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外资利用对我国进出口贸易影响的实证模型分析 被引量:2
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作者 邹瑾 《商场现代化》 北大核心 2005年第12X期27-27,共1页
早在2002年我国利用外资额就跃升全球第一.而对外贸易额也年年攀升,名列世界第三.利用外资对推动我国进出口贸易发展有无关系,又有何关系?这些问题多年来一直是国内金融界研究的焦点之一.鉴于此,本文在前人的基础上,通过对1985年以来外... 早在2002年我国利用外资额就跃升全球第一.而对外贸易额也年年攀升,名列世界第三.利用外资对推动我国进出口贸易发展有无关系,又有何关系?这些问题多年来一直是国内金融界研究的焦点之一.鉴于此,本文在前人的基础上,通过对1985年以来外资利用和进出口贸易数据建立回归模型,进行实证分析,认为二者密不可分.外资利用促进了我国进出口的稳定发展,而各解释变量的作用大小和趋势也各有不同. 展开更多
关键词 进出口贸易 外资利用 实证模型分析 数据建立回归模型
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FDI影响中国经济增长的实证模型分析
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作者 孙蕊 《黑龙江对外经贸》 2003年第10期27-29,共3页
20世纪90年代及21世纪初的世界经济表明,国际贸易和国际资本流动的迅速增长是经济全球化的两个最重要的特征.而在国际资本流动中,国际直接投资(FDI)始终处于基础性的地位,因为正是它把世界的生产网络、贸易网络、金融网络和信息网络联... 20世纪90年代及21世纪初的世界经济表明,国际贸易和国际资本流动的迅速增长是经济全球化的两个最重要的特征.而在国际资本流动中,国际直接投资(FDI)始终处于基础性的地位,因为正是它把世界的生产网络、贸易网络、金融网络和信息网络联系在一起,从而构成一个统一的全球市场.中国自改革开放以来,正逐渐以更积极的姿态投入到国际直接投资中去,并且成为国际直接投资的最大收益国.可以说,国际直接投资直接影响了中国的经济增长,并且也会在今后继续发挥它的作用.那么,认真研究二者之间的关系就成为经济工作中的重点问题. 展开更多
关键词 FDI 中国 经济增长 实证模型分析 外商直接投资 资产质量 技术进步
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《银行业风险评估理论、模型与实证分析》评介
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作者 陈小平 《学术研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2002年第8期23-24,共2页
关键词 银行业 风险 《银行业风险评估理论、模型实证分析 评介
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中国寿险市场退保影响因素的实证分析 被引量:20
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作者 展凯 《当代经济科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2008年第4期93-98,共6页
文章分析了影响寿险保单退保的主要因素,并利用中国寿险市场1983-2007年的退保数据,选择失业率、利率、物价指数三个变量建立了向量误差修正模型(VECM)对影响退保的"财务危机"、"利率替代"和"支付贬值"... 文章分析了影响寿险保单退保的主要因素,并利用中国寿险市场1983-2007年的退保数据,选择失业率、利率、物价指数三个变量建立了向量误差修正模型(VECM)对影响退保的"财务危机"、"利率替代"和"支付贬值"三个假说进行了实证检验,结果表明三个变量都影响退保率的变化,"支付贬值"因素的短期和长期影响最明显,"利率替代"因素的短期和长期效应也比较显著,而"财务危机"的长期效应不显著,文章最后根据分析结果提出了相应的应对措施。 展开更多
关键词 退保 影响因素 实证分析VECM模型
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锦州港油品物流的灰色模型预测分析 被引量:2
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作者 杨飞雪 李晓梅 《辽宁工业大学学报(社会科学版)》 2018年第5期36-38,共3页
随着港口物流业在国民经济中的迅猛发展,锦州港的油品物流产业链也已日趋完善。针对锦州港油品物流业务当前内外部的优、劣势条件,及拥有的机遇与潜在的环境威胁,文章运用灰色模型预测估算锦州港口油品物流的可能发展态势,最后提出锦州... 随着港口物流业在国民经济中的迅猛发展,锦州港的油品物流产业链也已日趋完善。针对锦州港油品物流业务当前内外部的优、劣势条件,及拥有的机遇与潜在的环境威胁,文章运用灰色模型预测估算锦州港口油品物流的可能发展态势,最后提出锦州港油品物流业如何才能达到良性循环发展的可行性建议。锦州港借助已有的港口优势,抓住新的机遇,大力建造油品物流产业,将会对周边地区的经济发展有着重要的现实意义。 展开更多
关键词 锦州港 油品物流发展 灰色模型实证分析
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企业财务可持续增长成因实证检验——基于四川上市公司2003-2011年数据分析 被引量:3
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作者 周星 敬采云 《商业时代》 北大核心 2014年第10期96-97,共2页
本文利用四川省27个上市公司2003-2011年的面板数据,对企业营业增长能力、股利政策、公司规模与财务可持续增长能力进行实证性检验,结果表明:营业增长能力、股利政策、公司规模对财务可持续增长都有显著的正向促进作用,并在此基础上提... 本文利用四川省27个上市公司2003-2011年的面板数据,对企业营业增长能力、股利政策、公司规模与财务可持续增长能力进行实证性检验,结果表明:营业增长能力、股利政策、公司规模对财务可持续增长都有显著的正向促进作用,并在此基础上提出相应建议。 展开更多
关键词 财务可持续增长 希金斯模型实证分析
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新型农村社会养老保险制度实施情况的分析研究
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作者 高翔 《生产力研究》 2012年第7期63-65,共3页
文章通过问卷调查的方式,对两地新农保的运行情况进行比较并列举其具体表现,进而基于SPSS软件的实证分析验证所得结论,通过因子分析法构建其满意度、信任度评分模型,结合logistic回归模型,分析所调查各因素对参保率的影响。针对在调查... 文章通过问卷调查的方式,对两地新农保的运行情况进行比较并列举其具体表现,进而基于SPSS软件的实证分析验证所得结论,通过因子分析法构建其满意度、信任度评分模型,结合logistic回归模型,分析所调查各因素对参保率的影响。针对在调查中发现的"新农保"热议问题提出调查后的分析,最后给出政策性建议。 展开更多
关键词 新型农村社会养老保险 运行状况 实证模型分析 建议
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基于区域经济层次交互分析的流域需水预测方法 被引量:1
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作者 王忠静 熊雁晖 赵建世 《水力发电学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2004年第5期78-82,共5页
根据水资源规划和需水预测分析的结构特点 ,在宏观经济水资源多目标模型基础上 ,采用计量经济学实证分析原理 ,建立了流域及局部地区的经济与需水层次交互分析复合模型。应用建立的模型 ,针对海河流域因社会经济高速发展导致可利用水资... 根据水资源规划和需水预测分析的结构特点 ,在宏观经济水资源多目标模型基础上 ,采用计量经济学实证分析原理 ,建立了流域及局部地区的经济与需水层次交互分析复合模型。应用建立的模型 ,针对海河流域因社会经济高速发展导致可利用水资源短缺、地下水严重超采和生态环境恶化等具体情况 ,进行了未来水平年的供需水情况分析 。 展开更多
关键词 水资源 宏观经济水资源模型 计量经济实证分析模型 需水预测
