This study assesses potential effects of adaption to climate change in the future as a carbon related value using a baseline and credit approach, considering the implementation of the Reducing Emissions from Deforesta...This study assesses potential effects of adaption to climate change in the future as a carbon related value using a baseline and credit approach, considering the implementation of the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation （REDD） mechanism. Basic data were obtained for implementing the REDD mechanism in the Democratic People＇s Republic of Korea （DPRK） for scientific decision-making to prevent deforestation and forest degradation. The potential effects according to the implementation of the REDD mechanism in the DPRK based on forest status data （the latest） are as follows. If the deforestation rate is reduced to a level below 6% through a 20-year REDD mechanism beginning in 2011, 0.01-11.64 C-tons of carbon credit per ha could be issued for DPRK. Converted into C02-tons per ha, this amounts to 0.03-42.68 C02-tons, which translates to a minimum of 226,000 CO2-tons and a maximum of 289,082,000 C02-tons overall for forests in DPRK. In terms of carbon price, this measures up to 1.1o million USD- 1.4 billion USD, considering that the REDD carbon price in voluntary carbon markets in 2010 was around 5 USD.展开更多
Escalation of commitment has been linked to losses in information systems （IS） projects. Understanding the nature and the rationality of escalation allows the firm to promote optimal project management practices. Th...Escalation of commitment has been linked to losses in information systems （IS） projects. Understanding the nature and the rationality of escalation allows the firm to promote optimal project management practices. This study takes an inter-disciplinary approach and draws on research from economics and management to create a model of irrational escalation and a model of rational escalation. The forces that contribute to irrational escalation include the responsibility of the same manager for both the project selection and project continuation decisions that create proneness to self-justification, the potential for negative framing of decision options due to large sunk costs, the proximity of project completion and the presence of organizational inertia. Identifying these irrational escalation factors helps design appropriate de-escalation techniques. The rational escalation model draws on the real option theory and the bandit process theory to identify conditions when project continuation is justified by the value of information and the value of flexibility that the firm receives from continuing the project.展开更多
in recent years, as the project of our country is increasing, investment growth, put forward new challenges to investment in construction projects. Research from the research status of investment in construction, the ...in recent years, as the project of our country is increasing, investment growth, put forward new challenges to investment in construction projects. Research from the research status of investment in construction, the implementation process in accordance with the construction project, followed by analysis of the construction project investment the currently existing problems, and puts forward the implementation of the project the whole process as the main line, to scientific decision-making, rational design, bidding, construction control standard and completion of review strategies as the core.展开更多
The aim of this paper is to look at some important educational aspects of complexity decision making m a mummsc^pnnary manner from the perspective of General Systems Theory （GST）. First, the major issues involved in...The aim of this paper is to look at some important educational aspects of complexity decision making m a mummsc^pnnary manner from the perspective of General Systems Theory （GST）. First, the major issues involved in complexity management and decision making are summarized as they are viewed in literature, and a review of GST and Systems Thinking is given. The discussion in the paper is developed within the context of GST in general, but concentrated on decision making in the three trends of GST： Operations Research, Cybernetics, and Managerial Cybernetics. Here, the role of Cybernetics in complexity decision making is particularly emphasized. The discussion is then extended to the latest developments in complexity decision making in Science of Complexity and Soft Systems Thinking. The study also includes a framework which is expected to guide instructors who are planning to offer contemporary courses on decision making. The framework provides some clues for assessing the level of complexity for a given situation and selecting the appropriate methodology for solution development.展开更多
China's aerospace industry is facing a major task of increasing the reform of aerospace management system and speeding up civil-military integration, which leads to an urgent demand for new aerospace think tank pr...China's aerospace industry is facing a major task of increasing the reform of aerospace management system and speeding up civil-military integration, which leads to an urgent demand for new aerospace think tank products. Thankfully, with "information space" as the carrier, the "systems science" as the guidance, and QIAN Xuesen's "metasynthetic wisdom system" as the core, QIAN Xuesen think tank provides the decision support for China to develop an aerospace knowledge economy and to continuously enhance the "space soft power". In this paper, the framework of the meta-synthetic wisdom system guided by systems science is presented, the relationship between basic ideas of QIAN Xuesen think tank and meta-synthetic wisdom system is explained and the construction items of aerospace hall of the workshop for meta-synthetic engineering(aerospace HWMSE) are analyzed.展开更多
Loss assessment and decision-making are essential for earthquake emergency rescues,and for scientific prediction of seismic damage and determination of rescue objectives.In practice,however,there exist some problems,s...Loss assessment and decision-making are essential for earthquake emergency rescues,and for scientific prediction of seismic damage and determination of rescue objectives.In practice,however,there exist some problems,such as basic data not being precise and rich enough and decision making not having systematic and complete criteria.This paper tries to solve these problems using the method of data indexation by constructing an index system for earthquake emergency loss assessment and decision-making.展开更多
