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基于季节性因素影响的汽车销量预测模型研究及应用 被引量:1
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作者 蓝晨卉 李卓 +2 位作者 任俊杰 郭水萍 赵彩金 《时代汽车》 2023年第14期163-166,共4页
为提高企业短中期销量预测精度,本文提出了一种基于月实际销量驱动的高精度销量预测模型--MAAR模型(Monthly adjusted annual rate),该预测模型综合考虑趋势性影响、季节性波动影响及专家经验,并采用数字化手段进行销量预测模型系统开... 为提高企业短中期销量预测精度,本文提出了一种基于月实际销量驱动的高精度销量预测模型--MAAR模型(Monthly adjusted annual rate),该预测模型综合考虑趋势性影响、季节性波动影响及专家经验,并采用数字化手段进行销量预测模型系统开发。通过在企业的实际运用,研究结果表明此销量预测模型的预测精确度较高,证明了该预测模型的可行性。 展开更多
关键词 汽车销量 销量预测 季节性波动因素 趋势性因素 短期预测
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Pulling Vs. Pushing:Effect of Climatic Factors on Periodical Fluctuation of Russian and South Korean Tourist Demand in Hainan Island,China 被引量:1
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作者 CHEN Fan LIU Jun GE Quansheng 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2017年第4期648-659,共12页
While climate is an important factor attracting tourists to certain destinations,it can also motivate people residing in a country with a harsh climate to move to another location.By applying X-12 decompositions and a... While climate is an important factor attracting tourists to certain destinations,it can also motivate people residing in a country with a harsh climate to move to another location.By applying X-12 decompositions and a panel data regression analysis,this study analyzes the pull and push effects of climatic seasonal factors between destination(Hainan Island,China) and source countries(Russia and South Korea).The findings show that climatic seasonal factors have significant pulling and pushing effects on seasonal patterns of tourism demand,with temperature being the main factor.Furthermore,the number of paid vacation days in the source country affects that country's sensitivity to climatic seasonal factors;countries with a higher numbers of paid vacation days are more sensitive to climatic conditions.Lastly,future global warming may causes the aforementioned pull and push effects to abate,which will have an unavoidable influence on tourism industries. 展开更多
关键词 seasonality climate tourism demand Hainan Island China
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