Microsatellite DNA technique was used to detect the genetic variation between five hatchery populations of the Pacific oyster from China and two wild populations from Japan. Seven microsatellite loci screened in this ...Microsatellite DNA technique was used to detect the genetic variation between five hatchery populations of the Pacific oyster from China and two wild populations from Japan. Seven microsatellite loci screened in this study showed high polymorphism in both hatchery and wild populations, as observed in an average number of allele per locus (19.1-29.9) and average expected heterozygosity (0.916-0.958). No significant difference in average allelic richness or expected heterozygosity was observed between Chinese hatchery populations and Japanese wild populations. Pairwise Fsr values and heterogeneity tests of allele frequencies showed significant genetic differentiation between all populations. According to the neighbor-joining tree constructed on the basis of the Dc distance, the seven populations fell into three groups showing a clear division between hatchery and wild populations, and between the northern and southern hatchery populations. Assignment tests correctry assigned high percentages (97%-100%) of individuals to their original populations and demonstrated the feasibility of microsatellite analysis for discrimination between populations. The information obtained in this study is useful for designing suitable management guidelines and selective breeding programs for the Pacific oyster in China.展开更多
By using the derivative method, we obtained the same result with that of the previous work of Chen et al. in 2006. Different from the integral form, the derivative form of the surface expression published in this pape...By using the derivative method, we obtained the same result with that of the previous work of Chen et al. in 2006. Different from the integral form, the derivative form of the surface expression published in this paper is derived from differential equation and based on the theory of non-imaging focusing heliostat proposed by Chen et al. in 2001. The comparison of the derivative form of fixed aberration correction surface has been made with that of integral form surface as well as that of spherical surface in concentrating the solar ray.展开更多
Based on the Zebiak-Cane model, the timedependent nonlinear forcing singular vector (NFSV)-type tendency errors with components of 4 and 12 (denoted by NFSV-4 and NFSV-12) are calculated for predetermined El Nifio...Based on the Zebiak-Cane model, the timedependent nonlinear forcing singular vector (NFSV)-type tendency errors with components of 4 and 12 (denoted by NFSV-4 and NFSV-12) are calculated for predetermined El Nifio events and compared with the constant NFSV (denoted by NFSV-1) from their patterns and resultant prediction errors. Specifically, NFSV-1 has a zonal dipolar sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific and positive anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pa- cific. Although the first few components in NFSV-4 and NFSV-12 present patterns similar to NFSV-1, they tend to extend their dipoles farther westward; meanwhile, the positive anomalies gradually cover much smaller regions with the lag times. In addition, the authors calculate the predic- tion errors caused by the three kinds of NFSVs, and the results indicate that the prediction error induced by NFSV-12 is the largest, followed by the NFSV-4. However, when compared with the prediction errors caused by random tendency errors, the NFSVs generate significantly larger prediction errors. It is therefore shown that the spatial structure of tendency errors is important for producing large prediction errors. Furthermore, in exploring the tendency errors that cause the largest prediction error for E1 Nifio events, the timedependent NFSV should be evaluated.展开更多
The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been desi...The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been designed in the above regions and the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) techniques are utilized to examine which approach can locate more appropriate regions for typhoon adaptive observations. The results show that, in general, the majority of the probes in the sensitive regions of CNOPs can reduce more forecast error variance than the probes in the sensitive regions of FSV. This implies that adaptive observations in the sensitive regions of CNOPs are more effective than in the sensitive regions of FSV. Furthermore, the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by the best probe identified by CNOPs is twice the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by FSV. This implies that dropping sondes, which is the best probe identified by CNOPs, can improve the forecast more than the best probe identified by FSV. These results indicate that the sensitive regions identified by CNOPs are more appropriate for adaptive observations than those identified by FSV.展开更多
The authors investigate the relationship between bias in simulated sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific cold tongue during the boreal spring as simulated by an oceanic general circulation ...The authors investigate the relationship between bias in simulated sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific cold tongue during the boreal spring as simulated by an oceanic general circulation model (OGCM) and minimal wind mixing (MWM) at the surface. The cold bias of simulated SST is the greatest during the boreal spring, at approximately 3℃. A sensi- tivity experiment reducing MWM by one order of magnitude greatly alleviates cold biases, especially in March-April. The decrease in bias is primarily due to weakened vertical mixing, which preserves heat in the uppermost layer and results in warmer simulated SST. The reduction in vertical mixing also leads to a weak westward current in the upper layer, which further contributes to SST warming. These findings imply that there are large uncertainties about simple model parameters such as MWM at the oceanic surface.展开更多
