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基于N-1+1准则的舰船电力系统结构合理性量化评估研究
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作者 王志飞 《船电技术》 2013年第3期1-3,共3页
为了实现舰船电力系统结构合理性的量化评估,借鉴陆地电力系统N-1+1规则,编制仿真程序,以舰船典型电力网络为例,对其负荷失电概率进行了量化计算。进而为了计算舰船电力系统多重故障下的供电连续性,对N-1+1规则进行了改进,得到了N-2+2规... 为了实现舰船电力系统结构合理性的量化评估,借鉴陆地电力系统N-1+1规则,编制仿真程序,以舰船典型电力网络为例,对其负荷失电概率进行了量化计算。进而为了计算舰船电力系统多重故障下的供电连续性,对N-1+1规则进行了改进,得到了N-2+2规则,以二重故障为例,计算了舰船典型电力网络供电连续性指标。计算结果表明,该方法可以方便有效地得到舰船电力系统负荷失电概率,从而为舰船电力系统结构合理性评估提供了有益的理论支撑。 展开更多
关键词 舰船力系统 连续性 失电概率 N-1+1
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极端气象条件下配电网大范围停电贝叶斯网络建模和停电概率预测方法 被引量:13
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作者 陈颖 刘冰倩 +2 位作者 朱淑娟 李博达 李俊均 《供用电》 2019年第7期30-34,43,共6页
极端气象事件可引发配电网大面积停电事故,造成严重的经济损失。合理评估和预测极端灾害引发停电风险是实施应急预防所需的关键技术。区别于针对单一设备的灾害停运模型,文章考虑灾后设备停运事件的时空相关性,利用历史灾损记录和灾害... 极端气象事件可引发配电网大面积停电事故,造成严重的经济损失。合理评估和预测极端灾害引发停电风险是实施应急预防所需的关键技术。区别于针对单一设备的灾害停运模型,文章考虑灾后设备停运事件的时空相关性,利用历史灾损记录和灾害数值模拟数据,构建灾害时间贝叶斯网络模型,进而根据灾情快速推理配电网停电范围和停电概率。以IEEE14节点系统为测试对象,通过仿真算例验证了所提方法的有效性和正确性。 展开更多
关键词 弹性 极端气象 历史数据仿真 贝叶斯网络 失电概率预测
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Study on lifetime and reliability for power battery pack based on single battery failure
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作者 王震坡 Liu Peng Chen Wei 《High Technology Letters》 EI CAS 2010年第1期18-22,共5页
Single battery failure will change other batteries' load in a power battery pack. Based on the cumulative failure probability equality principle, this paper considers the relationship between the load and the battery... Single battery failure will change other batteries' load in a power battery pack. Based on the cumulative failure probability equality principle, this paper considers the relationship between the load and the battery life distribution, and constructs a reliability model for the parallel subsystem of the battery pack when a single battery fails, and then compares the lifetime and reliability as a function of load and cell design. The result proves that the k-out-of-n system approaches closed to the parallel subsystem of the power battery pack. 展开更多
关键词 LIFETIME RELIABILITY BATTERY electric vehicle FAILURE
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Evaluation of Loss of Load Probability and Expected Energy Generation in Multi-area Interconnected Systems with Wind Generating Units
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作者 Kaisar R. Khan Ahmed A. Abou-Arkoub +1 位作者 Mohamed Youssef Michael J. Newtown 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2014年第5期805-811,共7页
Due to randomness of wind generator's availability, power system planners have big concern on EEG (expected energy generation) and system reliability of power system with wind generators. This paper presents a meth... Due to randomness of wind generator's availability, power system planners have big concern on EEG (expected energy generation) and system reliability of power system with wind generators. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate the EEG as well as overall LOLP (loss of load probability), which is an index for system reliability of multi-area interconnected systems with wind generators, as well as conventional fossil fuel based generating units. The proposed model is also capable of tracking the energy export incorporating the multi-state probability model for wind generator which output varies with time and season. 展开更多
关键词 LOLP expected energy generation wind generator.
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