由卫星高度计数据确定南海长周期分潮及季节环流

应用1993～2002年的Topex／poseidon卫星高度计数据，经沿迹潮汐调和分析方法，提取Sa分潮调和常数。由调和常数内插得到南海及邻近海域分潮波模型。根据潮汐模型计算了各季节平均海面距平并进而计算了平均季节环流，初步分析了海面高变化和季节环流的特征。

北半球春季平流层环流季节转换研究的若干进展

简要总结了近年来北半球春季平流层环流季节转换研究的若干进展 ,涉及平流层环流季节转换的特征、某些影响因素、与对流层环流的关系及平流层环流季节转换的应用。由于平流层季节转换早于对流层 ,其深入研究可为短期气候预测提供线索。

中国西南区域雨季开始和结束日期划分标准的研究

为了更好地开展区域关键期气候监测业务,满足国家级气象服务的需求,本文从区域角度出发,利用1961～2011年西南地区92个气象观测站的逐日雨量资料和1981～2010年美国国家环境预报中心和国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)逐日的高低层大气环流再分析资料,研究了西南区域雨季开始和结束日期定义的标准问题。结果表明西南区域多年平均雨季开始日期在5月3候(27候),结束日期在10月3候(57候),季节转换期间高低层环流的突变特征进一步表明了该结论的合理性。并通过对多种雨季开始和结束日期判断标准的对比分析,最终提出了西南雨季开始和结束日期的划分标准。同时,对影响西南地区雨季开始和结束日期变化的机理也进行了初步的讨论。

一次典型梅雨锋锋面结构分析

1999年梅雨期在长江中下游维持着一条典型的梅雨锋 ,锋面和梅雨雨带呈东西走向 ,从中国的四川省一直延伸到日本。锋面两侧的温度及湿度对比明显 ,并且其上有数个中间尺度的低涡沿梅雨锋依次向东移动发展 ,在长江中下游造成严重的梅雨暴雨和洪涝。文中分析了 1999年这次典型梅雨锋的锋面结构。结果表明 ,从温度场看 ,由于梅雨区对流和降水的显著发展 ,梅雨锋的低层温度对比几近消失 ,其中上部仍具有典型的上宽下窄的锋面结构 ,锋面随高度向北倾斜。在低层经向温度场呈现复杂的暖 -冷 -暖的结构 ,即北部华北平原为地面感热加热造成的相对较暖的变性极地大陆气团 ,中间为冷空气南下和降水冷却造成的相对较冷的梅雨区 ,南部是相对较暖的热带海洋气团。在这种温度场下 ,由北部低层变性暖气团与梅雨区偏冷空气形成了明显的温度对比区 ,文中定义这个区域为梅雨赤道锋。因而 ,在低层东亚梅雨区的锋区结构由梅雨赤道锋和减弱的梅雨锋构成。在 6 0 0hPa以上前者消失 ,只有单一的极锋型的梅雨锋结构。在此分析的基础上文中给出了东亚梅雨期锋面结构模型图。另外还指出 ,从假相当位温场分析 ,主要表现出梅雨区的深厚对流。降雨引起了高θse带及其南北高θse梯度区 ,其北侧高θse梯度区大致相当于梅雨锋 。

华南前汛期开始和结束日期的划分

本文利用48年(1957～2004年)中国站点逐日降水资料和同期NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料,研究了华南前汛期的开始和结束时间的划分问题.首先,选择了研究华南前汛期问题的区域和代表站点,然后对降水量、水汽(可降水量,水汽通量,水汽通量散度)、垂直速度和假相当位温等物理量的演变特征进行分析,发现:前汛期起、止前后上述要素均有阶段性的突变.其中4月第1候(19候)是华南前汛期的开始,可降水量、水汽通量和假相当位温等增加显著,对流开始活跃,水汽通量散度也由辐散变为辐合,降水量明显增加.但4月份总体雨量不强,主要为锋面降水.5月份随夏季风爆发,水汽继续增加,对流活跃,进入季风降水阶段;夏季风降水盛期时段主要集中在6月份.6月第4候(34候)前汛期结束,各降水指标骤减.然后根据降水和环流指标,提出了华南前汛期开始和结束日期的划分标准,定义了逐年的开始和结束日期.最后对华南前汛期开始期之前、之后以及结束期之前、之后的大气环流背景做了对比分析.指出,前汛期开始前,环流形势有利于华南地区增暖增湿;开始期以后则有利于冷空气南下,造成连续降水,使华南进入前汛期.而前汛期的结束,则是由于东亚大气环流的季节调整,尤其是西太平洋副热带高压的第一次北跳所造成的.