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基于GM(1,1)模型的四川省人口结构平衡趋势预测
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作者 王香 《应用数学进展》 2022年第12期8982-8987,共6页
中国人口自然生育年龄水平已经持续长期低于世界更替年水平,甚至正在面临迈向低年龄段生育安全陷阱边缘的潜在危机。人口增长结构呈现负增长的趋势,人口社会老龄化水平持续加深,出生率“人口红利”比例正逐步下降。本文通过分析四川省20... 中国人口自然生育年龄水平已经持续长期低于世界更替年水平,甚至正在面临迈向低年龄段生育安全陷阱边缘的潜在危机。人口增长结构呈现负增长的趋势,人口社会老龄化水平持续加深,出生率“人口红利”比例正逐步下降。本文通过分析四川省2011~2020儿童人口和老年人口现状,利用灰色GM(1,1)进行趋势预测分析,预测2021~2025年四川省人口结构的变化趋势,并给出相应的对策建议。方法:选取2011~2020年四川省人口统计年鉴0~14岁和65岁以上的人口数量,利用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测2021~2025年四川省生育与老龄人口比例。结果:低适龄生育率正与我国老龄化加速相叠加,矛盾突出和面临的挑战继续深化。 展开更多
关键词 人口的老龄化研究 人口灰色理论模型 人口实证模型分析研究
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带有多重分类变量的潜变量模型的可识别性 被引量:1
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作者 勾建伟 夏业茂 《应用数学》 CSCD 北大核心 2022年第2期302-316,共15页
潜变量模型是一种广泛应用于表征多个观察变量之间相关性的统计方法.在刻画多重分类数据关联性方面,这类模型通常假定每个分类变量都与一个潜在连续变量或向量相联系,通过潜变量或向量在窗口部分的观察值来确定分类变量的值,从而达到对... 潜变量模型是一种广泛应用于表征多个观察变量之间相关性的统计方法.在刻画多重分类数据关联性方面,这类模型通常假定每个分类变量都与一个潜在连续变量或向量相联系,通过潜变量或向量在窗口部分的观察值来确定分类变量的值,从而达到对类别界定.然而该方法存在一个弱点:观察似然或模型存在确定性问题.模型缺乏识别性必然会对估计构成影响.本文对带有多重二分、有序和/或无序分数据的潜变量模型的模型识别问题,提出一种基于模型的识别方法,给出了一些有用的结果,特别是在建立因子分析模型和/或结构方程模型解释多重响应变量之间的相关性时.这些条件利用模型结构并保持了不同类型参数的相互分离性,这从理论和应用角度来看都较为方便. 展开更多
关键词 多重分类变量 模型确定 潜变量模型 实证因子分析模型 结构方程模型
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HIERARCHIC GREY QUASI-PREFERRED ANALYSIS MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION
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作者 李炳军 刘思峰 任盈盈 《Transactions of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics》 EI 2005年第1期78-83,共6页
The grey quasi-preferred analysis (GQPA) is one of important methods for realizing system analysis to conquer the limitations of the existing GQPA model, without any considerations to the difference of the different b... The grey quasi-preferred analysis (GQPA) is one of important methods for realizing system analysis to conquer the limitations of the existing GQPA model, without any considerations to the difference of the different behavioral factor′s importance. It could not be used to analyze the complex system with multi-hierarchy correlation factors, the weighted synthetic method for calculating abstract incidence degrees between the system beha-vioral characteristics and correlative factors in different hierarchies is given out,and the hierarchic grey quasi-preferred analysis (HGQPA) model is established. The effectiveness of the HGQPA model is tested by the scientific-technical system of Jiangsu Province. The depth and the range of the application of GQPA are developed, and the HGQPA model is regarded as a new approach to systemically analyze the complex systems with multi-hierarchy correlation factors. 展开更多
关键词 multi-hierarchy quasi-preferred analysis MODEL grey system
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公募基金经理“私奔”现象刍议 被引量:1
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作者 陈良 《消费导刊》 2007年第11期90-90,38,共2页
基金经理是基金公司的核心,由于传统的人才管理激励制度对公募基金经理不再适用,公募经理纷纷跳槽。对传统的激励机制进行阐述,并对比私募基金与公募基金激励方式的不同,其后采用经济计量模型,根据0607年的现状,分析公募经理为何"... 基金经理是基金公司的核心,由于传统的人才管理激励制度对公募基金经理不再适用,公募经理纷纷跳槽。对传统的激励机制进行阐述,并对比私募基金与公募基金激励方式的不同,其后采用经济计量模型,根据0607年的现状,分析公募经理为何"私奔"这一问题。最后对基金公司提出了一些建议,以供参考。 展开更多
关键词 公募基金经理 私募基金经理 期望效用模型实证分析 基金经理激励方式
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Capital Account Openness,Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth:International Experiences and Implications 被引量:1
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作者 李丽玲 王曦 《China Economist》 2017年第6期69-85,共17页