Due to the nature of ultra-short-acting opioid remifentanil of high time-varying,complex compartment model and low-accuracy of plasma concentration prediction,the traditional estimation method of population pharmacoki...Due to the nature of ultra-short-acting opioid remifentanil of high time-varying,complex compartment model and low-accuracy of plasma concentration prediction,the traditional estimation method of population pharmacokinetics parameters,nonlinear mixed effects model(NONMEM),has the abuses of tedious work and plenty of man-made jamming factors.The Elman feedback neural network was built.The relationships between the patients’plasma concentration of remifentanil and time,patient’age,gender,lean body mass,height,body surface area,sampling time,total dose,and injection rate through network training were obtained to predict the plasma concentration of remifentanil,and after that,it was compared with the results of NONMEM algorithm.In conclusion,the average error of Elman network is 6.34%,while that of NONMEM is 18.99%.The absolute average error of Elman network is 27.07%,while that of NONMEM is 38.09%.The experimental results indicate that Elman neural network could predict the plasma concentration of remifentanil rapidly and stably,with high accuracy and low error.For the characteristics of simple principle and fast computing speed,this method is suitable to data analysis of short-acting anesthesia drug population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamics.展开更多
A new nonlinear transverse-torsional coupled model with backlash and bearing clearance was proposed for planetary gear set. Meanwhile, sun gear and planet's eccentricity errors, static transmission error, and time...A new nonlinear transverse-torsional coupled model with backlash and bearing clearance was proposed for planetary gear set. Meanwhile, sun gear and planet's eccentricity errors, static transmission error, and time-varying meshing stiffness were taken into consideration. The differential governing equations of motion were solved by employing variable step-size Rung-Kutta numerical integration method. The behavior of dynamic load sharing characteristics affected by the system parameters including input rate, sun gear's supporting stiffness and eccentricity error, planet's eccentricity error, sun gear's bearing clearance, backlashes of sun-planet and planet-ring meshes were investigated qualitatively and systematically. Some theoretical results are summarized at last which extend the current understanding of the dynamic load sharing behavior of planet gear train, enrich the related literature and provide references for the design of planetary gear train.展开更多
Validated satellite-derived sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are widely used for climate monitoring and ocean data assimilation systems. In this study, the Fengyun-3A (FY-3A) SST experimental product is evaluated using...Validated satellite-derived sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are widely used for climate monitoring and ocean data assimilation systems. In this study, the Fengyun-3A (FY-3A) SST experimental product is evaluated using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-merged and in situ SSTs. A comparison of AVHRR-merged SSTs reveals a negative bias of more than 2K in FY-3A SSTs in most of the tropical Pacific and low-latitude Indian and Atlantic Oceans. The error variance of FY-3A SSTs is estimated using three-way error analysis. FY-3A SSTs show regional error variance in global oceans with a maximum error variance of 2.2 K in the Pacific Ocean. In addition, a significant seasonal variation of error variance is present in FY-3A SSTs, which indicates that the quality of FY-3A SST could be improved by adjusting the parameters in the SST retrieval algorithm and by applying regional and seasonal algorithms, particularly in key areas such as the tropical Pacific Ocean. An objective analysis method is used to merge FY-3A SSTs with the drifter buoy data. The errors of FY-3A SSTs are decreased to-0.45K comparing with SST observations from GTSPP.展开更多
Using a coccolith weight analytic software(Particle Analyser), we analyze most abundant coccolith species in a sediment core from the central Western Pacific Warm Pool(WPWP) and calculate coccolith size and weight var...Using a coccolith weight analytic software(Particle Analyser), we analyze most abundant coccolith species in a sediment core from the central Western Pacific Warm Pool(WPWP) and calculate coccolith size and weight variations over the last 200 ka. These variations are compared with the trends of sea surface temperature(SST), primary productivity(PP), sea surface salinity(SSS), and insolation. Our results demonstrate that the size and weight of the coccoliths varied in response to variations of these factors, and their average total weight is primarily related to the relative abundance of the dominant species GEO(Gephyrocapsa oceanica). The variation in weight of EMI(Emiliania huxleyi) and GEE(Gephyrocapsa ericsonii) are mainly influenced by nutrients, and the variation of GEM(G. muellerae conformis) and GEO(G. oceanica) weight are mainly influenced by SST. For all of the taxa weight, PP and SST present apparent precession or semi-precession cycles, we consider that the mono-coccolith weight of the Equatorial Western Pacific is primarily affected by precession drived thermocline and nutricline variation.展开更多