我国青藏高原气候动力学研究的近期进展

文章回顾了我国在青藏高原气象学的基础上发展起来的青藏高原气候动力学研究的近期进展 ;指出了青藏高原“感热驱动气泵 (SHAP)”在调制东亚季风及全球气候中的重要作用 ;在强调全球海陆分布所产生的“四叶型”加热LOSECOD激发出夏季副热带基本环流型的基础上指出高原的隆升增强了东亚季风的北伸 ;论述与青藏高原抬升相联系的高原负涡度源所激发的Rossby波对全球气候异常的影响 ,指出春季青藏高原的表面感热加热是造成东亚环流季节突变的重要原因 ,并导致亚洲夏季风首先在孟加拉湾东部地区爆发 ;

THREE-DIMENSIONAL BAROCLINIC NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA CIRCULATION'S SEASONAL CHARACTERISTICS II. MIDDLE AND DEEP CIRCULATION

A three-dimensional baroclinic shelf sea model’s numerical simulation of the South China Sea (SCS) middle and deep layer circulation structure showed that: 1. In the SCS middle and deep layer, a southward boundary current exists along the east shore of the Indo-China Peninsula all year long. A cyclonic eddy (gyre) is formed by the current in the above sea areas except in the middle layer in spring, when an anticyclonic eddy exists on the eastern side of the current. In the deep layer, a large-scale anticyclonic eddy often exists in the sea areas between the Zhongsha Islands and west shore of southern Luzon Island. 2. In the middle layer in summer and autumn, and in the deep layer in autumn and winter, there is an anticyclonic eddy (gyre) in the northeastern SCS, while in the middle layer in winter and spring, and in the deep layer in spring and summer, there is a cyclonic one. 3. In the middle layer, there is a weak northeastward current in the Nansha Trough in spring and summer, while in autumn and winter it evolves into an anticyclonic eddy (gyre), which then spreads westward to the whole western Nansha Islands sea areas.

Improved EOF-based bias correction method for seasonal forecasts and its application in IAP AGCM4.1

An effective improvement on the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)–based bias correctionmethod for seasonal forecasts is proposed in this paper,by introducing a stepwise regression method into the process of EOF time series correction.Using 30-year(1981–2010)hindcast results from IAP AGCM4.1(the latest version of this model),the improved method is validated for the prediction of summer(June–July–August)rainfall anomalies in Southeast China.The results in terms of the pattern correction coefficient(PCC)of rainfall anomalies shows that the 30-year-averaged prediction skill improves from 0.01 to 0.06 with the original correction method,and to 0.29 using the improved method.The applicability in real-time prediction is also investigated,using 2016 summer rainfall prediction as a test case.With a PCC of 0.59,the authors find that the new correction method significantly improves the prediction skill;the PCC using the direct prediction of the model is?0.04,and using the old bias correction method it is 0.37.