Based on the Barro classical growth model, this paper introduces capital account openness and exchange rate volatility to conduct an empirical analysis using the panel data of 182 countries(regions) during 1970-2013 t... Based on the Barro classical growth model, this paper introduces capital account openness and exchange rate volatility to conduct an empirical analysis using the panel data of 182 countries(regions) during 1970-2013 to examine the combined effects of capital account openness and exchange rate risks on economic growth. Our findings are as follows:(1) Without considering exchange rate volatility, capital account openness is subject to a threshold effect, i.e. capital account openness significantly promotes the economic growth of middle-and high-income countries but exerts the opposite effect on low-income countries; and(2) after exchange rate volatility is taken into account, the growth effect of capital account openness is reduced and the greater the exchange rate volatility is, the smaller the marginal effect of capital account openness will be; sample-specific results also proved the existence of the threshold effect. This paper offers the following implications:(1) The effect of capital account openness can be better examined based on risk factors;(2) moderately controlling exchange rate volatility is conducive to acquiring greater benefits from capital account openness; and(3) the threshold effect of capital account openness cannot be overlooked. 展开更多
关键词 capital account openness exchange rate volatility threshold effect economicgrowth
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Empirical Analysis of City Contact in Zhujiang(Pearl) River Delta, China 被引量:7
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作者 TONG De LIU Tao +1 位作者 LI Guicai YU Lei 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2014年第3期384-392,共9页
In traditional urban geography, city contact research is a classic study element in city research. In general, researchers use the traditional gravity model to characterize the contacts that exist between two cities. ... In traditional urban geography, city contact research is a classic study element in city research. In general, researchers use the traditional gravity model to characterize the contacts that exist between two cities. The traditional gravity model assumes ideal conditions, but these preconditions and their results often do not exist in realistic conditions. Thus, we used a modified gravity model to characterize the city contacts within a specific region. This model considers factors such as intercity complementarities, government intervention, and the diversity of the transportation infrastructure which is characterized as the transportation distance instead of the traditional Euclidean distance. We applied this model to an empirical study of city contact in the Zhujiang(Pearl) River Delta(PRD) of China. The regression results indicated that the modified gravity model could measure city contact more accurately and comprehensively than the traditional gravity model, i.e., it yielded a higher adjusted R2 value(0.379) than the traditional gravity model result(0.259). Our study also suggests that, in addition to urban-regional and metropolitan development, the complementarities of the basic functions of cities at the administrative and market levels, as well as the corporeal and immaterial levels, play very significant roles in the characterization of city contact. Given the complexity of city contact, it will be necessary to consider more relevant influential factors in the modified gravity model to characterize the features of city contact in the future. 展开更多
关键词 city contact function complementarities government intervention gravity model Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta (PRD) China
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Structural Decomposition Analysis on Energy Intensity Changes at Regional Level 被引量:1
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作者 廖华 王策 +1 位作者 朱治双 马晓微 《Transactions of Tianjin University》 EI CAS 2013年第4期287-292,共6页
