical high is located southward in summer,and the basin is in a region of ascending airflow with prevailing southwest wind.The East Asian monsoon trough and EASM weaken so that summer monsoon is reduced in the basin where precipitation increases.

Intensified East Asian summer monsoon and associated precipitation mode shift under the 1.5 ℃ global warming target

In this study, the East Asian summer climate changes under the 1.5 ℃ global warming （1.5 GW） target in 30 simulations derived from 15 coupled models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 （CMIP5） are examined. Compared with the current summer climate （1975-2005）, both surface air temperature and precipitation increase significantly over the East Asian continent during the 1.5 GW period （average period 2021-2051）. In northeastern China this is particularly pronounced with regional averaged precipitation increases of more than 7.2%, which is greater than that for the whole East Asian continent （approximately 4.2%）. Due to stronger enhancement of precipitation north of 40°N, the leading empirical orthogonal function （EOF） mode of summer precipitation over the East Asian continent changes from tripolar-like mode to dipole mode. As there is stronger surface warming over the East Asian continent than that over surrounding ocean, the land-sea thermal contrast is enhanced during the 1.5 GW period. As a result, the monsoon circulation in the lower troposphere is significantly strengthened, which causes the increased summer precipitation over the East Asian continent. In addition, larger interannual variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon circulation and associated precipitation are also suggested for the 1.5 GW period.

Analysis of Heavy Rainstorm in Dongting Lake on July 4, 2014

This paper analyzes the heavy rainstorm in northeast Dongting Lake on June 4, 2014. Results indicate the weather situation, radar echo and the satellite imagery of the strong precipitation. Besides, the warm and wet water vapor in Dongting Lake also contributes to this heavy rainstorm. As the astronomical precipitation cycle in this precipitation is outstanding, it is essential to pay attention to and use the astronomical precipitation forecast method.

Photodegradation of Methylene Blue in Natural Seawater

This paper reports the photochemical degradation of Methylene Blue(MB)in natural seawater(NSW).The photode-gradation reaction conformed to the first-order reaction kinetics with the rate constant 0.0158 min-1.MB was photochemically de-gradated faster under high-pressure mercury lamp(HPML)than under sunlight.When MB was in lower concentrations,salinitycould inhibit the photoreaction whereas MB in higher concentration,salinity could accelerate the photoreaction.Humid acid couldalso inhibit the photoreactions.Toxicity tests with marine phytoplankton Skeletonema costatum(Sk)and Heterosigma akashiwo Hada(Ha)showed decreased acute toxicity after photodegradation.

Assessment of Snow Cover Vulnerability over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

By using daily air temperature and precipitation data, and the weather phenomena data of daily snowfall from 98 meteorological stations over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau （QTP）, this paper performs an ＂at-risk＂ evaluation on snowfall and accumulated snow over the QTP under current climate situation and future climate warming condition. When rainfall, snowfall, or accumulated snow weather phenomena occur, critical values are determined based on dally air temperature and precipitation for current climate conditions. Air temperature of 0 ℃ is defined as the critical value of temperature for rainfall or snowfall, while 0 ℃ air temperature and 4.0 mm （autumn） or 3.0 mm （spring） snowfall amounts are defined as the critical values for accumulated snowfall. Analyses based on the above critical values disclose that under current climate condition, stations with ＂at-risk＂ accumulated snow account for 33% and 36% of all stations, and the ＂at-risk＂ snowfall stations reach 78% and 81% in autumn and spring, respectively. Spatially, most stations with ＂at-risk＂ accumulated snow are located on the southern and eastern edge of the QTP, and stations with ＂at-risk＂ snowfall are also apparent at the northern edge. If the air temperature increases by 2.5 ℃ in 2050, only the snowfall at a few ＂at-risk＂ snowfall stations will transform into rainfall, while most ＂at-risk＂ accumulated snow stations will face the problem that snowfall is hardly accumulated. Additionally, most stations will become ＂at-risk＂ accumulated snow stations, indicating that both the snow depth and the snow cover duration will decline in most areas of the QTP, including a delay of the start date and an advancing of the end date of snow cover.

A multi-state weather generator for daily precipitation for the Torne River basin, northern Sweden/western Finland

This paper describes a new weather generator e the 10-state empirical model e that combines a 10-state, first-order Markov chain with a non-parametric precipitation amounts model. Using a doubly-stochastic transition-matrix results in a weather generator for which the overall precipitation distribution(including both wet and dry days) and the temporal-correlation can be modified independently for climate change studies. This paper assesses the ability of the 10-state empirical model to simulate daily area-average precipitation in the Torne River catchment in northern Sweden/western Finland in the context of 3 other models: a 10-state model with a parametric(Gamma) amounts model; a wet/dry chain with the empirical amounts model; and a wet/dry chain with the parametric amounts model. The ability to accurately simulate the distribution of multi-day precipitation in the catchment is the primary consideration.Results showed that the 10-state empirical model represented accumulated 2- to 14-day precipitation most realistically. Further, the distribution of precipitation on wet days in the catchment is related to the placement of a wet day within a wet-spell, and the 10-state models represented this realistically, while the wet/dry models did not. Although all four models accurately reproduced the annual and monthly averages in the training data, all models underestimated inter-annual and inter-seasonal variance. Even so, the 10-state empirical model performed best.We conclude that the multi-state model is a promising candidate for hydrological applications, as it simulates multi-day precipitation well, but that further development is required to improve the simulation of interannual variation.

