Reserve estimation is a key to find the correct NPV in a mining project. The most important factor in reserve estimation is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated, and imposed a hig...Reserve estimation is a key to find the correct NPV in a mining project. The most important factor in reserve estimation is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated, and imposed a high degree of uncertainty to the reserve estimation, and in consequence to the whole mine planning procedure. Real option approach is an efficient method of decision making in the uncertain conditions. This approach has been used for evaluation of defined natural resources projects until now. This study considering the metal price uncertainty used real option approach to prepare a methodology for reserve estimation in open pit mines. This study was done on a copper cylindrical deposit, but the achieved methodology can be adjusted for all kinds of deposits. This methodology was comprehensively described through the examples in such a manner that can be used by the mine planners.展开更多
In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybde...In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybdenum ore as an example, a theoretical model for the hurdle price under the optimal investment timing is constructed. Based on the example data, the op- tion price model is simulated. By the model, mine investment price can be computed and forecast effectively. According to the characteristics of mine investment, cut-off grade, reserve estimation and mine life in different price also can be quantified. The result shows that it is reliable and practical to enhance the accuracy for mining investment decision.展开更多
A traditional real option model is applied to a simulation of an oil production project. This analysis includes a carbon sequestration structure cost and possible revenues from carbon credit markets. The evaluation fo...A traditional real option model is applied to a simulation of an oil production project. This analysis includes a carbon sequestration structure cost and possible revenues from carbon credit markets. The evaluation focuses on the determination of an optimal timing for the investment in different scenarios, regarding the volatility of the uncertain variable, oil prices. Historical prices data from different moments are used to estimate different prices uncertainty scenarios and its impacts on the decision making on building a carbon sequestration structure. The results are compared between a real option model to the ones obtained using the traditional net present value evaluation. Trigger point of investments are defined for different scenarios with and without carbon sequestration. There is also an analysis of the effects on decision-making in different scenarios for carbon market prices. It is perceived an important difference in the decision making considering the different methods of economic analysis. The real option model is a fundamental valuation tool in periods of high price volatility and higher sunk costs added to a project such as the carbon sequestration structure. Greenhouse gas projects demand high oil prices, positive market trend expectation and volatility.展开更多
文摘Reserve estimation is a key to find the correct NPV in a mining project. The most important factor in reserve estimation is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated, and imposed a high degree of uncertainty to the reserve estimation, and in consequence to the whole mine planning procedure. Real option approach is an efficient method of decision making in the uncertain conditions. This approach has been used for evaluation of defined natural resources projects until now. This study considering the metal price uncertainty used real option approach to prepare a methodology for reserve estimation in open pit mines. This study was done on a copper cylindrical deposit, but the achieved methodology can be adjusted for all kinds of deposits. This methodology was comprehensively described through the examples in such a manner that can be used by the mine planners.
文摘In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybdenum ore as an example, a theoretical model for the hurdle price under the optimal investment timing is constructed. Based on the example data, the op- tion price model is simulated. By the model, mine investment price can be computed and forecast effectively. According to the characteristics of mine investment, cut-off grade, reserve estimation and mine life in different price also can be quantified. The result shows that it is reliable and practical to enhance the accuracy for mining investment decision.
文摘A traditional real option model is applied to a simulation of an oil production project. This analysis includes a carbon sequestration structure cost and possible revenues from carbon credit markets. The evaluation focuses on the determination of an optimal timing for the investment in different scenarios, regarding the volatility of the uncertain variable, oil prices. Historical prices data from different moments are used to estimate different prices uncertainty scenarios and its impacts on the decision making on building a carbon sequestration structure. The results are compared between a real option model to the ones obtained using the traditional net present value evaluation. Trigger point of investments are defined for different scenarios with and without carbon sequestration. There is also an analysis of the effects on decision-making in different scenarios for carbon market prices. It is perceived an important difference in the decision making considering the different methods of economic analysis. The real option model is a fundamental valuation tool in periods of high price volatility and higher sunk costs added to a project such as the carbon sequestration structure. Greenhouse gas projects demand high oil prices, positive market trend expectation and volatility.
