利用NOAA AVHRR植被指数数据集分析黑河流域季候特征

利用 NOAA AVHRR的全球归一化植被指数（NDVI）的高时间分辨率数据集，建立了黑河流域 1992-1993和1995-1996两个年度的NDVI数据，范围在96．45°～102．8 °E，35．4°～43．5°N之间。对此数据进行主成分分析（PCA）．提取了前4个主成分分量，分析了黑河流域季候变化特征。结果表明，第一主成分展示了黑河流域NDVI值在分析时段内的综合空间分布结构、累积状况以及地域差异；第二主成分反映黑河流域的NDVI变化不但具有明显的年周期，而且表现出强烈的季节性，是冬夏分明的季节因素所导致；第三主成分主要指征了平原人工绿洲区显著的农作物生长期；第四主成分反映出山区自然植被与平原人工绿洲植被具有明显不同的生长期和物候特征，该成分可以被用于区分不同的地表覆盖类型。

季候特征影响下的城市中心区公共绿地休憩设施使用行为研究--以上海市淮海公园为例

休憩设施作为城市中心区公共绿地中使用率最高的公共设施,对绿地休憩空间的品质提升具有重要影响。不同季候特征下的光照、气温、降水、风速以及植物类型丰富度的差异使得游人对休憩设施的各类功能需求不同,因此游人对休憩设施的使用行为也产生不同的偏好。运用Wi-Fi探针技术对淮海公园四季的游人分布数据进行收集,并采用核密度分析法分析不同季节的游人在淮海公园内各类休憩设施周围的集聚程度,用以衡量不同季候特征影响下的休憩设施的使用情况并总结规律,为今后的公共绿地休憩设施的设计提供参考,提高公共绿地活力及品质。

Morphological Characteristics Analysis of 11 Broom Sorghum Varieties

[Objective] To provide a theoretical basis for high-yield breeding of broom sorghum.[Method] Using 11 kinds of broom sorghum collected at home as research objects, the differences in morphological characteristics of broom sorghum were compared through the survey of some indicators, such as plant height, tillering, inflorescence, stem node, stem-leaf ratio, yield, and so on. [Result] The 11 kinds of broom sorghum were different in morphological characteristics with large amplitude of plant height; zygl-1, zygl-6, zygl-8 and zygl-9 were appropriate for fixed broom type; zygl-9 had the highest integrated production. [Condusion] The study laid the foundation for further exploring breeding, cultivation and promotion of broom sorghum.

说不尽的《清明上河图》

自从郑振铎先生在《【清明上河图】的研究》一文中提出:“时节是‘清明’的时候,也就是春天的三月三日”之后,谈论《清明上河图》者多奉此说为圭臬。然而有趣的是,今年的清明节偏偏是农历的“二月十七日”。此外,在宋人刘昌诗的《芦浦笔记》卷五《赵清献公充御试官日记》中,也有三月“九日清明。雨、奏乞送焻字号卷重详定”的记载,由此可见,郑氏之说未必允当。史证表明,《清明上河图》所绘的季候,不是踏青扫墓,门上插柳的清明时节,而是新酒上市的中秋节前后,无征不信,下面略陈管见,希识者指正。

CLIMATIC FEATURES OF SUMMER TEMPERATURE IN NORTHEAST CHINA UNDER WARMING BACKGROUND

By using,summer temperature data in 26 stations from 1951 to 2003, the variation characteristics of summer temperature in Northeast China （NET） were analyzed based on the background of climate wanning. The results showed that the warming in summer was 0.15~C/10a in Northeast China, which was higher than that on the global, Northern Hemisphere or Northeast Asia scale in the recent 50 years. The responses of NET to global warming were shown in 3 aspects mainly. Firstly, it became warm and the average temperature increased in summer; secondly, the temperature variability increased, which displayed the increase of climatic instability; thirdly, the disaster of low temperature decreased and high temperature damage increased obviously, but the disaster of low temperature still existed in some areas under global warming background, which would be worthy of notice further.

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSIONS OF BASIC CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF PRECIPITATION DURING RAINING SEASONS IN REGIONS SOUTH OF CHANGJIANG RIVER AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH SST ANOMALIES

Basic climatic characteristics are analyzed concerning the precipitation anomalies in raining seasons over regions south of the Changjiang River (the Yangtze). It finds that the regions are the earliest in eastern China where raining seasons begin and end. Precipitation there tends to decrease over the past 50 years. Waters bounded by 9(S -1(S, 121(E - 129(E are the key zones of SST anomalies that affect the precipitation in these regions over May ~ July in preceding years. Long-term air-sea interactions make it possible for preceding SST anomalies to affect the general circulation that come afterwards, causing precipitation anomalies in the raining seasons in regions south of the Changjiang River in subsequent years.