Part-time farming has been increasing steadily in China. It is currently the largest segment among all the farm sectors in the country. Based on rural household survey data in Taipusi County as a case site ofecologica...Part-time farming has been increasing steadily in China. It is currently the largest segment among all the farm sectors in the country. Based on rural household survey data in Taipusi County as a case site ofecologically-vulnerable areas in North China, we firstly classify farm households into four types according to the proportion of non-farm income in total income, and then compare their agricultural land use patterns to empirically examine the impacts of part-time farming on agricultural land use in this area. The results suggest that non-farming households rent out all their land and give up farming, and this satisfies the expectation of other households to expand land area. The crop planting structure was not significantly different among the households, which reflected the farmers' will to pursuit labor productivity. Part-time farming households invest more capital and materials than full-time faming households because the income derived from non-farm employment relaxes the financial constraint of households. However, the amount of labor input of part-time farming households tends to be less, and farming practices are dominated by the elderly, female and laborers withrelative low educations.Yields of crops and the benefit of agricultural land use incline to reduce, which suggest that the potential of land use productivity is more elastic to labor inputs than capital inputs in the study area.展开更多
A higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction,so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity.Instead of using geomagnetic activity dur...A higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction,so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity.Instead of using geomagnetic activity during the descending phase of the solar cycle,the minimum annual aa index (aa min) is used as an indicator for the ensuing maximum amplitude (R m) of the sunspot cycle.A four-cycle periodicity is roughly shown in the correlation between R m and aa min.The widely accepted Ohl's precursor prediction method often fails due to the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty.An accurate prediction depends on the positive variation of the correlation rather than a higher correlation.Previous experiences by using this method indicate that a prediction for the next cycle,R m (24)=80 ± 17,is likely to fail,implying that the sunspot maximum of Cycle 24 may be either smaller than 63 or greater than 97.展开更多
We design a compact terahertz(THz) polarization beam splitter. Both plane wave expansion method and finite-difference time-domain method are used to calculate and analyze the characteristics of the proposed device. Th...We design a compact terahertz(THz) polarization beam splitter. Both plane wave expansion method and finite-difference time-domain method are used to calculate and analyze the characteristics of the proposed device. The designed polarization beam splitter can split TE-polarized and TM-polarized THz waves into different propagation directions. The simulation results show that the extinction ratios are larger than 18.36 dB for TE polarization and 13.35 dB for TM polarization in the frequency range from 1.86 THz to 1.91 THz, respectively. The designed polarization beam splitter has the advantages of small size and compact structure with a total size of 4.825 mm×0.400 mm.展开更多
Using predictions for the sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) generated by an intermediate coupled model(ICM)ensemble prediction system(EPS), we first explore the "spring predictability barrier"(SPB) probl...Using predictions for the sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) generated by an intermediate coupled model(ICM)ensemble prediction system(EPS), we first explore the "spring predictability barrier"(SPB) problem for the 2015/16 strong El Nio event from the perspective of error growth. By analyzing the growth tendency of the prediction errors for ensemble forecast members, we conclude that the prediction errors for the 2015/16 El Nio event tended to show a distinct season-dependent evolution, with prominent growth in spring and/or the beginning of the summer. This finding indicates that the predictions for the 2015/16 El Nio occurred a significant SPB phenomenon. We show that the SPB occurred in the 2015/16 El Nio predictions did not arise because of the uncertainties in the initial conditions but because of model errors. As such, the mean of ensemble forecast members filtered the effect of model errors and weakened the effect of the SPB, ultimately reducing the prediction errors for the 2015/16 El Nio event. By investigating the model errors represented by the tendency errors for the SSTA component,we demonstrate the prominent features of the tendency errors that often cause an SPB for the 2015/16 El Nio event and explain why the 2015/16 El Nio was under-predicted by the ICM EPS. Moreover, we reveal the typical feature of the tendency errors that cause not only a significant SPB but also an aggressively large prediction error. The feature is that the tendency errors present a zonal dipolar pattern with the west poles of positive anomalies in the equatorial western Pacific and the east poles of negative anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific. This tendency error bears great similarities with that of the most sensitive nonlinear forcing singular vector(NFSV)-tendency errors reported by Duan et al. and demonstrates the existence of an NFSV tendency error in realistic predictions. For other strong El Nio events, such as those that occurred in 1982/83 and 1997/98, we obtain the tendency errors of the NFSV structure, which cause a significant SPB and yield a much larger prediction error. These results suggest that the forecast skill of the ICM EPS for strong El Nio events could be greatly enhanced by using the NFSV-like tendency error to correct the model.展开更多
基金the Ministry of Education (No. NCET-04-0640)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 30571442).