Wave Effect on the Ocean Circulations Through Mass Transport and Wave-Induced Pumping

The wave Coriolis-Stokes-Force-modified ocean momentum equations are reviewed in this paper and the wave Stokes transport is pointed out to be part of the ocean circulations. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis data(ERA-40 data) and the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation(SODA) version 2.2.4 data, the magnitude of this transport is compared with that of wind-driven Sverdrup transport and a 5-to-10-precent contribution by the wave Stokes transport is found. Both transports are stronger in boreal winter than in summers. The wave effect can be either contribution or cancellation in different seasons. Examination with Kuroshio transport verifies similar seasonal variations. The clarification of the efficient wave boundary condition helps to understand the role of waves in mass transport. It acts as surface wind stress and can be functional down to the bottom of the ageostrophic layer. The pumping velocities resulting from wave-induced stress are zonally distributed and are significant in relatively high latitudes. Further work will focus on the model performance of the wave-stress-changed-boundary and the role of swells in the eastern part of the oceans.

Typical Surface Seasonal Circulation in the Indian Ocean Derived from Argos Floats

This study investigates the surface circulation in the Indian Ocean using Argos float data over the period 1979-2011.The Argos observations manifest some new phenomena.The climatological annual mean circulation shows that the surface current becomes much stronger after turning around in shore in the western Indian Ocean.In the tropical Indian Ocean,the Great Whirl(GW) to the east of Somalia develops quickly in spring(April-May) as the monsoon reverses to move northward,becoming strongest in summer(June-September) and disappearing in autumn(October-November).The west end of the Agulhas retroflection can reach 18°E,and it exhibits a seasonal variation.At approximately 90°E,the Agulhas Return Current combines with the eastward South Atlantic Current and finally joins the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.

Simulation of the western North Pacific subtropical high in El Ni?o decaying summers by CMIP5 AGCMs

The performances of CMIP5 atmospheric general circulation models （AGCMs） in simulating the western North Pacific subtropical high （WNPSH） in El Nino decaying summers are examined in this study. Results show that most models can reproduce the spatial pattern of both climatological and anomalous circulation associated with the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers. Most CMIP5 AGCMs can capture the westward shift of the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers compared with the climatological location. With respect to the sub-seasonal variation of the WNPSH, the performances of these AGCMs in reproducing the northward jump of the WNPSH are better than simulating the eastward retreat of the WNPSH from July to August. Twenty-one out of twenty-two （20 out of 22） models can reasonably reproduce the northward jump of the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers （climatology）, while only 7 out of 22 （8 out of 22） AGCMs can reasonably reproduce the eastward retreat of the WNPSH in El Nino decaying summers （climatology）. In addition, there is a close connection between the climatological WNPSH location bias and that in El Nino decaying summers.

The Seasonal Variations of the Climatic Circulation of the Black Sea along the Axis of Divergence Zone

The spatial position, seasonal variability and intensity of the main flow and the cyclonic circulation of the Black Sea waters along the axis of the divergence were identified. Corresponding calculations were done with using of the dynamic method and based on the climate data set of temperature and salinity for the surface and intermediate layers of the Black Sea. The important role of spring floods on the rivers of the northern-western Black Sea in the development of the water circulation features was shown because this river＇s water and main Black Sea current interact with the periphery of the western and eastern cyclonic circulation. This process is dominated at the western part sea surface cyclone： in spring and at eastern, in summer and autumn. The flow rate and nature of seasonal migration cyclonic centers were estimated. The results of research are based on a relatively large scale （40＇ latitude and 60＇ longitude） averaging and we have identified the main area of water divergence. Small, localized areas of convergence and divergence of flow that are presented in the Black Sea were not included into the scope of our research.

Preliminary evaluation of MJO simulation in GAMIL3(Grid-point atmospheric model of IAP LASG)

This study evaluates the performance of the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG,version 3(GAMIL3),in simulating the Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO),based on the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)AMIP(Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)simulation.Results show that GAMIL3 reasonably captures the main features of the MJO,such as the eastward-propagating signal in the MJO frequency band,the symmetric and asymmetric structures of the MJO,several convectively coupled equatorial waves,and the MJO life cycle.However,GAMIL3 underestimates the MJO amplitude,especially for outgoing longwave radiation,as do most CMIP5 models,and simulates slow eastward propagation.

