考虑耦合影响的数智化电缆系统的系统动力学安全评估方法

近年来,数智化电缆线路系统中安装了不同类型的电气设备在线监测装置,但这些在线监测装置相对独立,采集到的运行数据未得到综合分析,难以起到综合防范安全事故的效果。为此,提出一套考虑耦合影响的数智化电缆系统动力学安全评估模型。首先,选取数智化电缆线路系统的电气和非电气关键特征参量并进行分类;其次,建立安全评估因果关系图,设计模型功能,分析并搭建电缆系统动力学流图;再次,应用相互作用矩阵确定变量权重和建立最优模型训练参数,分别构建不同类型变量与设备之间故障概率函数;然后,依据串联模型实现对整个电缆系统的安全评估,并将其转化为系统动力学方程,搭建数智化电缆系统安全评估模型;最后,以某地区电缆线路为例评估其安全状态。结果表明,本模型处理复杂电缆系统时考虑了多变量之间的耦合影响,能够实现对数智化电缆的全面评估,有效保证其运行安全。

安全行为80-20原理与安全科技进步贡献率的比对研究

基于统计学原理的安全行为"80-20"原理与"安全科技进步贡献率",在描述安全行为对安全目标的影响时,揭示出的统计规律貌似矛盾。通过比较研究,引发两者相互矛盾的根源来自统计口径、指标体系等的影响。对于安全复杂巨系统,现行统计学方法难以全面解释其内在规律,安全系统动力学则可以较好地解决这类问题。

Simulation study of coal mine safety investment based on system dynamics

To generate dynamic planning for coal mine safety investment, this study applies system dynamics to decision-making, classifying safety investments by accident type. It validates the relationship between safety investments and accident cost, by structurally analyzing the causality between safety investments and their influence factors. Our simulation model, based on Vensim software, conducts simulation analysis on a series of actual data from a coalmine in Shanxi Province. Our results indicate a lag phase in safety investments, and that increasing pre-phase safety investment reduces accident costs. We found that a 24% increase in initial safety investment could help reach the target accident costs level 14 months earlier. Our simulation test included nine kinds of variation trends of accident costs brought by different investment ratios on accident prevention. We found an optimized ratio of accident prevention investments allowing a mine to reach accident cost goals 4 months earlier, without changing its total investment.