The standard deviation of the central Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） during the period from October to February shows that the central Pacific SSTA variation is primarily due to the occurrence of the...The standard deviation of the central Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） during the period from October to February shows that the central Pacific SSTA variation is primarily due to the occurrence of the Central Pacific E1 Nifio （CP-E1 Nifio） and has a connection with the subtropical air-sea interaction in the northeastern Pacific. After removing the influence of the Eastern Pacific E1 Nifio, an S-EOF analysis is conducted and the leading mode shows a clear seasonal SSTA evolving from the subtropical northeastern Pacific to the tropical central Pacific with a quasi-biennial period. The initial subtropical SSTA is generated by the wind speed decrease and surface heat flux increase due to a north Pacific anomalous cyclone. Such subtropical SSTA can further influence the establishment of the SSTA in the tropical central Pacific via the wind-evaporation-SST （WES） feedback. After established, the central equatorial Pacific SSTA can be strengthened by the zonal advective feedback and thermocline feedback, and develop into CP-E1 Nifio. However, as the thermocline feedback increases the SSTA cooling after the mature phase, the heat flux loss and the reversed zonal advective feedback can cause the phase transition of CP-EI Nifio. Along with the wind stress variability, the recharge （discharge） process occurs in the central （eastern） equatorial Pacific and such a process causes the phase consistency between the thermocline depth and SST anomalies, which presents a contrast to the original recharge/discharge theory.展开更多
E1 Nino events with an eastern Pacific pattern （EP） and central Pacific pattern （CP） were first separated using rotated empirical orthogonal functions （REOF）. Lead/lag regression and rotated singular value decom...E1 Nino events with an eastern Pacific pattern （EP） and central Pacific pattern （CP） were first separated using rotated empirical orthogonal functions （REOF）. Lead/lag regression and rotated singular value decomposition （RSVD） analyses were then carried out to study the relation between the surface zonal wind （SZW） anomalies and sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies in the tropical Pacific. A possible physical process for the CP E1 Nifio was proposed. For the EP E1 Nino, strong westerly anomalies that spread eastward continuously produce an anomalous ocean zonal convergence zone （ZCZ） centered on about 165°W. This SZW anomaly pattern favors poleward and eastward Sverdrup transport at the equator. For the CP E1Nino, westerly anomalies and the ZCZ are mainly confined to the western Pacific, and easterly anomalies blow in the eastern Pacific. This SZW anomaly pattern restrains poleward and eastward Sverdrup transport at the equator; however, there is an eastward Sverdrup transport at about 5°N, which favors the wanning of the north-eastern tropical Pacific. It is found that the slowness of eastward propagation of subsurface warm water （partly from the downwelling caused by Ekman convergence and the ZCZ） is due to the slowdown of the undercurrent in the central basin, and vertical advection in the central Pacific may be important in the formation and disappearance of the CP E1 Nifio.展开更多
Previous studies have shown that meridional displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream (EAJS) dominates interannual variability of the EAJS in the summer months.This study investigates the tropical P...Previous studies have shown that meridional displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream (EAJS) dominates interannual variability of the EAJS in the summer months.This study investigates the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with meridional displacement of the monthly EAJS during the summer.The meridional displacement of the EAJS in June is significantly associated with the tropical central Pacific SST anomaly in the winter of previous years,while displacements in July and August are related to tropical eastern Pacific SST anomalies in the late spring and concurrent summer.The EAJS tends to shift southward in the following June (July and August) corresponding to a warm SST anomaly in the central (eastern) Pacific in the winter (late spring-summer).The westerly anomaly south of the Asian jet stream is a result of tropical central Pacific warm SST anomaly-related warming in the tropical troposphere,which is proposed as a possible reason for southward displacement of the EAJS in June.The late spring-summer warm SST anomaly in the tropical eastern Pacific,however,may be linked to southward displacement of the EAJS in July and August through a meridional teleconnection over the western North Pacific (WNP) and East Asia.展开更多
Weather and climate in East China are closely related to the variability of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), which is an important part of the Asian monsoon system. The WPSH prediction in spring and summer ...Weather and climate in East China are closely related to the variability of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), which is an important part of the Asian monsoon system. The WPSH prediction in spring and summer is a critical component of rainfall forecasting during the summer flood season in China. Although many attempts have been made to predict WPSH variability, its predictability remains limited in practice due to the complexity of the WPSH evolution. Many studies have indicated that the sea surface temperature(SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean has a significant effect on WPSH variability. In this paper, a statistical model is developed to forecast the monthly variation in the WPSH during the spring and summer seasons on the basis of its relationship with SST over the tropical Indian Ocean. The forecasted SST over the tropical Indian Ocean is the predictor in this model, which differs significantly from other WPSH prediction methods. A 26-year independent hindcast experiment from 1983 to 2008 is conducted and validated in which the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is compared with that driven by the persisted SST. Results indicate that the skill score of the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is substantial.展开更多
