CONNECTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON TO MARITIME CONTINENT CONVECTION AND ENSO

The relationship between the intensity of the South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） and the Nino3.4 index and anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns associated with a strong and weak SCSSM are investigated using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature （ERSST） data and Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation （CMAP） data. The SCSSM is significantly positively correlated with the Nino3.4 index in the succeeding northern autumn and winter. In the strong minus weak SCSSM composite, a positive East Asia-Pacific teleconnection （EAP） pattern and a negative Europe-Asian-Pacific teleconnection （EUP） pattern appear in the 500 hPa height difference field; low-level cross-equatorial flows are strengthened over the Maritime Continent （MC） region; positive （negative） precipitation anomalies occur in the South China Sea and western north Pacific （MC）. A possible mechanism through which SCSSM affects ENSO is proposed. A strong （weak） SCSSM strengthens （weakens） cross-equatorial flows over the MC. The anomalous cross-equatorial flows cool （warm） the SST around the MC through enhanced （reduced） surface latent heat fluxes. The cooling （warming） further leads to suppressed （enhanced） convection over the MC, and causes the anomalous westerly （easterly） in the equatorial western Pacific, which favors the onset of E1 Nino （La Nina） through modulating the positive air-sea feedback process.

REASONS FOR THE LATE ONSET AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHWARD PERSISTENCE OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON IN 2005

Features of atmospheric circulation and thermal structures are discussed using the NCAR/NCEP data to reveal the reasons for the late onset and anomalous southward persistence of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM) in 2005.The results show that three factors are crucial.First,a strong Arabian High overlaps with a high-latitude blocking high and channels strong cold air to southern Asia.Second,the Tibetan Plateau has a bigger snow cover than usual in spring and the melting of snow cools down the surface.Third,the Somali Jet breaks out at a much later date,being not conducive to convection over Indochina.The former two factors restrict atmospheric sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau and nearby regions while the third one limits latent heating over Indochina.All of the factors slow down atmospheric warming and postpone the onset of SCSSM.Long after the onset of SCSSM,strong cold air over India advances the Southwest Monsoon northward slowly,resulting in weaker convection and latent heating over the Tibetan Plateau and nearby areas.The negative feedback conversely inhibits further northward movement of Southwest Monsoon.

Extreme spring cold spells in North China during 1961–2014 and the evolving processes

This study presents the major features of extreme spring cold spells(ESCS)in North China during 1961–2014 and the evolving processes.During an ESCS,northern Eurasia is controlled by large-scale positive SLP anomalies and an anomalous anticyclone that continuously transport northern cold air to North China,causing significant,persistent,lower-than-normal daily temperatures.In fact,these positive SLP and anticyclonic wind anomalies begin to appear over northwestern Europe about 10 days prior to the ESCS.The anticyclonic wind anomalies keep moving southeastward and expand to the west of Lake Baikal until two days before the ESCS.Then,the center of the anomalous low-level anticyclone moves over Lake Baikal,inducing northerly wind anomalies that transport cold air into North China.In the following days,as the positive SLP anomalies weaken,the anomalous anticyclone and related northerly winds appear to wane,and the ESCS gradually comes to an end.The results may prove meaningful for the prediction and early warning of ESCSs.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON ONSET BASED ON GRAPES MODEL AND EXPERIMENTS ON INITIAL MODEL FIELDS

The Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES), a limited-area regional model, was used to simulate the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon. In view of the relatively insufficient information about the initial field in simulation predictions, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B (AMSU-B) data from a NOAA satellite were introduced to improve the initial values. By directly using the 3-dimensional variational data assimilation system of GRAPES, two schemes for assimilation tests were designed. In the design, Test 1 (T1) assimilates both sounding and AMSU-B data, and Test 2 (T2) assimilates only the conventional sounding data, before applying the model in simulation forecasts. Comparative experiments showed that the model was very sensitive to initial fields and successful in reproducing the monsoon onset, allocation of high- and low-level wind fields during the pentad of onset, and the northward advancement of the monsoon and monsoon rain bands. The scheme, however, simulated rainfall and the location of the subtropical high with deviations from observations. The simulated location of the subtropical high was more westward and northward and the simulated rainfall for the South China Sea was larger and covered a broader area.

A DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF THE WEAKENING OF WEST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE DURING THE PERIOD OF SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON ONSET IN 1998

The onset of South China Sea summer monsoon in 1998 occurred on May 21st. Using the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data, this paper examines the physical process of the weakening of a subtropical anticyclone in West Pacific during the onset period using the Zwack-Okossi vorticity equation. Results show that during the pre-onset period, the positive vorticity advection in front of an upper tropospheric trough was the most dominant physical mechanism for the increase of the cyclonic vorticity on the 850-hPa layer over the South China Sea and its nearby region. The secondary contribution to the increase of the cyclonic vorticity was the warm-air advection. After the onset, the magnitude of the latent-heat warming term rapidly increased and its effect on the increase of the cyclonic vorticity was about the same as the positive-vorticity advection. The adiabatic term and divergence term contributed negatively to the increase of the cyclonic vorticity most of the time. Thus, the positive vorticity advection is the most important physical mechanism for the weakening of the West Pacific subtropical anticyclone over the South China Sea during the onset period.