季节虚假回归中参数及统计量的分布特征

实际应用中,通常在回归模型中添加季节虚拟变量来消除季节性的影响,但是当数据生成过程是独立的季节单位根情形下会导致虚假回归现象的发生.本文利用泛函中心极限定理推导出回归参数及相关统计量的渐近分布,从理论上解释了季节虚假回归问题产生的根源.并且,采用蒙特卡罗方法模拟了回归参数及相关统计量的分布特征.最后,通过与非季节情形进行了比较,发现此时R2和DW统计量不再能有效识别普通最小二乘回归中的“季节虚假回归”现象.

武汉地区房地产价格的季节性变动

本文通过对武汉地区房地产价格的季节性因素动态变化性分析,发现并度量了经济政策和季节性因素对房地产价格的影响,建立了相关的评价模型,并用模型检验价格走势的季节性因素动态变化性以及政策因素对房地产价格的影响力度,在此基础上我们运用最新的X12季节性调整方法对武汉地区房地产价格的季节性因素进行分析,并建立了X12季节性调整组合模型。

Seasonal changes of soil respiration in Betula platyphylla forest in Changbai Mountain, China

A stdudy was conducted to determine the seasonal changes of soil respiration and the contribution of root respiration to soil respiration in Betula plaophylla forest in Changbai Mountain from May to September in 2004. Results indicated that the total soil respiration, root-severed soil respiration and the root respiration followed a similar seasonal trend, with a high rate in summer due to wet and high temperature and a low rate in spring and autumn due to lower temperature. The mean rates of total soil respiration, root-severed soil respiration and root respiration were 4.44, 2.30 and 2.14 μmol.m^-2.s^-1, respectively during the growing season, and they were all exponentially correlated with temperature. Soil respiration rate had a linear correlation with soil volumetric moisture. The Q10 values for total soil respiration, root-severed soil respiration and root respiration were 2,82, 2.59 and 3. 16, respectively. The contribution rate of root respiration to the total soil respiration was between 29.3% and 58.7% during the growing season, indicating that root is a major component of soil respiration. The annual mean rates of total soil respiration, root-severed soil respiration and root respiration were 1.96, 1.08, and 0.87 μmol.m^-2.s^-1, or 741.73 408.71, and 329.24 g.m^-2.a^-1, respectively. Root respiration contributed 44.4% to the annual total soil respiration. The relationship proposed for soil respiration with soil lemperature was useful for understanding and predicting potential changes in Changbai Mountain B. platyphylla forest ecosystem in response to forest management and climate change.

Contrast between the Climatic States of the Warm Pool in the Indian Ocean and in the Pacific Ocean

Based on the analysis of Levitus data, the climatic states of the warm pool in the Indian Ocean (WPIO) and in the Pacific Ocean (WPPO) are studied. It is found that WPIO has a relatively smaller area, a shallower bottom and a slightly lower seawater temperature than those of WPPO. The horizontal area at different depths, volumes, central positions, and bottom depths of both WPIO and WPPO show quite apparent signals of seasonal variation. The maximum amplitude of WPIO surface area’s seasonal variation is 58% larger over the annual mean value. WPIO’s maximum volume variation amplitude is 66% larger over the annual mean value. The maximum variation amplitudes of the surface area and volume of WPPO are 20. 9% and 20.6% larger over the annual mean value respectively. WPIO and WPPO show different temporal and spatial characteristics mainly due to the different wind fields and restriction of ocean basin geometry. For instance, seasonal northern displacement of WPIO is, to some extent, constrained by the basin of the Indian Ocean, while WPPO moves relatively freely in the longitudinal direction. The influence of WPIO and WPPO over the atmospheric motion must be quite different.