This paper provides evidence that the variation of boreal winter sea level pressure (SLP) over the North Pacific is out-of-phase with SLP fluctuation over the tropical Indian Ocean on both the interdecadal and interan...This paper provides evidence that the variation of boreal winter sea level pressure (SLP) over the North Pacific is out-of-phase with SLP fluctuation over the tropical Indian Ocean on both the interdecadal and interannual time scales.Subsequently,a SLP between tropical Indian Ocean and North Pacific (TIO-NP) oscillation index is defined to indicate the variation of such out-of-phase fluctuation.Moreover,the simultaneous surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in China are closely related to TIO-NP oscillations.Below-normal surface air temperature anomalies in the northern and the eastern part of China,and less rainfall in southern China,correspond to positive TIO-NP oscillation phase with negative SLP anomalies in tropical Indian Ocean and positive anomalies in North Pacific.The TIO-NP oscillation affects China's winter climate anomalies,possibly through modulating the northeast East Asia winter monsoon.展开更多
Two record-breaking rainfalls in late June of 2015 led to widespread flooding in Eastern China, espe- cially over the Yangtze River Delta, and this in turn led to huge economic losses. Analysis suggests that the E1 Ni...Two record-breaking rainfalls in late June of 2015 led to widespread flooding in Eastern China, espe- cially over the Yangtze River Delta, and this in turn led to huge economic losses. Analysis suggests that the E1 Nifio- like sea surface temperature pattern during that month facilitated an intensified and southwestward-shifted west- ern Pacific subtropical high and enhanced water vapor convergence along the Meiyu front, which provided a favorable environment for the occurrence of heavy rainfall over Eastern China. Meanwhile, two midlatitude troughs were successively formed over East Asia in the second half of the month as a consequence of the downstream energy dispersions of two midlatitude blockings. These configu- rations facilitated the southward intrusion of the extrat- ropical high potential vorticity toward the Meiyu front. In this way, the ascent was enhanced along the Meiyu front over Eastern China, and the occurrence of heavy rainfalls was triggered. Moreover, a tropical intraseasonal active convection propagated northward and also contributed constructively to the heavy rainfall.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973Program:2012CB955604)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.40975038and40830106)+5 种基金the CMA Program(GYHY200906008)the financial support provided by the China Scholarship Counciljointly supported by the 973 Program of China(2010CB950404)DOE grant DE-SC0005110National Science Foundation(NSF)grants ATM1034798NOAA grand NA10OAR4310200
文摘The standard deviation of the central Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） during the period from October to February shows that the central Pacific SSTA variation is primarily due to the occurrence of the Central Pacific E1 Nifio （CP-E1 Nifio） and has a connection with the subtropical air-sea interaction in the northeastern Pacific. After removing the influence of the Eastern Pacific E1 Nifio, an S-EOF analysis is conducted and the leading mode shows a clear seasonal SSTA evolving from the subtropical northeastern Pacific to the tropical central Pacific with a quasi-biennial period. The initial subtropical SSTA is generated by the wind speed decrease and surface heat flux increase due to a north Pacific anomalous cyclone. Such subtropical SSTA can further influence the establishment of the SSTA in the tropical central Pacific via the wind-evaporation-SST （WES） feedback. After established, the central equatorial Pacific SSTA can be strengthened by the zonal advective feedback and thermocline feedback, and develop into CP-E1 Nifio. However, as the thermocline feedback increases the SSTA cooling after the mature phase, the heat flux loss and the reversed zonal advective feedback can cause the phase transition of CP-EI Nifio. Along with the wind stress variability, the recharge （discharge） process occurs in the central （eastern） equatorial Pacific and such a process causes the phase consistency between the thermocline depth and SST anomalies, which presents a contrast to the original recharge/discharge theory.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41076010,41206017)the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2012CB417402)
