商业银行个人信贷信用评分模型的构建与应用

面对全球经济、金融一体化的现实背景以及随之而来的白热化竞争态势,个人信贷业务将是我国银行业目前及未来发展的关键领域。为此,文章首先从借款人、贷款方案、贷款投向和风险缓释四个要素出发,构建了一套产品水平的信用评分模型的整体分析框架,并将该框架具体应用于个人住房贷款产品;在此基础上,考虑到我国银行业的发展现状与评分模型的可实施性,设计了一个根据专家判断法的评分结果和定量模型法的评分结果进行相互校验的混合型个人住房贷款信用评分模型,并基于所收集的某股份制商业银行的样本贷款数据进行了部分验证工作,同时指出下一步的研究方向。

经济利润EVA在企业价值定量评估中的应用

企业价值定量评估在企业并购重组和经营管理活动中发挥着重要作用。本文将经济利润EVA和收益法相结合,构建起基于经济利润EVA的企业价值定量评估模型,对于科学评估企业经济价值,加强企业价值管理,具有重要的指导意义。

Novel damage constitutive models and new quantitative identification method for stress thresholds of rocks under uniaxial compression

Four key stress thresholds exist in the compression process of rocks,i.e.,crack closure stress(σ_(cc)),crack initiation stress(σ_(ci)),crack damage stress(σ_(cd))and compressive strength(σ_(c)).The quantitative identifications of the first three stress thresholds are of great significance for characterizing the microcrack growth and damage evolution of rocks under compression.In this paper,a new method based on damage constitutive model is proposed to quantitatively measure the stress thresholds of rocks.Firstly,two different damage constitutive models were constructed based on acoustic emission(AE)counts and Weibull distribution function considering the compaction stages of the rock and the bearing capacity of the damage element.Then,the accumulative AE counts method(ACLM),AE count rate method(CRM)and constitutive model method(CMM)were introduced to determine the stress thresholds of rocks.Finally,the stress thresholds of 9 different rocks were identified by ACLM,CRM,and CMM.The results show that the theoretical stress−strain curves obtained from the two damage constitutive models are in good agreement with that of the experimental data,and the differences between the two damage constitutive models mainly come from the evolutionary differences of the damage variables.The results of the stress thresholds identified by the CMM are in good agreement with those identified by the AE methods,i.e.,ACLM and CRM.Therefore,the proposed CMM can be used to determine the stress thresholds of rocks.

Space range estimate for battery-powered vertical take-off and landing aircraft

A novel method for estimating the space range of battery-powered vertical take-off and landing(VTOL) aircraft is presented. The method is based on flight parameter optimization and numerical iteration. Subsystem models including required thrust, required power and battery discharge models are presented. The problem to be optimized is formulated, and then case study simulation is conducted using the established method for quantitative analysis. Simulation results show that the space range of battery-powered VTOL aircraft in a vertical plane is an oblate curve, which appears horizontally long but vertically short, and the peak point is not located on the vertical climb path. The method and results are confirmed by parameter analysis and validations.

Trinomial tree model of the real options approach used in mining investment price forecast and analysis

In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybdenum ore as an example, a theoretical model for the hurdle price under the optimal investment timing is constructed. Based on the example data, the op- tion price model is simulated. By the model, mine investment price can be computed and forecast effectively. According to the characteristics of mine investment, cut-off grade, reserve estimation and mine life in different price also can be quantified. The result shows that it is reliable and practical to enhance the accuracy for mining investment decision.

Enhancing pose accuracy of space robot by improved differential evolution

Due to the intense vibration durirLg launching and rigorous orbital temperature environment, the kinematic parameters of space robot may be largely deviated from their nominal parameters. The disparity will cause the real pose （including position and orientation） of the end effector not to match the desired one, and further hinder the space robot from performing the scheduled mission. To improve pose accuracy of space robot, a new self-calibration method using the distance measurement provided by a laser-ranger fixed on the end-effector is proposed. A distance-measurement model of the space robot is built according to the distance from the starting point of the laser beam to the intersection point at the declining plane. Based on the model, the cost function about the pose error is derived. The kinematic calibration is transferred to a non-linear system optimization problem, which is solved by the improved differential evolution （DE） algoritlun. A six-degree of freedom （6-DOF） robot is used as a practical simulation example, and the simulation results show： 1） A significant improvement of pose accuracy of space robot can be obtained by distance measurement only; 2） Search efficiency is increased by improved DE; 3） More calibration configurations may make calibration results better.

Model-Based Integrated Methods for Quantitative Estimation of Soil Salinity from Hyperspectral Remote Sensing Data:A Case Study of Selected South African Soils

Soil salinization is a land degradation process that leads to reduced agricultural yields. This study investigated the method that can best predict electrical conductivity (EC) in dry soils using individual bands, a normalized difference salinity index (NDSI), partial least squares regression (PLSR), and bagging PLSR. Soil spectral reflectance of dried, ground, and sieved soil samples containing varying amounts of EC was measured using an ASD FieldSpec spectrometer in a darkroom. Predictive models were computed using a training dataset. An independent validation dataset was used to validate the models. The results showed that good predictions could be made based on bagging PLSR using first derivative reflectance (validation R2 = 0.85), PLSR using untransformed reflectance (validation R2 = 0.70), NDSI (validation R2 = 0.65), and the untransformed individual band at 2257 nm (validation R2 = 0.60) predictive models. These suggested the potential of mapping soil salinity using airborne and/or satellite hyperspectral data during dry seasons.

Progress on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on cropland change

It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes in the fields of both climate change and land use change. Relationships between cropland changes and driving forces were qualitatively studied in most of the previous researches. However, the quantitative assessments of the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes are needed to be explored for a better understanding of the dynamics of land use changes. We systematically reviewed the methods of identifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes at quantitative aspects, including model analysis, mathematical statistical method, framework analysis, index assessment and difference comparison. Progress of the previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions was introduced. Then we discussed four defects in the assessment of the contributions of climate change and human activities. For example, the methods were lack of comprehensiveness, and the data need to be more accurate and abundant. In addition, the scale was single and the explanations were biased. Moreover, we concluded a clue about quantitative approach to assess the contributions from synthetically aspect to specific driving forces. Finally, the solutions of the future researches on data, scale and explanation were proposed.