We consider a behavioural model of an animal choosing between two activities, based on positive feedback, and exa- mine the effect of introducing cross inhibition between the motivations for the two activities. While ...We consider a behavioural model of an animal choosing between two activities, based on positive feedback, and exa- mine the effect of introducing cross inhibition between the motivations for the two activities. While cross-inhibition has pre- viously been included in models of decision making, the question of what benefit it may provide to an animal＇s activity selection behaviour has not previously been studied. In neuroscience and in collective behaviour cross-inhibition, and other equivalent means of coupling evidence-accumulating pathways, have been shown to approximate statistically-optimal decision-making and to adaptively break deadlock, thereby improving decision performance. Switching between activities is an ongoing decision process yet here we also find that cross-inhibition robustly improves its efficiency, by reducing the frequency of costly switches between behaviours .展开更多
The decision-making system is the backbone of China＇s political system and a crucial factor determining its development. The decision-making system with the CPC lying at the core results from the CPC＇s long history ...The decision-making system is the backbone of China＇s political system and a crucial factor determining its development. The decision-making system with the CPC lying at the core results from the CPC＇s long history of leading China＇s revolution and establishing the People＇s Republic of China; therefore it has historical rationality. Decision-making was centralized over the period from the foundation of the PRC to reform and opening up. This centralized decision-making system had faults such as a low level of specialized division oflabor, low institutionalization, an undue emphasis on experience, a closed decision-making process and the absence of any self-correcting and adjustment mechanisms. The reform of China＇s decision-making system in the post-reform period has attached much importance to promoting democratic, scientific and law-based decision-making with regard to decision~ making structures, modes and mechanisms. Practice proves that this reform has successfully met the challenges arising from rapid social and economic transition. Viewed from the perspective of political development, it involves an evolution from personal to democratic, from experience-based to scientific, from centralized to decentralized, from closed to open, from passive to active participation and from non-institutionalized to institutionalized decision-making. A decision-making model has gradually taken shape that is characterized by CPC domination, participation by multiple entities, scientific proof, open process, and law-based operation.展开更多
Integrated River Basin Management(IRBM)has been a long discussed way to sustainably manage water and land resources;yet,very few examples of effective IRBM are found because there is a lack of sufficient scientific su...Integrated River Basin Management(IRBM)has been a long discussed way to sustainably manage water and land resources;yet,very few examples of effective IRBM are found because there is a lack of sufficient scientific support,as well as institutional accommodation,to successfully implement it.This paper overviews the major challenges with IRBM,the promising scientific approaches for the implementation of IRBM,and the areas of needed research,with considerable issues and experiences from China.It is expected that novel research will draw together disparate disciplines into an integrated scientific framework,upon which better modeling tools,stakeholder involvement,and decision-making support can be built.Cutting-edge new technologies will bring ideas of IRBM forward to theory and finally to practice.The paper will prompt scientists to undertake research to fill in the gaps in the current IRBM knowledge base and provide practitioners guidance on how to incorporate scientifically based information within the IRBM decision process.展开更多
文摘This study assesses potential effects of adaption to climate change in the future as a carbon related value using a baseline and credit approach, considering the implementation of the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation （REDD） mechanism. Basic data were obtained for implementing the REDD mechanism in the Democratic People＇s Republic of Korea （DPRK） for scientific decision-making to prevent deforestation and forest degradation. The potential effects according to the implementation of the REDD mechanism in the DPRK based on forest status data （the latest） are as follows. If the deforestation rate is reduced to a level below 6% through a 20-year REDD mechanism beginning in 2011, 0.01-11.64 C-tons of carbon credit per ha could be issued for DPRK. Converted into C02-tons per ha, this amounts to 0.03-42.68 C02-tons, which translates to a minimum of 226,000 CO2-tons and a maximum of 289,082,000 C02-tons overall for forests in DPRK. In terms of carbon price, this measures up to 1.1o million USD- 1.4 billion USD, considering that the REDD carbon price in voluntary carbon markets in 2010 was around 5 USD.
文摘Escalation of commitment has been linked to losses in information systems （IS） projects. Understanding the nature and the rationality of escalation allows the firm to promote optimal project management practices. This study takes an inter-disciplinary approach and draws on research from economics and management to create a model of irrational escalation and a model of rational escalation. The forces that contribute to irrational escalation include the responsibility of the same manager for both the project selection and project continuation decisions that create proneness to self-justification, the potential for negative framing of decision options due to large sunk costs, the proximity of project completion and the presence of organizational inertia. Identifying these irrational escalation factors helps design appropriate de-escalation techniques. The rational escalation model draws on the real option theory and the bandit process theory to identify conditions when project continuation is justified by the value of information and the value of flexibility that the firm receives from continuing the project.
文摘in recent years, as the project of our country is increasing, investment growth, put forward new challenges to investment in construction projects. Research from the research status of investment in construction, the implementation process in accordance with the construction project, followed by analysis of the construction project investment the currently existing problems, and puts forward the implementation of the project the whole process as the main line, to scientific decision-making, rational design, bidding, construction control standard and completion of review strategies as the core.