文摘Microsatellite DNA technique was used to detect the genetic variation between five hatchery populations of the Pacific oyster from China and two wild populations from Japan. Seven microsatellite loci screened in this study showed high polymorphism in both hatchery and wild populations, as observed in an average number of allele per locus (19.1-29.9) and average expected heterozygosity (0.916-0.958). No significant difference in average allelic richness or expected heterozygosity was observed between Chinese hatchery populations and Japanese wild populations. Pairwise Fsr values and heterogeneity tests of allele frequencies showed significant genetic differentiation between all populations. According to the neighbor-joining tree constructed on the basis of the Dc distance, the seven populations fell into three groups showing a clear division between hatchery and wild populations, and between the northern and southern hatchery populations. Assignment tests correctry assigned high percentages (97%-100%) of individuals to their original populations and demonstrated the feasibility of microsatellite analysis for discrimination between populations. The information obtained in this study is useful for designing suitable management guidelines and selective breeding programs for the Pacific oyster in China.
文摘By using the derivative method, we obtained the same result with that of the previous work of Chen et al. in 2006. Different from the integral form, the derivative form of the surface expression published in this paper is derived from differential equation and based on the theory of non-imaging focusing heliostat proposed by Chen et al. in 2001. The comparison of the derivative form of fixed aberration correction surface has been made with that of integral form surface as well as that of spherical surface in concentrating the solar ray.
基金sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955202)the National Public Benefit (Meteorology) Research Foundation of China (Grant No. GYHY201306018)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41176013 and 41230420)
文摘Based on the Zebiak-Cane model, the timedependent nonlinear forcing singular vector (NFSV)-type tendency errors with components of 4 and 12 (denoted by NFSV-4 and NFSV-12) are calculated for predetermined El Nifio events and compared with the constant NFSV (denoted by NFSV-1) from their patterns and resultant prediction errors. Specifically, NFSV-1 has a zonal dipolar sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific and positive anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pa- cific. Although the first few components in NFSV-4 and NFSV-12 present patterns similar to NFSV-1, they tend to extend their dipoles farther westward; meanwhile, the positive anomalies gradually cover much smaller regions with the lag times. In addition, the authors calculate the predic- tion errors caused by the three kinds of NFSVs, and the results indicate that the prediction error induced by NFSV-12 is the largest, followed by the NFSV-4. However, when compared with the prediction errors caused by random tendency errors, the NFSVs generate significantly larger prediction errors. It is therefore shown that the spatial structure of tendency errors is important for producing large prediction errors. Furthermore, in exploring the tendency errors that cause the largest prediction error for E1 Nifio events, the timedependent NFSV should be evaluated.
基金jointly sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40830955 and 40821092)the China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. GYHY200906009)
文摘The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been designed in the above regions and the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) techniques are utilized to examine which approach can locate more appropriate regions for typhoon adaptive observations. The results show that, in general, the majority of the probes in the sensitive regions of CNOPs can reduce more forecast error variance than the probes in the sensitive regions of FSV. This implies that adaptive observations in the sensitive regions of CNOPs are more effective than in the sensitive regions of FSV. Furthermore, the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by the best probe identified by CNOPs is twice the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by FSV. This implies that dropping sondes, which is the best probe identified by CNOPs, can improve the forecast more than the best probe identified by FSV. These results indicate that the sensitive regions identified by CNOPs are more appropriate for adaptive observations than those identified by FSV.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2010CB950502, 2010CB951904,and 2010AA012303)LASG Free Exploration Fundthe National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40906012 and 40775054)
文摘The authors investigate the relationship between bias in simulated sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific cold tongue during the boreal spring as simulated by an oceanic general circulation model (OGCM) and minimal wind mixing (MWM) at the surface. The cold bias of simulated SST is the greatest during the boreal spring, at approximately 3℃. A sensi- tivity experiment reducing MWM by one order of magnitude greatly alleviates cold biases, especially in March-April. The decrease in bias is primarily due to weakened vertical mixing, which preserves heat in the uppermost layer and results in warmer simulated SST. The reduction in vertical mixing also leads to a weak westward current in the upper layer, which further contributes to SST warming. These findings imply that there are large uncertainties about simple model parameters such as MWM at the oceanic surface.
