Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought los...Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought losses. Based on the fuzzy characteristics of agricultural drought risk, variable fuzzy sets model was used for comprehensively assessing agricultural drought risk of Liaoning Province in China. A multi-layers and multi-indices assessment model was estab-lished according to variable fuzzy sets theory, and agricultural drought risk of all 14 prefecture-level cities was respec-tively estimated in terms of dangerousness, vulnerability, exposure and drought-resistibility. By calculating the combi-nation weights of four drought risk factors, agricultural drought risk grade of each city was obtained. Based on the as-sessment results, the spatial distribution maps of agricultural drought risk were drawn. The results shows that eastern cities have lower drought dangerousness than western cities in Liaoning Province totally. Most cities are located in low drought vulnerability region and high drought exposure region. Because of frequent and severe drought since 2000, most cities are located in lower drought-resistibility region. Comprehensive agricultural drought risk presents apparent spatial characteristics, escalating from the east to the west. Drought dangerousness is the most important factor influencing comprehensive agricultural drought risk. Through the spatial distribution maps of drought risk, decision makers could find out drought situation and make decisions on drought resistance conveniently.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships among the variables, and how interest rate, unemployment, stock market, and consumer confidence affect housing market index （HM1） in the U.S.. We constru...The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships among the variables, and how interest rate, unemployment, stock market, and consumer confidence affect housing market index （HM1） in the U.S.. We construct vector autoregression （VAR） model with variables such as unemployment rate （UMR）, consumer confidence index （CCI）, the Dow Jones industrial index （DJI）, and interest rate, etc., to forecast the HMI. Our model and analysis show that U.S. HMI very sensitive to unemployment and interest rates. Every 1% moves in unemployment and interest rates will result in HMI to move in the opposite direction by 11.7% and 11.4% respectively. However, changes in CCI and stock mark index have only minor impacts on HMI--0.49% and 0.3%, changes for 1% fluctuation in CCI and DJI. Our research also shows that relationships among these variables associated with housing market are very stable in the long run.展开更多
Banking institutions all over the world face significant challenge due to the cumulative loss due to defaults of borrowers of different types of loans. The cumulative default loss built up over a period of time could ...Banking institutions all over the world face significant challenge due to the cumulative loss due to defaults of borrowers of different types of loans. The cumulative default loss built up over a period of time could wipe out the capital cushion of the banks. The aim of this paper is to help the banks to forecast the cumulative loss and its volatility. Defaulting amounts are random and defaults occur at random instants of time. A non Markovian time dependent random point process is used to model the cumulative loss. The expected loss and volatility are evaluated analytically. They are functions of probability of default, probability of loss amount, recovery rate and time. Probability of default being the important contributor is evaluated using Hidden Markov modeling. Numerical results obtained validate the model.展开更多
This article uses the age-structure/life-cycle method to analyze the impact of migrant workers’ employment on their urbanization. Since enterprises tend to employ younger workers and unemployed migrant workers tend t...This article uses the age-structure/life-cycle method to analyze the impact of migrant workers’ employment on their urbanization. Since enterprises tend to employ younger workers and unemployed migrant workers tend to be middle-aged, we first apply the age structure/life cycle model to carry out our estimations, pointing out that in order to complete the urbanization of their families, migrant worker couples usually have to work for thirty years consecutively after marriage. On this basis, the article constructs a working life table for migrant workers and uses it to estimate the total quantity of Chinese migrant workers who have the minimum economic capacity required for urbanization. Taking into consideration future changes in the age structure of enterprise employment, we estimate that over the sixty-nine million migrant workers who were under thirty years old in 2006, together with their families, would already be in possession of the minimum economic conditions for settling in urban areas.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of Key Program of National Key Technology R & D Program of China (No. 2007BAB28B01)
文摘Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought losses. Based on the fuzzy characteristics of agricultural drought risk, variable fuzzy sets model was used for comprehensively assessing agricultural drought risk of Liaoning Province in China. A multi-layers and multi-indices assessment model was estab-lished according to variable fuzzy sets theory, and agricultural drought risk of all 14 prefecture-level cities was respec-tively estimated in terms of dangerousness, vulnerability, exposure and drought-resistibility. By calculating the combi-nation weights of four drought risk factors, agricultural drought risk grade of each city was obtained. Based on the as-sessment results, the spatial distribution maps of agricultural drought risk were drawn. The results shows that eastern cities have lower drought dangerousness than western cities in Liaoning Province totally. Most cities are located in low drought vulnerability region and high drought exposure region. Because of frequent and severe drought since 2000, most cities are located in lower drought-resistibility region. Comprehensive agricultural drought risk presents apparent spatial characteristics, escalating from the east to the west. Drought dangerousness is the most important factor influencing comprehensive agricultural drought risk. Through the spatial distribution maps of drought risk, decision makers could find out drought situation and make decisions on drought resistance conveniently.
文摘The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships among the variables, and how interest rate, unemployment, stock market, and consumer confidence affect housing market index （HM1） in the U.S.. We construct vector autoregression （VAR） model with variables such as unemployment rate （UMR）, consumer confidence index （CCI）, the Dow Jones industrial index （DJI）, and interest rate, etc., to forecast the HMI. Our model and analysis show that U.S. HMI very sensitive to unemployment and interest rates. Every 1% moves in unemployment and interest rates will result in HMI to move in the opposite direction by 11.7% and 11.4% respectively. However, changes in CCI and stock mark index have only minor impacts on HMI--0.49% and 0.3%, changes for 1% fluctuation in CCI and DJI. Our research also shows that relationships among these variables associated with housing market are very stable in the long run.
文摘Banking institutions all over the world face significant challenge due to the cumulative loss due to defaults of borrowers of different types of loans. The cumulative default loss built up over a period of time could wipe out the capital cushion of the banks. The aim of this paper is to help the banks to forecast the cumulative loss and its volatility. Defaulting amounts are random and defaults occur at random instants of time. A non Markovian time dependent random point process is used to model the cumulative loss. The expected loss and volatility are evaluated analytically. They are functions of probability of default, probability of loss amount, recovery rate and time. Probability of default being the important contributor is evaluated using Hidden Markov modeling. Numerical results obtained validate the model.
文摘This article uses the age-structure/life-cycle method to analyze the impact of migrant workers’ employment on their urbanization. Since enterprises tend to employ younger workers and unemployed migrant workers tend to be middle-aged, we first apply the age structure/life cycle model to carry out our estimations, pointing out that in order to complete the urbanization of their families, migrant worker couples usually have to work for thirty years consecutively after marriage. On this basis, the article constructs a working life table for migrant workers and uses it to estimate the total quantity of Chinese migrant workers who have the minimum economic capacity required for urbanization. Taking into consideration future changes in the age structure of enterprise employment, we estimate that over the sixty-nine million migrant workers who were under thirty years old in 2006, together with their families, would already be in possession of the minimum economic conditions for settling in urban areas.