文摘The aim of this paper is to look at some important educational aspects of complexity decision making m a mummsc^pnnary manner from the perspective of General Systems Theory （GST）. First, the major issues involved in complexity management and decision making are summarized as they are viewed in literature, and a review of GST and Systems Thinking is given. The discussion in the paper is developed within the context of GST in general, but concentrated on decision making in the three trends of GST： Operations Research, Cybernetics, and Managerial Cybernetics. Here, the role of Cybernetics in complexity decision making is particularly emphasized. The discussion is then extended to the latest developments in complexity decision making in Science of Complexity and Soft Systems Thinking. The study also includes a framework which is expected to guide instructors who are planning to offer contemporary courses on decision making. The framework provides some clues for assessing the level of complexity for a given situation and selecting the appropriate methodology for solution development.
文摘China's aerospace industry is facing a major task of increasing the reform of aerospace management system and speeding up civil-military integration, which leads to an urgent demand for new aerospace think tank products. Thankfully, with "information space" as the carrier, the "systems science" as the guidance, and QIAN Xuesen's "metasynthetic wisdom system" as the core, QIAN Xuesen think tank provides the decision support for China to develop an aerospace knowledge economy and to continuously enhance the "space soft power". In this paper, the framework of the meta-synthetic wisdom system guided by systems science is presented, the relationship between basic ideas of QIAN Xuesen think tank and meta-synthetic wisdom system is explained and the construction items of aerospace hall of the workshop for meta-synthetic engineering(aerospace HWMSE) are analyzed.
基金sponsored by the National Science & Technology Support Program (2012BAK15B06-01)the Special Fund for Basic Scientific Research Operations in Institute of Geology,CEA (IGCEA1109)the National Science and Techonology Support Program,China (2008BAK50B03-07)
文摘Loss assessment and decision-making are essential for earthquake emergency rescues,and for scientific prediction of seismic damage and determination of rescue objectives.In practice,however,there exist some problems,such as basic data not being precise and rich enough and decision making not having systematic and complete criteria.This paper tries to solve these problems using the method of data indexation by constructing an index system for earthquake emergency loss assessment and decision-making.
文摘We consider a behavioural model of an animal choosing between two activities, based on positive feedback, and exa- mine the effect of introducing cross inhibition between the motivations for the two activities. While cross-inhibition has pre- viously been included in models of decision making, the question of what benefit it may provide to an animal＇s activity selection behaviour has not previously been studied. In neuroscience and in collective behaviour cross-inhibition, and other equivalent means of coupling evidence-accumulating pathways, have been shown to approximate statistically-optimal decision-making and to adaptively break deadlock, thereby improving decision performance. Switching between activities is an ongoing decision process yet here we also find that cross-inhibition robustly improves its efficiency, by reducing the frequency of costly switches between behaviours .
基金one of the projects of China-U.S. Political Science Scholars Forum funded by the China-U.S.Exchange Foundationa listed National Social Science Foundation Major Project entitled "A Study of the Promotion of Social Justice and Government Management," with project no. 10zd&040
文摘The decision-making system is the backbone of China＇s political system and a crucial factor determining its development. The decision-making system with the CPC lying at the core results from the CPC＇s long history of leading China＇s revolution and establishing the People＇s Republic of China; therefore it has historical rationality. Decision-making was centralized over the period from the foundation of the PRC to reform and opening up. This centralized decision-making system had faults such as a low level of specialized division oflabor, low institutionalization, an undue emphasis on experience, a closed decision-making process and the absence of any self-correcting and adjustment mechanisms. The reform of China＇s decision-making system in the post-reform period has attached much importance to promoting democratic, scientific and law-based decision-making with regard to decision~ making structures, modes and mechanisms. Practice proves that this reform has successfully met the challenges arising from rapid social and economic transition. Viewed from the perspective of political development, it involves an evolution from personal to democratic, from experience-based to scientific, from centralized to decentralized, from closed to open, from passive to active participation and from non-institutionalized to institutionalized decision-making. A decision-making model has gradually taken shape that is characterized by CPC domination, participation by multiple entities, scientific proof, open process, and law-based operation.
基金supported by U.S.National Science Foundation(Grant No.CBET-0747276)
文摘Integrated River Basin Management(IRBM)has been a long discussed way to sustainably manage water and land resources;yet,very few examples of effective IRBM are found because there is a lack of sufficient scientific support,as well as institutional accommodation,to successfully implement it.This paper overviews the major challenges with IRBM,the promising scientific approaches for the implementation of IRBM,and the areas of needed research,with considerable issues and experiences from China.It is expected that novel research will draw together disparate disciplines into an integrated scientific framework,upon which better modeling tools,stakeholder involvement,and decision-making support can be built.Cutting-edge new technologies will bring ideas of IRBM forward to theory and finally to practice.The paper will prompt scientists to undertake research to fill in the gaps in the current IRBM knowledge base and provide practitioners guidance on how to incorporate scientifically based information within the IRBM decision process.
