The Chinese government has set ambitious targets to reduce the per unit of GDP by 40% ~45% during 2005 to 2020 and achieve the intensity peaking of carbon emissions of CO2 emissions a- round 2030. The T21 national dev...The Chinese government has set ambitious targets to reduce the per unit of GDP by 40% ~45% during 2005 to 2020 and achieve the intensity peaking of carbon emissions of CO2 emissions a- round 2030. The T21 national development model for China was developed for the purpose of analy- zing the effects of long-term national policies that relate to carbon emissions, loss of farm land, water shortage, energy security, food security, and their contributions to this reduction target. The focus of this paper is on the policies that have substantial impacts on carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Four scenarios are developed with the model to simulate future carbon emissions ： 1 ） the BAU （ busi- ness as usual） scenario, showing the likely results of continuing current policies; 2 ） the TECH （technology） scenario showing the effects of more investment in renewable energy sources and promoting more energy efficient technologies; 3 ） the BEHAVIOR scenario, showing how government tax and price policies, together with public education programs, would instigate behaviour changes towards more sustainable living; and 4 ） the TECH＆BEHA scenario, which shows the results of combining scenarios 2 and 3. The simulation results show that CO2 emissions reduction targets of China are achievable, but also require great effort to put in.展开更多
Targeted observation is an observation strategy by which the concerned phenomenon is observed. In geoscienee, targeted ob- servation is mainly related to the forecasts of weather events or predictions of climate event...Targeted observation is an observation strategy by which the concerned phenomenon is observed. In geoscienee, targeted ob- servation is mainly related to the forecasts of weather events or predictions of climate events. This paper will first review the history of targeted observation, and then introduce the main methods used in targeted observation. The discussion on the theo- retical basis of targeted observation includes its advantages and limitations. After presenting the current situation of domestic and international targeted observations in atmospheric and oceanic sciences, the methods used for targeted observation, and their effect evaluation and testing are mainly discussed here. Finally, the author presents his suggestion about the prospect of further development in the field, and how to extend the method of targeted observation to deal with numerical model errors.展开更多
More than 87000 dams have been built in China,and about one third of them are risky projects.A number of high and ultra-high dams are being constructed in China's western region.The current dam construction practi...More than 87000 dams have been built in China,and about one third of them are risky projects.A number of high and ultra-high dams are being constructed in China's western region.The current dam construction practice tends to focus on socio-economic benefits and neglect the environment and ecology.Furthermore,periodic examinations are intended to ensure the structural safety of dams.This paper proposes a general evaluation principle for dam service.This principle stipulates that dam projects should have maximum socio-economic benefits and minimum negative effects on the environment and ecology.To satisfy the general principle of mutual harmony,socio-economic benefits,dam safety,environment,and ecology are analyzed,and the evaluation methods for dam service status are discussed.Then,a fusion algorithm of interlayer assessment is proposed on the basis of evidence theory and the fuzzy comprehensive analysis method.Finally,a comprehensive evaluation model is established.Example analysis shows that the proposed theories and methods can fulfill scientific assessment of the service status of dams.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Science&Technology Pillar Program(No.2012BAC20B09)
文摘The Chinese government has set ambitious targets to reduce the per unit of GDP by 40% ~45% during 2005 to 2020 and achieve the intensity peaking of carbon emissions of CO2 emissions a- round 2030. The T21 national development model for China was developed for the purpose of analy- zing the effects of long-term national policies that relate to carbon emissions, loss of farm land, water shortage, energy security, food security, and their contributions to this reduction target. The focus of this paper is on the policies that have substantial impacts on carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Four scenarios are developed with the model to simulate future carbon emissions ： 1 ） the BAU （ busi- ness as usual） scenario, showing the likely results of continuing current policies; 2 ） the TECH （technology） scenario showing the effects of more investment in renewable energy sources and promoting more energy efficient technologies; 3 ） the BEHAVIOR scenario, showing how government tax and price policies, together with public education programs, would instigate behaviour changes towards more sustainable living; and 4 ） the TECH＆BEHA scenario, which shows the results of combining scenarios 2 and 3. The simulation results show that CO2 emissions reduction targets of China are achievable, but also require great effort to put in.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41230420)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB417404)
文摘Targeted observation is an observation strategy by which the concerned phenomenon is observed. In geoscienee, targeted ob- servation is mainly related to the forecasts of weather events or predictions of climate events. This paper will first review the history of targeted observation, and then introduce the main methods used in targeted observation. The discussion on the theo- retical basis of targeted observation includes its advantages and limitations. After presenting the current situation of domestic and international targeted observations in atmospheric and oceanic sciences, the methods used for targeted observation, and their effect evaluation and testing are mainly discussed here. Finally, the author presents his suggestion about the prospect of further development in the field, and how to extend the method of targeted observation to deal with numerical model errors.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51139001,51179066,51079046,50909041)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (Grant No. NCET-10-0359)+1 种基金Jiangsu Province "333 High-Level Personnel Training Project" (Grant No. 2017-B08037)the Ministry of Water Resources Public Welfare Industry Research Special Fund Project (Grant No. 201201038)
文摘More than 87000 dams have been built in China,and about one third of them are risky projects.A number of high and ultra-high dams are being constructed in China's western region.The current dam construction practice tends to focus on socio-economic benefits and neglect the environment and ecology.Furthermore,periodic examinations are intended to ensure the structural safety of dams.This paper proposes a general evaluation principle for dam service.This principle stipulates that dam projects should have maximum socio-economic benefits and minimum negative effects on the environment and ecology.To satisfy the general principle of mutual harmony,socio-economic benefits,dam safety,environment,and ecology are analyzed,and the evaluation methods for dam service status are discussed.Then,a fusion algorithm of interlayer assessment is proposed on the basis of evidence theory and the fuzzy comprehensive analysis method.Finally,a comprehensive evaluation model is established.Example analysis shows that the proposed theories and methods can fulfill scientific assessment of the service status of dams.