Seasonal variations in the energy budget of Elliot's pheasant (Syrmaticus ellioti) in cage

This study aimed to discuss the energy budget of Elliot's pheasant Syrmaticus ellioti in different seasons, with life and health, good growth and normal digestion of Elliot's pheasant as the tested objects, The energy budget of Elliot's pheasant was measured by daily collection of the trial pheasants' excrement in the biological garden of Guangxi Normal University from March 2011 to February 2012. The results showed that the gross energy consumption, metabolic energy and excrement energy varied by season, increasing as temperature decreased. There was significant difference in gross energy consumption, metabolic energy, excrement energy between adults and nonages. There was also a trend that food digestibility of pheasants increases as temperature increases. In the same season, the food digestibility of adults was better than that of nonages. Throughout spring, summer, autumn and winter, the metabolic energy of 4-year adults were 305.77±13.40 kJ/d, 263.67±11.89 kJ/d, 357.23±25.49 kJ/d and 403.12±24.91 kJ/d, respectively, and the nonages were 284.86±17.22 kJ/d, 284. 66±15.16 kJ/d, 402. 26±31.46 kJ/d and 420. 30±31.98 kJ/d, respectively. The minimum metabolic energies were 247.65±21.81 g, 265.86±26.53 g, respectively for each group, detected between 4-year adults and 1-year nonages. Further study is needed to determine whether 29.6 C is the optimal temperature for the Elliot's pheasant.

Monitoring Seasonal Variations of Ionospheric TEC Using GPS Measurements

The regional ionospheric model is adopted to determine satellite-plus-receiver differential delay. The satellite-plus-receiver differential delay is estimated as constant values for each day. Dual-frequency GPS pseudo-ranges observables are used to compute vertical TEC (VTEC). All the monthly mean VTEC profiles are represented by graphs using GPS data of the Beijing IGS site between 2000 and 2004. The monthly averaged values and amplitudes of VTEC are also represented by graphs. The results indicate that the VTEC has seasonal dependency. The monthly averaged values and amplitudes of VTEC in 2000 are about 2 times larger than that in 2004. The maximum VTEC values are observed in March and April, while the minimum VTEC values are observed in December. The seasonal variations trend is found to be similar after polynomial fitting between 2000 and 2004.

Seasonal and Interdecadal Variations of Heat Transport over the Northern Hemisphere

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, variations of heat transport in the Northern Hemisphere were studied. It was found that there are interdecadal variations in heat ransport from middle latitudes to higher latitudes. The variations of interdecadal heat transport over longitudes around 120° E are out of phase with those over around 90° E and over the Northcastern Pacific. The seasonal variations of heat transport were also discussed. It was found that most heat is transported in the lower layer of the troposphere from middle latitudes to higher latitudes. Over around 120° E and over around 120° W . the seasonal and interannual variations of heat transport across 32.5° N are apparent and in phase.

Variability of Surface Sensible Heat Flux over Northwest China

The present study documents the variability of surface sensible heat flux over Northwest China using station observations for the period 1961 2000.It is found that the afternoon and nighttime sensible heat flux variations are remarkably different.The variability of the instant flux in the afternoon is much larger than in the nighttime.The afternoon and nighttime flux anomalies tend to be opposite.The diurnal and seasonal dependence of sensible heat flux variations is closely related to the diurnal cycle of mean land-air temperature difference.The relationship of sensible heat flux with land-air temperature difference based on the instant value differs from that based on the daily mean.The present study indicates the importance for the models to properly simulate mean land-air temperature difference and its diurnal and seasonal variations in order to capture surface sensible heat flux variability over Northwest China and predicts its plausible impacts on climate.

Seasonal variation of tidal prism and energy in the Changjiang River estuary： a numerical study

Tidal rivers are intrinsically complex because tidal propagation is influenced by river discharge. This study aims to examine the seasonal variation of tidal prism and energy variance in the tidal river of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River estuary in China. In order to quantify the behaviour of river and tide,we use numerical modelling that has been validated using measured data. We conduct our analysis by quantifying the discharge and energy variance in separate components for both the river and the tide,during wet and dry seasons. We note various definitions of tidal prism and explore the difference between tidal discharge on the flood and ebb and tidal storage volume. The results show that the river discharge attenuates the tidal motion and reduces the tidal flood discharge but the tidal storage volume is approximately constant with different riverine discharge since part of the fresh water discharge is intercepted and captured in the estuary due to the backwater effect. It appears that the tidal discharge adjusts according to the variation of river discharge to keep a constant tidal storage volume. An analysis of the hydraulics shows that the transition from tidal dominance(at the mouth) to river dominance(upstream) depends on the location of tidal current reversal which varies from wet season to dry season. Duringthe wet season,the Changjiang River estuary is totally dominated by energy from fresh water discharge.

