全球实力向东方转移

马布巴尼的新书《新亚洲半球：全球实力不可避免地向东方转移》最吸引读者的是其独特的新加坡视角。马布巴尼的工作与生活深入东方与西方，熟悉两边文化历史和观点态度，却又能保持思想的独立性。惟其如此，他才能写出这样的作品：既肯定西方对人类不可磨灭的贡献，又以西方人能理解的语言指出它的弊端。

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on Influence Factors of Modern Agricultural Equipment Level in the Processof Agricultural Sustainable Development

To promote modem agricultural equipment level is one characteristic of constructing and developing modem agriculture in China. This paper makes up stepwise linear regression analysis model of influence factors of modem agricultural equipment level, and chooses rural labor, per capita income of rural residents, rural investment, proportion of people at secondary education level and at higher level in per hundred rural labor force and arable land area as independent variables, and total power of machine as induced variable. The major results show that the relativity of modem ag- ricultural equipment level, rural investment and education level of peasants is remarkable, and they are the major influence factors of modem agricultural equipment level. Raising investment level of rural infrastructure construction as well as and research and devel- opment and promotion of advanced and applicable modem agricultural equipment, improving quality and education level of peasants can accelerate the development of China＇s modern agricultural equipment effectively in the process of agricultural sustainable development.

大国隐性军事竞争与中美冲突管控

无论是历史案例,如近现代欧洲主要大国之间的军事博弈,还是现当代国际安全态势,如美苏冷战以及当前美国自我定位的大国竞争,军事竞争始终是大国博弈的重要维度。军事竞争的内涵、机制及影响是大国关系乃至地区和全球安全体系的重要构成因素。军事竞争与冲突的关系,特别是在何种情况下不同模式和状态的军事竞争更可能影响国家间安全体系的稳定性,是该议题的核心关切之一。本文通过融合技术、军事行动与国家战略层面的视角,基于大国军事能力动态差异、实力均衡变迁与针对性调整,对大国军事竞争的性质与影响进行探讨,突出军事竞争主体之间共同演化过程中所具有的"隐性"竞争特征。其表现包括战略层面的长周期与体系性,以及技战术与行动层面军事演进对战略稳定体系的作用。在此过程中,实力均衡的相对转移与技术条件及相应作战方式的改变,在宏观与微观两个层面共同作用并影响大国军事竞争乃至整体战略博弈的表现,进而对冲突管控提出了不同要求。