Discontinuous and long-duration thunderstorm weather, which occurred at Guanghan in Sichuan Province, was analyzed and predicted using structural conversion of irregular information in phase-space from self-recording ...Discontinuous and long-duration thunderstorm weather, which occurred at Guanghan in Sichuan Province, was analyzed and predicted using structural conversion of irregular information in phase-space from self-recording “time sequence” records for predicting rain areas, as described in the “Non Destructive Information” method proposed by Professor OuYang Shoucheng. The results show that this method can reveal important changes of weather as well as, by using irregular self-recording information recorded every ten minutes, predict local thunderstorms with durations of only half an hour, and even predict intense convections 12 hours in advance. This is significant for civil and military aviation. It shows the necessity of full utilization of information from automatic weather stations and the necessity of improvements in recording modes in current automatic stations.展开更多
With the pros and cons of the traditional optimization and probability pairing methods thoroughly considered, an improved optimal pairing window probability technique is developed using a dynamic relationship between ...With the pros and cons of the traditional optimization and probability pairing methods thoroughly considered, an improved optimal pairing window probability technique is developed using a dynamic relationship between the base reflectivity Z observed by radar and real time precipitation I by rain gauge. Then, the Doppler radar observations of base reflectivity for typhoons Haitang and Matsa in Wenzhou are employed to establish various Z-I relationships, which are subsequently used to estimate hourly precipitation of the two typhoons. Such estimations are calibrated by variational techniques. The results show that there exist significant differences in the Z-I relationships for the typhoons, leading to different typhoon precipitation efficiencies. The typhoon precipitation estimated by applying radar base reflectivity is capable of exhibiting clearly the spiral rain belts and mesoscale cells, and well matches the observed rainfall. Error statistical analyses indicate that the estimated typhoon precipitation is better with variational calibration than the one without. The variational calibration technique is able to maintain the characteristics of the distribution of radar-estimated typhoon precipitation, and to significantly reduce the error of the estimated precipitation in comparison with the observed rainfall.展开更多
基金The project is funded by Youth Scientific Research Foundation of CAFUC (Q2003-23).
文摘Discontinuous and long-duration thunderstorm weather, which occurred at Guanghan in Sichuan Province, was analyzed and predicted using structural conversion of irregular information in phase-space from self-recording “time sequence” records for predicting rain areas, as described in the “Non Destructive Information” method proposed by Professor OuYang Shoucheng. The results show that this method can reveal important changes of weather as well as, by using irregular self-recording information recorded every ten minutes, predict local thunderstorms with durations of only half an hour, and even predict intense convections 12 hours in advance. This is significant for civil and military aviation. It shows the necessity of full utilization of information from automatic weather stations and the necessity of improvements in recording modes in current automatic stations.
基金Key Project of Social Development in Zhejiang Province (2006C13025, 2007C13G1610002)
文摘With the pros and cons of the traditional optimization and probability pairing methods thoroughly considered, an improved optimal pairing window probability technique is developed using a dynamic relationship between the base reflectivity Z observed by radar and real time precipitation I by rain gauge. Then, the Doppler radar observations of base reflectivity for typhoons Haitang and Matsa in Wenzhou are employed to establish various Z-I relationships, which are subsequently used to estimate hourly precipitation of the two typhoons. Such estimations are calibrated by variational techniques. The results show that there exist significant differences in the Z-I relationships for the typhoons, leading to different typhoon precipitation efficiencies. The typhoon precipitation estimated by applying radar base reflectivity is capable of exhibiting clearly the spiral rain belts and mesoscale cells, and well matches the observed rainfall. Error statistical analyses indicate that the estimated typhoon precipitation is better with variational calibration than the one without. The variational calibration technique is able to maintain the characteristics of the distribution of radar-estimated typhoon precipitation, and to significantly reduce the error of the estimated precipitation in comparison with the observed rainfall.