基金Project(31200748)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Due to the nature of ultra-short-acting opioid remifentanil of high time-varying,complex compartment model and low-accuracy of plasma concentration prediction,the traditional estimation method of population pharmacokinetics parameters,nonlinear mixed effects model(NONMEM),has the abuses of tedious work and plenty of man-made jamming factors.The Elman feedback neural network was built.The relationships between the patients’plasma concentration of remifentanil and time,patient’age,gender,lean body mass,height,body surface area,sampling time,total dose,and injection rate through network training were obtained to predict the plasma concentration of remifentanil,and after that,it was compared with the results of NONMEM algorithm.In conclusion,the average error of Elman network is 6.34%,while that of NONMEM is 18.99%.The absolute average error of Elman network is 27.07%,while that of NONMEM is 38.09%.The experimental results indicate that Elman neural network could predict the plasma concentration of remifentanil rapidly and stably,with high accuracy and low error.For the characteristics of simple principle and fast computing speed,this method is suitable to data analysis of short-acting anesthesia drug population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamics.
基金Project(51105194)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(20113218110017)supported by the Doctoral Program Foundation of Institutions of Higher Education of China+2 种基金Project supported by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions,ChinaProject(CXZZ11_0199)supported by the Funding of Jiangsu Innovation Program for Graduate Education,ChinaProjects(NZ2013303,NZ2014201)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China
文摘A new nonlinear transverse-torsional coupled model with backlash and bearing clearance was proposed for planetary gear set. Meanwhile, sun gear and planet's eccentricity errors, static transmission error, and time-varying meshing stiffness were taken into consideration. The differential governing equations of motion were solved by employing variable step-size Rung-Kutta numerical integration method. The behavior of dynamic load sharing characteristics affected by the system parameters including input rate, sun gear's supporting stiffness and eccentricity error, planet's eccentricity error, sun gear's bearing clearance, backlashes of sun-planet and planet-ring meshes were investigated qualitatively and systematically. Some theoretical results are summarized at last which extend the current understanding of the dynamic load sharing behavior of planet gear train, enrich the related literature and provide references for the design of planetary gear train.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program,Grant Nos.2010CB951902 and 2011CB403505)the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China(Grant No.2009BAC51B03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41106003)
文摘Validated satellite-derived sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are widely used for climate monitoring and ocean data assimilation systems. In this study, the Fengyun-3A (FY-3A) SST experimental product is evaluated using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-merged and in situ SSTs. A comparison of AVHRR-merged SSTs reveals a negative bias of more than 2K in FY-3A SSTs in most of the tropical Pacific and low-latitude Indian and Atlantic Oceans. The error variance of FY-3A SSTs is estimated using three-way error analysis. FY-3A SSTs show regional error variance in global oceans with a maximum error variance of 2.2 K in the Pacific Ocean. In addition, a significant seasonal variation of error variance is present in FY-3A SSTs, which indicates that the quality of FY-3A SST could be improved by adjusting the parameters in the SST retrieval algorithm and by applying regional and seasonal algorithms, particularly in key areas such as the tropical Pacific Ocean. An objective analysis method is used to merge FY-3A SSTs with the drifter buoy data. The errors of FY-3A SSTs are decreased to-0.45K comparing with SST observations from GTSPP.
基金Project ‘Ocean Carbon Cycle and Tropical Forcing of Climate Evolution’ to provide research material for this studythe National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (91228204, 41376047) for financial support
文摘Using a coccolith weight analytic software(Particle Analyser), we analyze most abundant coccolith species in a sediment core from the central Western Pacific Warm Pool(WPWP) and calculate coccolith size and weight variations over the last 200 ka. These variations are compared with the trends of sea surface temperature(SST), primary productivity(PP), sea surface salinity(SSS), and insolation. Our results demonstrate that the size and weight of the coccoliths varied in response to variations of these factors, and their average total weight is primarily related to the relative abundance of the dominant species GEO(Gephyrocapsa oceanica). The variation in weight of EMI(Emiliania huxleyi) and GEE(Gephyrocapsa ericsonii) are mainly influenced by nutrients, and the variation of GEM(G. muellerae conformis) and GEO(G. oceanica) weight are mainly influenced by SST. For all of the taxa weight, PP and SST present apparent precession or semi-precession cycles, we consider that the mono-coccolith weight of the Equatorial Western Pacific is primarily affected by precession drived thermocline and nutricline variation.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 40971062)
文摘Part-time farming has been increasing steadily in China. It is currently the largest segment among all the farm sectors in the country. Based on rural household survey data in Taipusi County as a case site ofecologically-vulnerable areas in North China, we firstly classify farm households into four types according to the proportion of non-farm income in total income, and then compare their agricultural land use patterns to empirically examine the impacts of part-time farming on agricultural land use in this area. The results suggest that non-farming households rent out all their land and give up farming, and this satisfies the expectation of other households to expand land area. The crop planting structure was not significantly different among the households, which reflected the farmers' will to pursuit labor productivity. Part-time farming households invest more capital and materials than full-time faming households because the income derived from non-farm employment relaxes the financial constraint of households. However, the amount of labor input of part-time farming households tends to be less, and farming practices are dominated by the elderly, female and laborers withrelative low educations.Yields of crops and the benefit of agricultural land use incline to reduce, which suggest that the potential of land use productivity is more elastic to labor inputs than capital inputs in the study area.