As China's energy intensity fluctuated in recent years, it is necessary to examine whether this fluctuation happened at a regional level. This paper establishes a decomposition model by using the structural decomp... As China's energy intensity fluctuated in recent years, it is necessary to examine whether this fluctuation happened at a regional level. This paper establishes a decomposition model by using the structural decomposition analysis (SDA) method at a regional level. Then this model is employed to empirically analyze the changes of Beijing's energy intensity. The conclusions are as follows: during 2002-2010, except petroleum, the energy intensity decreased and the changes were mostly attributed to the technology changes, while the final use variation actually increased the energy intensity; comparing different periods of 2002-2010, the decline rates of energy intensity for coal and hydropower were decreasing, resulting from the production technology being more energy-intensive than before; the energy intensity changes of petroleum firstly increased substantially and then decreased moderately. 展开更多
关键词 structural decomposition analysis input-output analysis energy intensity
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An Interactive Model for Analyzing the Development of the Communication Discipline: Israel as a Case Study
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作者 Anat First Hanna Adoni 《Journalism and Mass Communication》 2015年第7期324-340,共17页
Our paper presents an interactive four-dimensional model for studying the long- and short-term development of the communication discipline with Israel serving as a case study: institutional-contextual, institutional-... Our paper presents an interactive four-dimensional model for studying the long- and short-term development of the communication discipline with Israel serving as a case study: institutional-contextual, institutional-in-field, intellectual-contextual, and intellectual-in-field. Our empirical analysis utilized personal interviews, archive documents, and statistical data. Four main processes were discerned: transition from integration to alienation between institutions of higher learning and the larger political and ideological context; a shift from Hebrew University Institute of Communication's institutional monopoly to a multiplicity of increasingly competitive communication schools/departments; transition from intellectual hegemony to limited intellectual diversity; and gradually improving status for the communication field among social science disciplines. Our case-study analysis validated the interactive relationship among the model's conceptual dimensions, calling for future cross-national comparisons. 展开更多
关键词 development of communication discipline interactive model conceptual dimensions limited intellectual diversity communication field in Israel
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The study of relationship between textile and garment market,industry cluster and regional economy development
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作者 Ye Hang Qu Hongjian 《International English Education Research》 2015年第3期85-90,共6页
China's textile and garment markets grown up with the development of reform and opening-up, they're well adapted to the national policy and economic environment in each period, and formed a large-scale development, ... China's textile and garment markets grown up with the development of reform and opening-up, they're well adapted to the national policy and economic environment in each period, and formed a large-scale development, played a positive role in promoting China's economy development. This paper has a research on the textile and garment market, industry cluster and regional economy, recognize textile professional market and regional economy as the main research object, industrial cluster as the intermediary variable. Establish textile and garment market, industrial cluster, regional economy as the main trunk of structural equation model and carry on the empirical analysis. From the empirical analysis, this paper find that the coefficient of textile and garment market effecting on industrial cluster is 0.91, and industrial cluster on regional economy is 0.93, that means results verify hypothesis relationships between the three of them Finally, according to each path coefficients, providing relevant suggestions for the Shanghai area development of textile and garment market, related industries cluster and regional economy development. 展开更多