Effect of lake surface temperature on the summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau

There are numerous lakes on the Tibetan Plateau(TP),but the role of lake temperature in precipitation over the TP remains unclear.Here the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model was used to detect the impact of lakes on summer rainfall.Three test cases were used to evaluate the effect of lakes surface temperature(LSTs) on precipitation variability.The three cases used different methods to determine initial LSTs,including using sea surface temperature data(SST),the WRF inland water module(avg_tsfc),and a lake model.Results show that when precipitation was stimulated over the TP,LSTs cannot be initialized using SST,which led to large discrepancies of precipitation.Compared with the simulations,the simulated precipitation were improved obviously with LSTs using avg_tsfc,indicating that LSTs have an considerable influence on determining precipitation over the TP.Due to a lack of observational data,the lake scheme does not improve on rainfall simulation,but does effectively simulate precipitation pattern over lakes,such as rainfall over the lakes was dominated by convection during the nighttime.Though the simulated precipitation using SST to initialize LSTs caused largediscrepancies,it suggested that precipitation increase especially convective precipitation with increase in LSTs,which confirmed that the moisture from lakes cannot be neglected over the TP.Generally,it was necessary to monitor the LSTs for accurate weather and climate prediction over the TP.

Response of extreme precipitation to increasing extratropical cyclonic vortex frequency

Since the 2000 s,extratropical extremes have been more frequent,which are closely related to anomalies of planetary-scale and synoptic-scale systems.This study focuses on a key synoptic system,the extratropical cyclonic vortex(ECV)over land,to investigate its relations with extreme precipitation.It was found that ECVs have been more active post-2000,which has induced more extreme precipitation,and such variation is projected to persist along with increasing temperature within 1.5℃of global warming.An enhanced quasi-stationary vortex(QSV)primarily contributes to the ECV,rather than inactive synoptic-scale transient eddies(STEs).Inactive STEs respond to a decline in baroclinicity due to the tendency of the homogeneous temperature gradient.However,such conditions are helpful to widening the westerly jet belt,favoring strong dynamic processes of quasi-resonant amplification and interaction of STEs with the quasi-stationary wave,and the result favors an increasing frequency and persistence of QSVs,contributing to extreme precipitation.

ON STRONG SIGNALS OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN EARLY RAINING SEASON OF GUANGDONG AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF PREDICTION

Reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR are used to systematically study preceding signals of monthly precipitation anomalies in the early raining season of Guangdong province, from the viewpoints of 500-hPa geopotential height field, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) field, sea surface temperature (SST) and fourteen indexes of general circulation depicting atmosphere activity at high, middle and low latitutes. Being multiple tools of information, a number of conceptual models are formulated that are useful for prediction of the magnitude of monthly precipitation (drought, flood and normal conditionss).

Simulation of Climate Change Scenarios for Phu Luong Watershed in Northern Viet Nam

The purpose of this paper is to apply ＂LARS-WG （Long Ashton Research Station--Weather Generator）＂ model to simulate the climate change scenarios for Phu Luong watershed in northem Viet Nam. Results indicated that LARS-WG adequately predicted precipitation and temperature with R2 = 0.80 and 0.73, respectively. Likewise, p-value of F test = 0.062 and p-value of t test = 0.885 for precipitation, meanwhile, for temperature are 0.092 and 0.564 at 0.05 level of significance, respectively. Moreover, results also stated that mean annual precipitation increases 1.62%, 2.17% and 3.96% and mean annual temperature increases 0.6 ℃, 0.8 ℃ and 1.05 ℃ in 2020, 2030 and 2040, respectively, with respect to those from baseline periods. This study also showed that LARS-WG model was used successfully for Viet Nam＇s watershed conditions.

Annual precipitation gray forecast in disaster year of Chedaren debris flow

The Chedaren ravine belongs to high-prone areas of debris flow in Jilin Province, which threaten the local people＇ s life and security seriously. The authors used the residual correction theory to amend the GM （ 1, 1 ） model and forecast annual precipitation in disaster year of the Chedaren ravine ; it provides scientific foundation for early warning of debris flow disaster in the rainy season based on weather forecast. The prediction resuits show that annual precipitation is 724.7 mm in 2009 ; the region will probably occur large-scale debris flow during the rainy season.

顾及双差残差反演GPS信号方向的斜路径水汽含量

给出了顾及GPS双差残差反演斜路径水汽SWV的解算流程;然后详细给出了双差残差到非差残差的转化算法,并对算法进行了改进;最后利用并址的GPS和WVR实测数据对反演SWV算法进行了验证,结果证实改进的反演算法能以优于4 mm精度近实时估算SWV值,与目前国际研究精度在同一量级。