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.KGCX3-SYW-403-10)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.10973020,10673017 and 40890161)
文摘A higher correlation tends to yield a more accurate prediction,so that a correlation as high as possible has been searched for and employed in the prediction of solar activity.Instead of using geomagnetic activity during the descending phase of the solar cycle,the minimum annual aa index (aa min) is used as an indicator for the ensuing maximum amplitude (R m) of the sunspot cycle.A four-cycle periodicity is roughly shown in the correlation between R m and aa min.The widely accepted Ohl's precursor prediction method often fails due to the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty.An accurate prediction depends on the positive variation of the correlation rather than a higher correlation.Previous experiences by using this method indicate that a prediction for the next cycle,R m (24)=80 ± 17,is likely to fail,implying that the sunspot maximum of Cycle 24 may be either smaller than 63 or greater than 97.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61379024 and 61131005)the Zhejiang Provincial Outstanding Youth Foundation(No.LR12F05001)
文摘We design a compact terahertz(THz) polarization beam splitter. Both plane wave expansion method and finite-difference time-domain method are used to calculate and analyze the characteristics of the proposed device. The designed polarization beam splitter can split TE-polarized and TM-polarized THz waves into different propagation directions. The simulation results show that the extinction ratios are larger than 18.36 dB for TE polarization and 13.35 dB for TM polarization in the frequency range from 1.86 THz to 1.91 THz, respectively. The designed polarization beam splitter has the advantages of small size and compact structure with a total size of 4.825 mm×0.400 mm.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41230420 & 41525017)the National Public Benefit (Meteorology) Research Foundation of China (Grant No. GYHY201306018)
文摘Using predictions for the sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) generated by an intermediate coupled model(ICM)ensemble prediction system(EPS), we first explore the "spring predictability barrier"(SPB) problem for the 2015/16 strong El Nio event from the perspective of error growth. By analyzing the growth tendency of the prediction errors for ensemble forecast members, we conclude that the prediction errors for the 2015/16 El Nio event tended to show a distinct season-dependent evolution, with prominent growth in spring and/or the beginning of the summer. This finding indicates that the predictions for the 2015/16 El Nio occurred a significant SPB phenomenon. We show that the SPB occurred in the 2015/16 El Nio predictions did not arise because of the uncertainties in the initial conditions but because of model errors. As such, the mean of ensemble forecast members filtered the effect of model errors and weakened the effect of the SPB, ultimately reducing the prediction errors for the 2015/16 El Nio event. By investigating the model errors represented by the tendency errors for the SSTA component,we demonstrate the prominent features of the tendency errors that often cause an SPB for the 2015/16 El Nio event and explain why the 2015/16 El Nio was under-predicted by the ICM EPS. Moreover, we reveal the typical feature of the tendency errors that cause not only a significant SPB but also an aggressively large prediction error. The feature is that the tendency errors present a zonal dipolar pattern with the west poles of positive anomalies in the equatorial western Pacific and the east poles of negative anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific. This tendency error bears great similarities with that of the most sensitive nonlinear forcing singular vector(NFSV)-tendency errors reported by Duan et al. and demonstrates the existence of an NFSV tendency error in realistic predictions. For other strong El Nio events, such as those that occurred in 1982/83 and 1997/98, we obtain the tendency errors of the NFSV structure, which cause a significant SPB and yield a much larger prediction error. These results suggest that the forecast skill of the ICM EPS for strong El Nio events could be greatly enhanced by using the NFSV-like tendency error to correct the model.