Before the crisis of 1997-98,the East Asian economies-except for Japan but including China-pegged their currencies to the US dollar.To avoid further turmoil,the IMF now argues that these currencies should float more f...Before the crisis of 1997-98,the East Asian economies-except for Japan but including China-pegged their currencies to the US dollar.To avoid further turmoil,the IMF now argues that these currencies should float more freely. However,our econometric estimations how that the dollar’s Predominant weight in east Asian currency baskets has returned to its pre-crisis levels.By 2002,the day-to-day volatility of each country’s exchange rate against the dollar has again become negligible.In addition,most governments are rapidly accumulating a"war chest"of official dollar reserves,which portends that this exchange rate stabilization will come to extend over months or quarters.From the doctrine of"original sin"applied to emerging-market economies,we argue that this fear of floating is entirely rational from the perspective of each individual country.And their joint pegging to the dollar benefits the East Asian dollar bloc as a whole, although Japan remains an important outlier.展开更多
Through the attempt to clarify justifiable economic circumstances where a policy of globalization and/or a policy of national isolation is proven valid, the author revealed in this thesis that there are two such econo...Through the attempt to clarify justifiable economic circumstances where a policy of globalization and/or a policy of national isolation is proven valid, the author revealed in this thesis that there are two such economic phases： An economy where the theory of comparative advantage, proposed by David Ricardo, is applicable, and an economy where the theory is not applicable. The author applied his original approach to prove the validity of Ricardo＇s comparative advantage theory, and found that the theory can be justified only when a macro economy is in the primal problem phase, where a policy of globalization is effective. It is a necessary and sufficient condition for the theory to be valid. In other words, Ricardo＇s theory of comparative advantage is not applicable when a macro economy is in the dual problem phase, where a policy of national isolation, instead of that of globalization, is valid. The primal problem phase and the dual problem phase of a macro economy, called in this thesis by the author, are a version of an expression quite common in OR （operations research）.展开更多
文摘Before the crisis of 1997-98,the East Asian economies-except for Japan but including China-pegged their currencies to the US dollar.To avoid further turmoil,the IMF now argues that these currencies should float more freely. However,our econometric estimations how that the dollar’s Predominant weight in east Asian currency baskets has returned to its pre-crisis levels.By 2002,the day-to-day volatility of each country’s exchange rate against the dollar has again become negligible.In addition,most governments are rapidly accumulating a"war chest"of official dollar reserves,which portends that this exchange rate stabilization will come to extend over months or quarters.From the doctrine of"original sin"applied to emerging-market economies,we argue that this fear of floating is entirely rational from the perspective of each individual country.And their joint pegging to the dollar benefits the East Asian dollar bloc as a whole, although Japan remains an important outlier.
文摘Through the attempt to clarify justifiable economic circumstances where a policy of globalization and/or a policy of national isolation is proven valid, the author revealed in this thesis that there are two such economic phases： An economy where the theory of comparative advantage, proposed by David Ricardo, is applicable, and an economy where the theory is not applicable. The author applied his original approach to prove the validity of Ricardo＇s comparative advantage theory, and found that the theory can be justified only when a macro economy is in the primal problem phase, where a policy of globalization is effective. It is a necessary and sufficient condition for the theory to be valid. In other words, Ricardo＇s theory of comparative advantage is not applicable when a macro economy is in the dual problem phase, where a policy of national isolation, instead of that of globalization, is valid. The primal problem phase and the dual problem phase of a macro economy, called in this thesis by the author, are a version of an expression quite common in OR （operations research）.