Variations of Terrestrial Water Storage in the Yangtze River Basin under Climate Change Scenarios

In this study, the water balance-based Precipitation-Evapotranspiration-Runoff (PER) method combined with the land surface model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) was used to estimate the spatiotemporal variations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) for two periods, 1982-2005 (baseline) and 2071-2100, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2 in the Yangtze River basin. The results show that the estimated TWS during the baseline period and under the two future climate scenarios have similar seasonal amplitudes of 60-70 mm. The higher values of TWS appear in June during the baseline period and under the B2 scenario, whereas the TWS under A2 shows two peaks in response to the related precipitation pattern. It also shows that the TWS is recharged from February to June during the baseline period, but it is replenished from March to June under the A2 and B2 scenarios. An analysis of the standard derivation of seasonal and interannual TWS time series under the three scenarios demonstrates that the seasonal TWS of the southeastern part of the Yangtze River basin varies remarkably and that the southeastern and central parts of the basin have higher variations in interannual TWS. With respect to the first mode of the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), the inverse-phase change in seasonal TWS mainly appears across the Guizhou-Sichuan-Shaanxi belt, and the entire basin generally represents a synchronous change in interannual TWS. As a whole, the TWS under A2 presents a larger seasonal variation whereas that under B2 displays a greater interannual variation. These results imply that climate change could trigger severe disasters in the southeastern and central parts of the basin.

Seasonal Changes of Energy Fluxes in an Estuarine Wetland of Shanghai,China

The energy budget and regulating factors were investigated over an estuarine wetland during one year of continuous measurement in 2006.The results show that the seasonal changes of the energy fluxes and Bowen ratio(β) were greatly affected by incoming shortwave radiation and canopy growth.During the non-growing season and early-growing season, sensible heat(H) dominated the energy flux, and β could reach a maximum of 2.5, while during most of the growing season, latent heat dominated the energy flux and β fluctuated from 0.4 to 1.0.The energy budget ratio in growing season was about 0.76, and the value would be higher if heat exchange during tidal flooding was in-cluded.During tidal flooding days, β was slightly higher than that at exposure days in most cases.Vegetation cover seems exert little effect on energy partitioning except in March when the standing dead grass intercepted the incoming radiation that might reach the soil surface and reduce the turbulence between soil and atmosphere, thus suppressing the evaporation from the soil though the soil mositure was high at that time.

Impact of seasonal tide variation on saltwater intrusion in the Changjiang River estuary

An improved 3-D ECOM-si model was used to study the impact of seasonal tide variation on saltwater intrusion into the Changjiang River estuary, especially at the bifurcation of the North Branch （NB） and the South Branch （SB）. The study assumes that the fiver discharge and wind are constant. The model successfully reproduced the saltwater intrusion. During spring tide, there is water and salt spillover （WSO and SSO） from the NB into the SB, and tidally averaged （net） water and salt fluxes are 985 m3/s and 24.8 ton/s, respectively. During neap tide, the WSO disappears and its net water flux is 122 m3/s. Meanwhile, the SSO continues, with net salt flux of 1.01 ton/s, much smaller than during spring tide. Because the tidal range during spring tide is smaller in June than in March, overall saltwater intrusion is weaker in June than in March during that tidal period. However, the WSO and SSO still exist in June. Net water and salt fluxes in that month are 622 m3/s and 15.35 ton/s, respectively, decreasing by 363 m3/s and 9.45 ton/s over those in March. Because tidal range during neap tide is greater in June than in March, saltwater intrusion in June is stronger than in March during that tidal period. The WSO and SSO appear in June, with net water and salt fluxes of 280 m3/s and 8.55 ton/s, respectively, increasing by 402 m3/s and 7.54 ton/s over those in March. Saltwater intrusion in the estuary is controlled by the fiver discharge, semi-diurnal flood-ebb tide, semi-monthly spring or neap tide, and seasonal tide variation.