DIFFERENCES OF SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON DERIVED BY NCEP AND ECMWF REANALYSIS DATA

Due to long-term time series and many elements, reanalysis data of National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） and European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） are widely used in present climate studies. Even so, there are discrepancies between NCEP and ECMWF reanalysis. Some climate fields may be better reproduced by NCEP than by ECMWF. On the other hand, ECMWF may describe some climate characteristics more realistically than NCEP. Xu et al.pointed out that NCEP data are of uncertainty when used for studying long-term trends of climate change. By comparing temperatures and pressures from NCEP and observation, it can be seen that NCEP data show higher reliability in the east and lower-latitudes of China than in its west and higher latitudes, NCEP temperature is of more reality than pressure and NCEP data after 1979 are closer to the observations than before. Yang et al.also revealed some serious problems of NCEP data in the north of subtropical Asia. Regional differences of NCEP data in representation are also explored by other studiest. As for seasonal variability, NCEP simulates relatively real conditions of Chinese summer and annual mean but winter data are relatively bad, as in comparisons of NCEP data wity China surface station observations by Zhao et al.Moreover, Trenberth and Stepaniak showed that ECMWF data had better energy budgets than NCEP data for pure pressure coordinates are adopted by ECMWF. Renfrew et al. compared NCF, P data to ECMWF data in terms of surface fluxes and the results indicate that the time series of surface sensible and latent heating fluxes from ECMWF are 13% and 10% larger than the observations and those from NCEP would be 51% and 27% larger than the observations, respectively. So, Renfrew et al. suggested that it be more appropriate to drive ocean models by ECMWF data. Based on comparisons of multiple elements by some scientists, it seems that ECMWF data are better than NCEP data on global, hemispheric and regional scales. Whereas, reanalysis have big errors in some regions in contrast to observations, especially the variables related to humidity. Since that, researchers should compare the two sets of data and select a better one according to specific problems.

CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ONSET OF SOUTH CHINASEA SUMMERMONSOON II.INTER-DECADAL VARIATION

By using the 40-year NCEP (1958-1997) grid point reanalysis meteorological data, we analyzed the inter-decadal variation on the climatic characteristics of the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon. The results are as follows. (1) There was great difference on the onset date of the SCS summer monsoon between the first two decades and the last two decades. It was late on the 6th pentad of May for the first two decades and was on the 4th and 5th pentad of May for the next two decades. (2) Except for the third decade (1978-1987), the establishment of the monsoon rainfall was one to two pentads earlier than the onset of the summer monsoon in all other three decades. (3) The onset of the SCS monsoon is the result of the abrupt development and eastward advancement of the southwesterly monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. The four-decade analysis shows that there were abrupt development of the southwesterly monsoon over the Bay of Bengal between the 3rd and 4th pentad of May, but there was great difference between its eastward movement and its onset intensity. These may have important effect to the earlier or later onset of the SCS summer monsoon. (4) During the onset of the SCS summer monsoon, there were great difference in the upper and lower circulation feature between the first two and the next two decades. At the lower troposphere of the first two decades, the Indian-Burma trough was stronger and the center of the subtropical high was located more eastward. At the upper troposphere, the northward movement of the center of subtropical high was large and located more northward after it landed on the Indo-China Peninsula. After comparison, we can see that the circulation feature of the last two decades was favorable to the establishment and development of the SCS summer monsoon.

Climate Characters of Summer Drought in Mountain City and the Effect on Flowers and Trees

[Objective] The aim was to provide references for development of industries engaging in flowers and trees in Beipei area in Chongqing. [Method] The occurring trend, intensity trend of summer drought, relationship of intensity with rainfall and extremely highest temperature, occurring trend during initial period of summer drought and the effects in mountain cities were analyzed, based on information on lasting period, rainfall, average temperature, extremely highest temperature of sum- mer drought in Beipei area in mountain cities during 1981-2010 and, growth condi- tion and phenological phenomena of Michelia champaca during 2005-2007. [Result] The occurring probability of summer drought in mountain cities was 57% and the probabilities of light, moderate, heavy and extreme drought were 30%, 10%, 7% and 10%; intensity of summer drought was none of linear relation with rainfall and ex- tremely highest temperature. In summer drought, daily average rainfall was less than 0.9 ram; extremely highest temperature was 35.0-45.0 ℃ with probability at 30%; initial period of summer drought was from later June to middle August and of extreme drought was later June-later July; the ending period was early September. During drought, when the extremely highest temperature （〉35.0 ℃） occurred in three days within a Hou, flowers and trees were affected by the hot drought and when the extreme temperature （〉40.0 ℃） occurred in three days within a Hou, the plants were seriously affected. [Conclusion] Based on characters of summer drought, pre- cautions can be taken to reduce effects of summer drought on flowers and trees with the help of weather forecast.

Climatic change features of fog and haze in winter over North China and Huang-Huai Area

This paper revealed the climatic change characteristics of fog and haze of different levels over North China and Huang-Huai area(NCHH).It was found that the haze-prone period has changed from winter into a whole year,and the haze days(HD)in winter have increased significantly.The foggy days(FD)are half of HD.There are little difference on the number of days and trends of fog at various levels.The HD and FD show no obvious positive correlation until the 1980s.Fog has larger spatial scale,showing more in the south than in the north.Haze occurs mainly around large cities with a discrete distribution.In the background of weakened East Asian Winter Monsoon(EAWM)and sufficient particulate matter,the negative correlation between haze and wind speed is weakened,but the positive correlation between haze and moisture conditions(precipitation and humidity)is significantly strengthened.In recent years,small wind and variability appear frequently.Meanwhile,as the stable source and strong moisture absorption of the aerosol particles,the moisture condition becomes one key control factor in the haze,especially wet haze with less visibility.In contrast,the FD presents a stable positive correlation with precipitation and relative humidity,but has no obvious negative correlation with wind speed.

Unified deep learning model for El Niño/Southern Oscillation forecasts by incorporating seasonality in climate data

Although deep learning has achieved a milestone in forecasting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),the current models are insufficient to simulate diverse characteristics of the ENSO,which depends on the calendar season.Consequently,a model was generated for specific seasons which indicates these models did not consider physical constraints between different target seasons and forecast lead times,thereby leading to arbitrary fluctuations in the predicted time series.To overcome this problem and account for ENSO seasonality,we developed an all-season convolutional neural network(A_CNN)model.The correlation skill of the ENSO index was particularly improved for forecasts of the boreal spring,which is the most challenging season to predict.Moreover,activation map values indicated a clear time evolution with increasing forecast lead time.The study findings reveal the comprehensive role of various climate precursors of ENSO events that act differently over time,thus indicating the potential of the A_CNN model as a diagnostic tool.