汽车生产的季节性波动

汽车生产的季节性波动对汽车工业的均衡稳定生产有不利的影响,但是这种波动又是客观存在的,无法避免,只能认真研究这种波动的规律,充分考虑造成生产波动的因素,深入细致地进行市场调查研究,根据市场需求变化及时调整生产作业计划,掌握生产的主动性。

非线性季节型航空公司客运收入的组合预测方法

针对航空公司的客运收入同时具有增长性趋势和季节波动性特征,使得客运收入的变化呈现出复杂的非线性组合特点,依据灰色预测GM(1,1)模型原理,建立客运收入预测模型,以反映其增长性趋势的特点,建立客运收入季节变动预测模型,以反映其季节波动性特点,最终形成非线性季节型客运收入组合预测模型。航空公司客运收入的预测结果表明,预测值与实际值误差小于1%,该模型有效、可行。

一种直流配电网中换流站的选址定容方法

为了更精确地确定换流站的站址和配置换流站的容量,对直流配电网换流站选址定容进行了研究。利用数理统计方法分析光伏电池与风力发电机的实测功率数据,得出光伏电池和风力发电机的四季出力时序曲线,以分布式电源接入造价和负荷距最小为目标函数确定规划区分布式电源的位置。对传统负荷距模型进行改进,计及规划区内负荷大小、负荷性质、负荷同时使用率、地理环境等影响因素。同时考虑分布式电源的季节波动性,提出了一种改进的负荷距模型。利用遗传算法对该模型进行寻优,进而确定换流站的站址与容量。该方法可供相关工程技术研究人员参考。

基于灰色BP神经网络的我国工业增加值预测研究

针对我国工业增加值存在季节波动性等外部因素影响其预测准确性不高的问题,提出了一种基于灰色BP神经网络的工业增加值预测算法,即采用以我国2008~2017年各季度工业增加值数据作为时间序列建立的灰色BP神经网络预测模型进行预测。结果表明,采用灰色BP神经网络组合模型预测的精度较灰色模型和BP神经网络模型精度分别提升了0.94%~4.98%和0.01%~0.08%,稳定性分别提升了1.43%~2.97%和0.03%~0.05%。此实验结果验证了灰色BP神经网络组合模型可以有效预测我国工业增加值的发展趋势,进而为政府部门制定工业发展政策提供有效依据。

Phytoplankton community structure in reservoirs of different trophic status, Northeast China

The aim of this study was to determine the phytoplankton community structures of reservoirs of different trophic status, located in a cold region. Physical and chemical variables and the phytoplankton communities were investigated in two reservoirs (Xiquanyan Reservoir and Taoshan Reservoir) in Northeast China in 2009. The two reservoirs showed strong seasonal fluctuations in their physical and chemical composition. Results of the trophic status index indicated that Xiaquanyan Reservoir was mesotrophic, whilst Taoshan Reservoir was eutrophic. Diatoms were the dominant phytoplankton group in Xiquanyan Reservoir throughout all seasons of the study, while in Taoshan Reservoir, diatoms dominated in spring, and cyanobacteria dominated in summer and autumn. This difference was resulted from differences in local environmental factors, including nutrients and hydrology. This study suggests that in mesotrophic reservoirs, nutrients played a key role in controlling seasonal phytoplankton successions, whereas in eutrophic reservoirs water temperature was the key factor in a cold region. Notably, the dominant species in summer in the Taoshan Reservoir was Microcystis, which may produce toxins depending on the ambient conditions, and presenting a risk of local toxin contamination.

Anomozamites(Bennettitales) from Middle Jurassic Haifanggou Formation,western Liaoning,China

The Middle Jurassic Hangfanggou Formation is well exposed in Shangsanjiao and Xiasanjiao villages area,Baimashi town of Huludao,western Liaoning,China.Recently,abundant fossil plants were collected from the Hangfanggou Formation.One new species,Anomozamites sanjiaocunensis sp.nov.(Bennettitales),is described in this study.This is the first report of the genus Anomozamites from the Haifanggou Formation based upon the leaf morphology and epidermal structures.The discovery of the new species extends significantly the stratigraphic and geographic distribution of Anomozamites in the Middle Jurassic.It also shows that Anomozamites was a common member of Bennettitales once lived in the Middle Jurassic warm temperate region.The new species also improves the knowledge on understanding the leaf morphology,epidermal features and the diversity of Anomozamites during the Middle Jurassic.The epidermal characters of the new species and its associated plants reveal that the plants grew in a warm and moderately humid environment in the warm temperate zone.The presence of some deciduous plants,such as ginkgoaleans,czekanowskialeans and conifers,indicate the climate with seasonal fluctuations in temperature.