Seasonal Changes in Phytoplankton Biomass and Dominant Species in the Changjiang River Estuary and Adjacent Seas:General Trends Based on Field Survey Data 1959-2009

The characteristics of seasonal variation in phytoplankton biomass and dominant species in the Changjiang River Estuary and adjacent seas were discussed based on field investigation data from 1959 to 2009. The field data from 1981 to 2004 showed that the Chlorophyll-a concentration in surface seawater was between 0.4 and 8.5 ktg dm-3. The seasonal changes generally presented a bimodal trend, with the biomass peaks occurring in May and August, and Chlorophyll-a concentration was the lowest in winter. Seasonal biomass changes were mainly controlled by temperature and nutrient levels. From the end of autumn to the next early spring, phytoplankton biomass was mainly influenced by temperature, and in other seasons, nutrient level （including the nutrient supply from the terrestrial runoffs） was the major influence factor. Field investigation data from 1959 to 2009 demonstrated that dia- toms were the main phytoplankton in this area, and Skeletonerna costatum, Pseudo-nitzschia pungens, Coscinodiscus oculus-iridis, Thalassinoema nitzschioides, Paralia sulcata, Chaetoceros lorenzianus, Chaetoceros curvisetus, and Prorocentrum donghaiense Lu were common dominant species. The seasonal variations in major dominant phytoplankton species presented the following trends： 1） Skeletonema （mainly S. costatum） was dominant throughout the year; and 2） seasonal succession trends were Coscinodiscus （spring） →Chaetoceros （summer and autumn） → Coscinodiscus （winter）. The annual dominance of S. costatum was attributed to its environmental eurytopicity and long standing time in surface waters. The seasonal succession of Coscinodiscus and Chaetoceros was associated with the seasonal variation in water stability and nutrient level in this area. On the other hand, long-term field data also indicated obvious interannual variation of phytoplankton biomass and community structure in the Changjiang River Estuary and adjacent seas： average annual phytoplankton biomass and dinoflagellate proportion both presented increased trends during the 1950s - 2000s.

Hydrological Processes in the Huaihe River Basin, China： Seasonal Variations, Causes and Implications

Understanding streamflow changes in terms of trends and periodicities and relevant causes is the first step into scientific management of water resources in a changing environment. In this study, monthly streamflow variations were analyzed using Modified Mann-Kendall(MM-K) trend test and Continuous Wavelet Transform(CWT) methods at 9 hydrological stations in the Huaihe River Basin. It was found that: 1) streamflow mainly occurs during May to September, accounting for 70.4% of the annual total streamflowamount with Cv values between 0.16–0.85 and extremum ratio values between 1.70–23.90; 2) decreased streamflow can be observed in the Huaihe River Basin and significant decreased streamflow can be detected during April and May, which should be the results of precipitation change and increased irrigation demand; 3) significant periods of 2–4 yr were detected during the 1960 s, the 1980 s and the 2000 s. Different periods were found at stations concentrated within certain regions implying periods of streamflow were caused by different influencing factors for specific regions; 4) Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) has the most significant impacts on monthly streamflow mainly during June. Besides, Southern Oscillation Index(SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and the Ni?o3.4 Sea Surface Temperature(Ni?o3.4) have impacts on monthly streamflow with three months lags, and was less significant in time lag of six months. Identification of critical climatic factors having impacts on streamflow changes can help to predict monthly streamflow changes using climatic factors as explanatory variables. These findings were well corroborated by results concerning impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) regimes on precipitation events across the Huaihe River Basin. The results of this study can provide theoretical background for basin-scale management of water resources and agricultural irrigation.

