汽车共享会员出行特征及效用分析——以杭州“车纷享”为例

随着共享经济的兴起,尤其是共享单车的风靡,汽车共享也进入了蓬勃发展时期并受到了前所未有的关注,但目前对于汽车共享的认识还不够深刻和全面。在对汽车共享企业运营的订单数据和会员用车GPS数据进行研究的基础上,开展针对汽车共享会员社会经济特征和意愿的调查。调查结果表明,汽车共享会员以男性青年为主,多数家庭有车且受教育程度较高。此外,费用成本是会员始终关注的问题。大多数会员认为汽车共享可以替代家中的第二辆车,并认为汽车共享在推迟家庭购车方面起到积极作用。研究结果对汽车共享企业运营和政府实行监管策略都具有借鉴意义。

Modeling household car ownership using ordered logistic regression model

Considering both the discrete and ordered nature of the household car ownership an ordered logistic regression model to predict household car ownership is established by using the data of Nanjing Household Travel Survey in the year 2012. The model results show that some household characteristics such as the number of driver licenses household income and home location are significant.Yet the intersection density indicating the street patterns of home location and the dummy near the subway and the bus stop density indicating the transit accessibility of home location are insignificant.The model estimation obtains a good γ2 the goodness of fit of the model and the model validation also shows a good performance in prediction.The marginal effects of all the significant explanatory variables are calculated to quantify the odds change in the household car ownership following a one-unit change in the explanatory variables.