文摘E1 Nino events with an eastern Pacific pattern （EP） and central Pacific pattern （CP） were first separated using rotated empirical orthogonal functions （REOF）. Lead/lag regression and rotated singular value decomposition （RSVD） analyses were then carried out to study the relation between the surface zonal wind （SZW） anomalies and sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies in the tropical Pacific. A possible physical process for the CP E1 Nifio was proposed. For the EP E1 Nino, strong westerly anomalies that spread eastward continuously produce an anomalous ocean zonal convergence zone （ZCZ） centered on about 165°W. This SZW anomaly pattern favors poleward and eastward Sverdrup transport at the equator. For the CP E1Nino, westerly anomalies and the ZCZ are mainly confined to the western Pacific, and easterly anomalies blow in the eastern Pacific. This SZW anomaly pattern restrains poleward and eastward Sverdrup transport at the equator; however, there is an eastward Sverdrup transport at about 5°N, which favors the wanning of the north-eastern tropical Pacific. It is found that the slowness of eastward propagation of subsurface warm water （partly from the downwelling caused by Ekman convergence and the ZCZ） is due to the slowdown of the undercurrent in the central basin, and vertical advection in the central Pacific may be important in the formation and disappearance of the CP E1 Nifio.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40810059005)
文摘Previous studies have shown that meridional displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream (EAJS) dominates interannual variability of the EAJS in the summer months.This study investigates the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with meridional displacement of the monthly EAJS during the summer.The meridional displacement of the EAJS in June is significantly associated with the tropical central Pacific SST anomaly in the winter of previous years,while displacements in July and August are related to tropical eastern Pacific SST anomalies in the late spring and concurrent summer.The EAJS tends to shift southward in the following June (July and August) corresponding to a warm SST anomaly in the central (eastern) Pacific in the winter (late spring-summer).The westerly anomaly south of the Asian jet stream is a result of tropical central Pacific warm SST anomaly-related warming in the tropical troposphere,which is proposed as a possible reason for southward displacement of the EAJS in June.The late spring-summer warm SST anomaly in the tropical eastern Pacific,however,may be linked to southward displacement of the EAJS in July and August through a meridional teleconnection over the western North Pacific (WNP) and East Asia.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB417404)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41075064 and41176014)
文摘Weather and climate in East China are closely related to the variability of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), which is an important part of the Asian monsoon system. The WPSH prediction in spring and summer is a critical component of rainfall forecasting during the summer flood season in China. Although many attempts have been made to predict WPSH variability, its predictability remains limited in practice due to the complexity of the WPSH evolution. Many studies have indicated that the sea surface temperature(SST) over the tropical Indian Ocean has a significant effect on WPSH variability. In this paper, a statistical model is developed to forecast the monthly variation in the WPSH during the spring and summer seasons on the basis of its relationship with SST over the tropical Indian Ocean. The forecasted SST over the tropical Indian Ocean is the predictor in this model, which differs significantly from other WPSH prediction methods. A 26-year independent hindcast experiment from 1983 to 2008 is conducted and validated in which the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is compared with that driven by the persisted SST. Results indicate that the skill score of the WPSH prediction driven by the combined forecasted SST is substantial.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Projects) under Grant 2011CB309704the National Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest under Grant 201006021the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 40890155,U0733002,and 40810059005
文摘This paper provides evidence that the variation of boreal winter sea level pressure (SLP) over the North Pacific is out-of-phase with SLP fluctuation over the tropical Indian Ocean on both the interdecadal and interannual time scales.Subsequently,a SLP between tropical Indian Ocean and North Pacific (TIO-NP) oscillation index is defined to indicate the variation of such out-of-phase fluctuation.Moreover,the simultaneous surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in China are closely related to TIO-NP oscillations.Below-normal surface air temperature anomalies in the northern and the eastern part of China,and less rainfall in southern China,correspond to positive TIO-NP oscillation phase with negative SLP anomalies in tropical Indian Ocean and positive anomalies in North Pacific.The TIO-NP oscillation affects China's winter climate anomalies,possibly through modulating the northeast East Asia winter monsoon.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2013CB430203)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(4123052741422501)
文摘Two record-breaking rainfalls in late June of 2015 led to widespread flooding in Eastern China, espe- cially over the Yangtze River Delta, and this in turn led to huge economic losses. Analysis suggests that the E1 Nifio- like sea surface temperature pattern during that month facilitated an intensified and southwestward-shifted west- ern Pacific subtropical high and enhanced water vapor convergence along the Meiyu front, which provided a favorable environment for the occurrence of heavy rainfall over Eastern China. Meanwhile, two midlatitude troughs were successively formed over East Asia in the second half of the month as a consequence of the downstream energy dispersions of two midlatitude blockings. These configu- rations facilitated the southward intrusion of the extrat- ropical high potential vorticity toward the Meiyu front. In this way, the ascent was enhanced along the Meiyu front over Eastern China, and the occurrence of heavy rainfalls was triggered. Moreover, a tropical intraseasonal active convection propagated northward and also contributed constructively to the heavy rainfall.