Reproductive Cycle and Seasonal Variations in Lipid Content and Fatty Acid Composition in Gonad of the Cockle Fulvia mutica in Relation to Temperature and Food

From March 2004 to February 2005,seasonal variations in lipid content and fatty acid composition of gonad of the cockle Fulvia mutica(Reeve) were studied on the eastern coast of China in relation to the reproductive cycle and environment conditions(e.g.,temperature and food availability).Histological analysis as well as lipid and fatty acid analyses were performed on neutral and polar lipids of the gonad.Results showed that gametogenesis occurred in winter and spring at the expense of lipids previously accumulated in summer and autumn,whereas spawning occurred in summer(20.4-24.6℃).The seasonal variation in lipid content was similar to that of the mean oocyte diameter.In both neutral and polar lipids,the 20:5n-3 and 22:6n-3 levels were relatively higher than saturated fatty acids,and polyunsaturated fatty acids were abundant,with series n-3 as the predominant component.Seasonal variations in the 20:5n-3 and 22:6n-3 levels and the principal n-3 fatty acids were clearly related to the reproductive cycle.The ∑(n-3) and ∑(n-6) values were relatively high during January-May,and the associated unsaturation index was significantly higher than that in other months.The results suggest that fatty acids play an important role in the gametogenesis of F.mutica.

Fuel load and flight ranges of blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla in northern Iberia during autumn and spring migrations

Fuel accumulation, mainly as fatty acids, is one of the main characteristics of migratory, birds. Studying to what extent each population or species manages fuel load and how it varies along routes of migration or between seasons （autumn and spring migrations） is crucial to our understanding of bird migration strategies. Our aim here was to analyse whether migratory blackcaps Sylvia atrieapilla passing through northern Iberia differ in their mean fuel loads, rate of fuel accumulation and ＇ potential＇ flight ranges between migration seasons. Blackcaps were mist netted for 4 h-periods beginning at dawn from 16 September to 15 November 2003 - 2005, and from 1 March to 30 April 2004 - 2006 in a European Atlantic hedgerow at Loza, northern Iberia. Both fuel load and fuel deposition rate （this latter assessed with difference in body mass of within-season recaptured individuals） were higher in autumn than in spring. Possible hypotheses explaining these results could be seasonal-associated variations in food availability （likely lower during spring than during autumn）, the fact that a fraction of the migrants captured in spring could breed close to the study area and different selective pressures for breeding and wintering

Biomass and carbon storage of Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis(Rhodophyta) in Zhanshan Bay, Qingdao, China

Marine macroalgae can absorb carbon and play an important role in carbon sequestration. As an important economic macroalga, Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis has the potential to significantly affect carbon absorption and storage in wave-sheltered intertidal reef systems. However, detailed knowledge on seasonal biomass changes and carbon storage of G. lemaneiformis is lacking, especially in many small and scattered ecosystems. Considering the influence of human activities on wild distribution of G. lemaneiformis, the understanding of seasonal dynamics of an economically important species in nature is necessary. In this study, we first investigated seasonal variations in biomass, coverage area, and carbon storage during low tide from August 2011 to July 2012 in Zhanshan Bay, Qingdao, China. Furthermore, we estimated the carbon storage potential of wild G. lemaneiformis using light use efficiency （LUE）. The results show that the standing biomass and coverage area changed significantly with season. However, seasonal variations in carbon content and water content were not obvious, with an average content of 35.1% and 83.64%, respectively. Moreover, carbon storage in individual months varied between 0.67 and 47.03 g C/mE, and the value of carbon storage was the highest in August and June and the lowest in February. In Zhanshan Bay, LUE of G. lemaneiformis was only 0.23%. If it is increased to the theoretical maximum （5%-6%）, the carbon storage will have an increase of at least 21 times compared with the current, which suggested that carbon storage of wild G. lemaneiformis had a high enhancement potential. The study will help to assess a potential role of G. lemaneiformis in reducing atmospheric CO2

