美国实力变化和国际体系重组

2011年,美国总体实力继续在相对衰退的轨迹上继续下滑,全球战略呈总体收缩态势,对全球经济和政治事务的主导进一步削弱。但美国作为世界头号强国,对国际体系重组仍拥有其他行为体所没有的影响,在某些领域(如军事安全)和某些地区(如亚太)仍有局部进取。2012年及以后,美国及西方大国和发展中大国(新兴大国)之间的关系将进入深度磨合期,中国需要在美国大选期间提高理论和战略自觉,重视政策策略运用,注意舆论动向和导向,稳定和发展中美关系,并推动国际体系朝着更加公正合理的方向发展。

中美实力对比变化对国际秩序的影响——权力转移论和新自由制度主义的比较研究

中美实力对比的变化将对现存国际秩序造成怎样的影响,权力转移论和新自由制度主义对此给出了不同的预测。权力转移论认为,国际秩序是国家间实力对比的反映,当实力对比发生变化后,崛起国会推翻既有国际秩序。权力转移论者判定,伴随着中美实力差距的缩小,中国将会重塑美国主导的国际秩序,而这将引发与美国的冲突;权力转移论者将中国最近的一些外交行动视作其重塑国际秩序的表现。新自由制度主义则认为,国际秩序中的制度不仅能为各国创造共同利益,还能通过调整,消化实力对比变化给自身带来的震动。新自由制度主义者认为,随着中美实力对比发生变化,既有国际秩序也能适应中国崛起,中国近期的外交创新是在弥补既有秩序的不足,中美也能继续保持关系稳定。中美需理性认识彼此相对实力的变化,为讨论既有国际秩序的走向奠定坚实的基础;中国也应该从自身正当的国家利益出发,理性对待现存国际秩序;学界也需尝试提炼一个研究一国在国际秩序中角色的新框架,为准确描述新时代中国国际秩序实践打下理论基础。

从科索沃危机看21世纪国际战略格局

本文以科索沃危机为切入点，从跨世纪战略发展的角度，揭示了以美国为首的北约空袭南联盟和用导弹袭击中国驻南联盟大使馆所造成的未来２１世纪的国际战略格局，指出了美国征服世界的战略目标及其对世界和平与发展的严重威胁，并就遏制美国称霸世界的野心，消除战争威胁，实现人类持久和平提出对策。

Experimental study on the variation law of coal temperature during excavation in coal mines

By testing the temperature of the coal and the stress of the working surface, we got the variation law of coal temperature and coal stress during the excavation. The result shows that the activities of mining affect the coal temperature, the fluctuation of coal temperature and the coal stress is synchronous. During the smooth change of crustal stress, the coal temperature basically keeps unchanged, when the dynamic phenomenon appears, the coal temperature changes, as well the coal stress. Therefore, we can use the online coal temperature monitoring system to test the coal temperature of the working surface continuously, and it can provide basic information for forecasting coal mine power disaster before it happens.

An experiment discovery about gravitational force changes in materials due to temperature variation

The authors discovered in first time that the weight of materials or its gravitational force by earth related to its temperature and its ferromagnetism. An experiment was designed to elevate the temperatures of six different materials （Au, Ag, Cu, Fe, Al, Ni） up to 600 ℃and precisely measured their weights. It is found all the materials weigh about 0.33 ‰ - 0. 82 ‰ less. For example the weight of silver sample weighted by a precision electronic scale in a manner of special design decreases about 0.8 ‰, when its temperature is elevated to 600 ℃. Thus different metals＇ gravitational forces or weights are adjusted with temperature variation.

Vibration compaction characteristics of rock filling embankment

The dynamic model experiment of the rock filling embankment was carried out to investigate the vibration compaction mechanism. The rock filling materials were compacted by the plate-vibrated compactor, and the characteristics of the rock filling materials, such as settlement, pressure change and response waveform, were measured by the dynamic earth pressure gauge and aceelerometer. Moreover, a new method for detecting the compactness of the rock filling embankment was proposed based on the maximum dry density and modulus of deformation. The results show that the process of vibration compaction includes compact, elastic deformation and loose stages, and the vibratory pressure transfers to the surroundings from the vibration center in non-linear rule. Furthermore, the test results obtained by the present method are basically in agreement with those obtained by the traditional method, and the maximum relative error between them is about 0.5%.

An Experimental Study on the Wave-Induced Pore Water Pressure Change and Relative Influencing Factors in the Silty Seabed

In this study, a flume experiment was designed to investigate the characteristics of wave-induced pore water pressure in the soil of a silty seabed with different clay contents, soil layer buried depths and wave heights respectively. The study showed that water waves propagating over silty seabed can induce significant change of pore water pressure, and the amplitude of pore pressure depends on depth of buried soil layer, clay content and wave height, which are considered as the three influencing factors for pore water pressure change. The pressure will attenuate according to exponential law with increase of soil layer buried depth, and the attenuation being more rapid in those soil layers with higher clay content and greater wave height. The pore pressure in silty seabed increases rapidly in the initial stage of wave action, then decreases gradually to a stable value, depending on the depth of buried soil layer, clay content and wave height. The peak value of pore pressure will increase if clay content or depth of buried soil layer decreases, or wave height increases. The analysis indicated that these soils with 5% clay content and waves with higher wave height produce instability in bed easier, and that the wave energy is mostly dissipated near the surface of soils and 5% clay content in soils can prevent pore pressure from dissipating immediately.