MJO potential predictability and predictive skill in IAP AGCM 4.1

A 30-year hindcast was performed using version 4.1 of the IAP AGCM（IAP AGCM4.1）, and its potential predictability of the MJO was then evaluated. The results showed that the potential predictability of the MJO is 13 and 24 days, evaluated using the signal-to-error ratio method based on a single member and the ensemble mean, respectively. However, the MJO prediction skill is only9 and 10 days using the two methods mentioned above. It was further found that the potential predictability and prediction skill depend on the MJO amplitude in the initial conditions. Prediction initiated from conditions with a strong MJO amplitude tends to be more skillful. Together with the results of other measures, the current MJO prediction ability of IAP AGCM4.1 is around 10 days, which is much lower than other climate prediction systems. Furthermore, the smaller difference between the MJO predictability and prediction skill evaluated by a single member and the ensemble mean methods could be ascribed to the relatively smaller size of the ensemble member of the model.Therefore, considerable effort should be made to improve MJO prediction in IAP AGCM4.1 through application of a reasonable model initialization and ensemble forecast strategy.

Seasonal timing of stratospheric final warming associated with the intensity of stratospheric sudden warming in preceding winter

The association of seasonal timing of stratospheric final warming events(SFWs) in spring and the occurrence of major and minor stratospheric sudden warming events(SSWs) in midwinter were investigated through statistical analysis, parallel comparison, and composite analysis, based on the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset covering 1958–2012. It was found that the intensity and occurrence of winter SSW events can largely affect the timing of spring SFWs. Specifically, the SFW onset dates tend to be later(earlier) after the occurrence(absence) of winter major SSWs. However, the occurrence or absence of minor SSWs does not change the frequency of early and late SFWs. A parallel comparison of the temporal evolution of the anomalous circulation and planetary-waves between major SSW and minor SSW winters indicates that the stratospheric polar vortex(polar jet) will keep being anomalously stronger 30 days after major SSW onset. And the associated significant negative Eliassen-Palm(EP) flux anomalies can persist for as long as 45 days after major SSW events. In contrast, the circulation anomalies around the occurrence of minor SSW events can last only a few days. To further verify the possible influence of the occurrence of major SSWs on the seasonal timing of SFWs, composite analysis was performed respectively for the 21 major-SSW years, 15 minor-SSW years, and the 15 non-SSW years. Generally, planetary-wave activity in the extratropical stratosphere tends to be stronger(weaker) and the westerly polar jet is anomalously weaker(stronger) in major-SSW(non-SSW) winters. But in the following spring, the planetary-wave activity is weaker(stronger) accompanied with an anomalously stronger(weaker) stratospheric polar vortex. In spring after minor-SSW years, however, the stratospheric polar vortex and the westerly polar jet exhibit a state close to climatology with relatively gentle variations.

A comparative study of the atmospheric circulations associated with rainy-season floods between the Yangtze and Huaihe River Basins

Here we present the results from the composite analyses of the atmospheric circulations and physical quantity fields associated with rainy-season for the selected floods cases over the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins for the 21 years(1990–2010),using the daily rain gauge measurements taken in the 756 stations throughout China and the NCEP/reanalysis data for the rainyseasons(June–July)from 1990 to 2010.The major differences in the atmospheric circulations and physical quantity fields between the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins are as follows:for flooding years of the Yangtze River Basin,the South Asia high center is located further east than normal,the blocking high over the Urals and the Sea of Okhotsk maintains,and the Meiyu front is situated near 30°N whereas for flooding years of the Huaihe River Basin,the South Asia high center is further west than normal,the atmospheric circulations over the mid and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere are of meridional distribution,and the Meiyu front is situated near 33°N.In addition,there are distinct differences in water vapor sources and associated transports between the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins.The water vapor is transported by southwesterly flows from the Bay of Bengal and monsoon flows over the South China Sea for flooding years of the Yangtze River Basin whereas by southeast monsoons from the eastern and southern seas off China and monsoon flows over the South China Sea for flooding years of the Huaihe River Basin.