This paper uses Abductive network to predict global solar radiation in any location in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia （KSA） based on sunshine duration, month number, latitude, longitude, and altitude of the location. R...This paper uses Abductive network to predict global solar radiation in any location in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia （KSA） based on sunshine duration, month number, latitude, longitude, and altitude of the location. Results indicate good agreement between measured and predicted GSR values for each of the 35 locations with known GSR values. Finally, the data from all available stations are used to train an abductive network to estimate the GSR values anywhere in the Kingdom based on latitude and longitude. GSR values are estimated using the developed method at 25 additional locations throughout the kingdom and used with the measured data from the 35 available measurement stations to draw a comprehensive contour map of GSR values for KSA.展开更多
In order to uncover a possible influence on the Earth's climate, we need a much longer time series, i.e., the total solar irradiance (TSI) which is also an interesting issue in its own right in solar physics. By c...In order to uncover a possible influence on the Earth's climate, we need a much longer time series, i.e., the total solar irradiance (TSI) which is also an interesting issue in its own right in solar physics. By comparing different solar indices associated with TSI during the period 1979 to 2009, several empirical models in the TSI are presented. We verify that the reconstruction model based on the three variables: sunspot number, sunspot area, and solar 10.7 cm radio flux, is the best one. As demonstrated by model calculations, the history of TSI was reconstructed back to 1947 based on 3-indices and to 1874 based on 2-indices, respectively. The reason that the reduced irradiance on the trough during 2006 to 2009 lasts long may be due to the about 85-year cycle of solar activity, which modulates the intensity of the 11-year cycle (Schwabe cycles), possesses a considerable potential to produce an effective reducing, and holds on a steadily lower level of irradiance.展开更多
文摘This paper uses Abductive network to predict global solar radiation in any location in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia （KSA） based on sunshine duration, month number, latitude, longitude, and altitude of the location. Results indicate good agreement between measured and predicted GSR values for each of the 35 locations with known GSR values. Finally, the data from all available stations are used to train an abductive network to estimate the GSR values anywhere in the Kingdom based on latitude and longitude. GSR values are estimated using the developed method at 25 additional locations throughout the kingdom and used with the measured data from the 35 available measurement stations to draw a comprehensive contour map of GSR values for KSA.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 10978007)the Excellent Scientists Training Program of Beijing
文摘In order to uncover a possible influence on the Earth's climate, we need a much longer time series, i.e., the total solar irradiance (TSI) which is also an interesting issue in its own right in solar physics. By comparing different solar indices associated with TSI during the period 1979 to 2009, several empirical models in the TSI are presented. We verify that the reconstruction model based on the three variables: sunspot number, sunspot area, and solar 10.7 cm radio flux, is the best one. As demonstrated by model calculations, the history of TSI was reconstructed back to 1947 based on 3-indices and to 1874 based on 2-indices, respectively. The reason that the reduced irradiance on the trough during 2006 to 2009 lasts long may be due to the about 85-year cycle of solar activity, which modulates the intensity of the 11-year cycle (Schwabe cycles), possesses a considerable potential to produce an effective reducing, and holds on a steadily lower level of irradiance.