Exposure, sensitivity, and social adaptive capacity related to climate change:empirical research in China

The present research established a preliminary indicator assessment system satisfying Chinese characters for exposure, sensitivity, and social adaptive capacity related to climate change. The 31 province-level administrative regions in China's Mainland were considered in our research. We developed three dimensions of indices related to climate change, including primary, secondary,and tertiary indicators. We chose all variables and indicators based on a literature review and used principal component analysis and the varimax method to develop a weighted assessment index system. Districts in central China scored higher on the overall exposure index than other sample districts, western China generally exhibited higher sensitivity, and eastern China exhibited comparatively higher social adaptive capacity than the other regions. This study also provides perspective for adaptation policies that all regions in China could adopt to determine development direction decision-making based on their specific conditions and diversified comparative advantages to enhance adaptive capacity in response to climate change.

中美关系变化与韩半岛

中美实力对比发生变化的同时,中美政府针对彼此的政策随之调整,这不可避免地对东亚和东北亚秩序造成影响。在这种形势下,韩半岛所受到的冲击也逐渐增大。近期,韩半岛局势存在着紧张和不安定的因素,而中美关系对韩半岛局势的影响也愈加明显。笔者从两国关系中合作和矛盾并存的观点出发,以21世纪的前十年中国的胡锦涛政府时期和美国的(小)布什政府、奥巴马政府时期为主要研究区间,回顾整理中美关系的变化和持续推移的趋势。本文通过分析中美关系变化对韩半岛产生的影响,提出为了维持东北亚地区和韩半岛的和平稳定,有必要开拓一条双边间及多边间的紧密的协商渠道,在维持六方会谈框架的同时,寻求一个具体施行方案体制的可能性。

Experimental evolution, behavior and genetics： Associative learning as a case study

The evolutionary dynamics of behavioral traits reflect phenotypic and genetic changes. Methodological difficulties in analyzing the genetic dynamics of complex traits have left open questions on the mechanisms that have shaped complex beha- viors and cognitive abilities. A strategy to investigate the change of behavior across generations is to assume that genetic con- straints have a negligible role in evolution （the phenotypic gambit） and focus on the phenotype as a proxy for genetic evolution. Empirical evidence and technologic advances in genomics question the choice of neglecting the genetic underlying the dynamics of behavioral evolution. I first discuss the relevance of genetic factors - e.g. genetic variability, genetic linkage, gene interactions - in shaping evolution, showing the importance of taking genetic factors into account when dealing with evolutionary dynamics. I subsequently describe the recent advancements in genetics and genomics that make the investigation of the ongoing evolutionary process of behavioral traits finally attainable. In particular, by applying genomic resequencing to experimental evolution - a me- thod called Evolve ＆ Resequence - it is possible to monitor at the same time phenotypic and genomie changes in populations exposed to controlled selective pressures. Experimental evolution of associative learning, a well-known trait that promptly re- sponds to selection, is a convenient model to illustrate this approach applied to behavior and cognition. Taking into account the recent achievements of the field, I discuss how to design and conduct an effective Evolve ＆ Resequence study on associative learning in Drosophila. By integrating phenotypic and genomic data in the investigation of evolutionary dynamics, new insights can be gained on longstanding questions such as the modularity of mind and its evolution .

Unanswered questions in unsaturated soil mechanics

The last two to three decades have seen significant advances in the mechanics of unsaturated soils.It is now widely recognized that the fundamental principles in soil mechanics must cover both saturated and unsaturated soils.Nevertheless,there is still a great deal of uncertainties in the geotechnical community about how soil mechanics principles well-established for saturated soils can be extended to unsaturated soils.There is even wide skepticism about the necessity of such extension in engineering practice.This paper discusses some common pitfalls related to the fundamental principles that govern the volume change,shear strength and hydromechanical behaviour of unsaturated soils.It also attempts to address the issue of engineering relevance of unsaturated soil mechanics.

Physical and numerical modelling of the Severn Barrage

The Severn Estuary has one of the largest tidal ranges in the world and has long been the subject of consideration for tidal energy generation.Whilst plans to build a tidal barrage across the estuary have existed in various forms since the 1920s,the 1989Severn Tidal Power Group(STPG)proposal is commonly referred to as the original Severn Barrage.The UK government abandoned this ebb generation scheme as a public investment project in 2010.However,plans to build a two-way generation scheme were more recently put forward by a private consortium,namely Hafren Power.To assess the impact that a barrage would have on the hydro-environment in the estuary a number of numerical modelling studies have previously been conducted for the STPG scheme.As this design has now been superseded by the Hafren Power proposal,new studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of a two-way scheme.In this study the hydro-environmental impacts of both ebb-only and two-way schemes were assessed using physical and numerical modelling techniques.Scale model barrages were constructed and testing was carried out using a physical model of the Severn Estuary,located in the hydraulics laboratory at Cardiff University.A depth integrated numerical model,namely DIVAST,was applied to the physical model geometry and modifications were made to simulate the effects of the barrage structures.The numerical model predictions showed good agreement with the corresponding laboratory data.The results were consistent with conclusions from previous studies,relating to the ebb-only scheme.These included an increase in the minimum water levels upstream of the barrage,a reduction in the mean water levels downstream of the barrage and a general reduction in tidal velocities.For a two-way scheme changes in the tidal elevations and velocities depended on the exact operating conditions of the barrage.It was found that with no starting head the tidal regime was similar to the natural state,with little change in the elevations and a slight reduction in the mean velocities.As a starting head was introduced there was still little change in elevations downstream of the barrage,however,there was an increase in the minimum water levels upstream of the barrage,and a further reduction in the mean velocities.