Effect of hydrological variability on diatom distribution in Poyang Lake, China

Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China, and it has a seasonal flooding cycle that significantly changes the water level every year. The aim of this paper was to explain how these hydrological changes influence diatom populations in Poyang Lake. The yearly hydrological cycle can be divided into 4 phases: low water-level phase, increasing water-level phase, high water-level phase and decreasing waterlevel phase. Variations in the abundance of planktonic diatoms were studied using quarterly monitoring data collected from January 2009 to October 2013. Generally, diatoms were dominant in Poyang Lake and accounted for more than 50% of the total phytoplankton biomass except in July 2009(26%) and January 2012(35%). Aulacoseira granulata and Surirella robusta were the predominant species in all four phases, and they accounted for 25.02% to 56.89% and 5.07% to 14.78% of the total phytoplankton biomass, respectively. A redundancy analysis(RDA) showed that changes in physico-chemical parameter were related to the water level, and changes in diatom biomass were related to nitrite levels and p H. These results indicate that changes in environmental parameters related to both seasonal variations and water-level fluctuations caused variations in diatom biomass and community composition in Poyang Lake. Furthermore, extreme hydrological events can have different influences on the diatom community composition in the main channel and lentic regions. This research provides data on the diatom variations in Poyang Lake and will be useful for establishing biological indicators of environmental change and protecting Poyang Lake in the future.

Seasonal export fluxes of size-fractionated particulate derived from polonium-210: A case study in Xiamen Bay

Size-fractionated 210Po and 210Pb, in the size fractions >0.4 μm, >2 μm and >10 μm, were examined to determine the seasonal variability of particulate fluxes in Xiamen Bay. Good correlations between 210Po and particulate organic carbon (POC) or non-Particulate Organic Matter (nPOM) suggested that 210Po can be used to trace the export fluxes of POC and nPOM. Both steady-state (SS) model and nSS model were used to evaluate fluxes of size-fractionated 210Po, results showed that nSS model was better than the SS model in coastal areas. Based on the nSS model, size-fractionated POC fluxes decreased with increasing particle size. For the particle size studied, maximum POC fluxes occurred in autumn, followed by spring, winter, and summer. Fluxes of nPOM were an order of magnitude higher than the corresponding size-fractionated POC fluxes. Differences between size-fractionated nPOM fluxes indicated that hydrodynamic conditions were the main factor regulating transportation of particulate out of the inner Bay. In winter most particulates, including >10 μm particles, were transported under the strongest hydrodynamic conditions. In contrast, only a fraction of the <2 μm particulates were transported from the inner Bay in spring. This study suggested that 210Po is a powerful tracer of seasonal particulate export in coastal seas.

CO_2 flux and seasonal variability in the turbidity maximum zone and surrounding area in the Changjiang River estuary

The turbidity maximum zone(TMZ) is one of the most important regions in an estuary.However,the high concentration of suspended material makes it difficult to measure the partial pressure of CO_2(pCO_2) in these regions.Therefore,very little data is available on the pCO_2 levels in TMZs.To relatively accurately evaluate the CO_2 flux in an example estuary,we studied the TMZ and surrounding area in the Changjiang(Yangtze) River estuary.From seasonal cruises during February,August,November 2010,and May 2012,the pCO_2 in the TMZ and surrounding area was calculated from pH and total alkalinity(TA)measured in situ,from which the CO_2 flux was calculated.Overall,the TMZ and surrounding area acted as a source of atmosphere CO_2 in February and November,and as a sink in May and August.The average FCO_2was-9,-16,5,and 5 mmol/(m^2·d) in May,August,November,and February,respectively.The TMZ's role as a source or sink of atmosphere CO_2 was quite different to the outer estuary.In the TMZ and surrounding area,suspended matter,phytoplankton,and pH were the main factors controlling the FCO_2,but here the influence of temperature,salinity,and total alkalinity on the FCO_2 was weak.Organic carbon decomposition in suspended matter was the main reason for the region acting as a CO_2 source in winter,and phytoplankton production was the main reason the region was a CO_2 sink in summer.