关键词 textile and garment market industry cluster regional economy structural equation model SHANGHAI
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Under the Brand Based on the Relationship between the Fracture and Adjourned Perspective Pehchaolin Brand Recovery
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作者 Wang Yi Mi Lizhong 《International Journal of Technology Management》 2014年第12期33-36,共4页
This paper is mainly based on the relationship between the fractures and adjourned the brand perspective, it chooses classic domestics Pehchaolin skin care brand for study. On the basis of the relevant theoretical lit... This paper is mainly based on the relationship between the fractures and adjourned the brand perspective, it chooses classic domestics Pehchaolin skin care brand for study. On the basis of the relevant theoretical literature review on the use of empirical analysis methods for the recovery of Pehchaolin brands were analyzed to construct the Pehchaolin brand adjourned intention factors model and validate the model based on the data. Finally, based on the above analysis, some of China' s old brand development makes appropriate recommendations and marketing strategies. 展开更多
关键词 Brand Relationships Relationships Adjourned Influencing Factors Pehchaolin Domestic Brands Empirical Analysis
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Analysis and Design of Flexible Pavements by Empirical Tools
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作者 Sanjay Kumar Misra Mohammad Zafar Khan Aslam Amirahmad 《Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture》 2011年第2期130-139,共10页
This paper falls into two parts. In the first part, the widely used analytical-empirical method of pavement design and evaluation is discussed and in the second part two simulation models are presented to predict the ... This paper falls into two parts. In the first part, the widely used analytical-empirical method of pavement design and evaluation is discussed and in the second part two simulation models are presented to predict the design of flexible pavement. Analytical results are compared with simulation models. 展开更多
关键词 ELASTICITY DETERIORATION relative modulus and seasonal variation.
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How Financial Knowledge Affect Household Wealth
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作者 FAN Jingxing 《International English Education Research》 2015年第10期11-13,共3页
This paper is based on the research conducted in Shanghai. We use Probit model empirically analysis how tinanclal hteracy affect household wealth. The results are as follows: financial literacy does have positive eff... This paper is based on the research conducted in Shanghai. We use Probit model empirically analysis how tinanclal hteracy affect household wealth. The results are as follows: financial literacy does have positive effects on household financial wealth and debt, but do not have significant effect on fixed wealth. Age growth, household income growth, self-owned house and seeking for financial consultant will significantly boost household wealth. Moreover, consumer' s self-confidence and risk aversion have positive effects on both fixed and financial assets, but do not have significant effect on debt. 展开更多
关键词 Financial Literacy Household Wealth Probit Model
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