EFFECTS OF SEASONALITY ON STREAMFLOW AND WATER QUALITY OF THE PINANG RIVER IN PENANG ISLAND,MALAYSIA

For the Pinang River, originating in the western highlands of Penang Island, the nature, sources and extent of pollution were studied. The river water samples collected at five selected sites were analyzed for various physical and chemical parameters, namely temperature, DO, BOD, COD, SS, pH, ammoniac nitrogen (AN), and conductance, Long-term data of rainfall and temperature were analyzed to determine the seasonal variations of the streamflow. The streamflow during the dry season is extremely low compared to the wet season, thus concentrations of contaminants derived from point pollution source increase due to lack of rainfall and runoff events. On the contrary, in the predominantly urban and agricultural catchments, non-point pollution source increases during rainy season through seepage and runoff. Effects of seasonal variations consequently determine the quantity and quality of the water parameters. The Jelutong River, the Dondang River and the Air Itam River carry the seepage from widely urban and residential areas to the main Pinang River systems. Water quality of the Pinang River at different points assessed by the water quality indices was compared. According to the quality indices during the study period, water quality in the upper reaches of the river is medium to good. It dwindled in the plains, due to the seepage from urban areas and discharges from the industrial and agricultural lands.

Clay Fraction Distribution in the Sediments of the Senegal River Estuary after the Diama （Senegal） Dam Construction

Clay fraction contents distribution in the Senegal River estuary after the building of the anti-salt Diama dam has shown that upstream sediments are very muddy. Clay fraction content is as high as 60 % of sediments in the middle of the channel with a pronounced downstream decreasing trend on the banks comparing to the contents in the middle of the channel. Towards the river mouth, the fine fraction tends to disappear leading to a shelly sand sediment type essentially. During low water period, clay fraction contents increase particularly at the vicinity of the dam reservoir. In the estuarine reach, downstream the dam, this increasing trend during the low water stage is particularly marked in the middle of the channel. The clay mineral assemblage shows that kaolinite and smectite are the main components, whereas interlayered illite-smectite and illite are minor constituents. The upstream-downstream profile shows a decrease in kaolinite content although it remains the dominant constituent. Floating clay minerals （smectite and illite-smectite） concentrate rather in the middle of the channel and on the right bank where the water depth is higher. According to seasonal variations, the distribution of these clay minerals often follows the concentration of the entire clay fraction; their contents increase during low water stage period. This hydrodynamics sorting of floating minerals, evident in the up-dam zone, tends to disappear in the eastern reach between Diama dam and the mouth. Clay minerals assemblage shows, through the time, a rather homogeneous composition which does not seem to be altered by the seasonal fluctuations.

Profile and Character of Atmospheric Structure Constant of Refractive Index C_n^2

Random fluctuations of turbulence bring random fluctuations of the refractive index, making the atmosphere a random fluctuation medium that destroys the coherence of light-waves. Research in atmospheric turbulence is actually the investigation of the atmospheric refractive index. The atmospheric structure constant of refractive index, C n 2 , is an important parameter denoting atmospheric turbulence. In this paper, C n 2 is measured during the day and at night and in all four seasons using a high sensitivity micro-thermal meter QHTP-2. The vertical profile of C n 2 in Hefei (0-30 km) is investigated by the analysis of experimental data. The average profile of C n 2 in Hefei exhibits conspicuous day and night differences with increased altitude. The distribution of log(C n 2 ) is nearly normal and has conspicuous seasonal differences.

Modeling the transmission of Buruli ulcer in fluctuating environments

The transmission dynamics of Buruli ulcer （BU） largely depends on environmental changes. In this paper a deterministic model for the transmission of BU in fluctuating environments is proposed. The model incorporates periodicity in the disease transmission pathways and the Mycobacterium ulcerans density that are thought to vary seasonally. Two reproduction numbers, the time-averaged reproduction number [R0l and the basic reproduction number R0, are determined and compared. It is shown that the time-averaged reproduction underestimates the number of infections. Numerical simulations confirmed that if R0 〉 1 the infection is sustained seasonally. The model outcome suggests that environmental fluctuations should be taken into consideration in designing policies aimed at BU control and management.

CHAOS ANALYSIS AND CONTROL FOR A CLASS OF SIR EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH SEASONAL FLUCTUATION

In this paper, the problems of chaos and chaos control for a class of susceptible-infected- removed （SIR） epidemic model with seasonal fluctuation are investigated. The season- ality in outbreak is natural among infectious diseases, as the common influenza, A type H1N1 influenza and so on. It is shown that there exist chaotic phenomena in the epidemic model. Furthermore, the tracking control method is used to control chaotic motions in the epidemic model. A feedback controller is designed to achieve tracking of an ideal out- put. Thus, the density of infected individuals can converge to zero, in other words, thedisease can be disappeared. Finally, numerical simulations illustrate that the controller is effective.