Sustainable Development of Export: Theoretical Meaning, Evaluation Model, and Empirical Research

With the effect of the human trade doctrine in the international trade field, almost all the countries have paid more attention to the sustainable development of international trade. This article chose the export sustainable development as the research object. On the basis of the analysis of the theoretical connotation of the export sustainable development, this article tried to establish an evaluation indices system and set up an evaluation model of the export sustainable development level, and finally made some empirical research on China. The result indicates that the comprehensive level of the export sustainable development in China showed a tendency to rise from 1985 to 2003 and the export sustainable development level of China in these years can be divided into four grades: excellent, good, moderate and poor. In most years, the social economic benefits of export was obtained at the cost of the deterioration of environment and the depletion of resources, and the economic profit of export did not increase with the enlargement of the export scale because of the deterioration of the terms of trade. Therefore, China should be careful about the problem of poverty accompanied by the increase of export.

Empirical Research on Correlation of Foreign Trade and Economic Growth --Taking Shanghai as an Example

Based on the statistical data of Shanghai, the paper makes empirical research on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth. The research results indicate that there is long-term dynamic and equilibrium relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, and the economic growth is the Granger cause of trade import. Since 1979, rapid growth of economy motivates the expansion of trade import, but the pulling effect of import on economic growth is not evident. In addition, trade import promotes economic growth in the long run. But we can see that from the economic data in Shanghai that the promotion has not become the source motivate force of growth for trade expert.

福建省企业和企业经营管理者权益保护条例

(2008年12月2日福建省第十一届人民代表大会常务委员会第六次会议通过)第一条为了保护企业和企业经营管理者合法权益,改善企业的经营环境,促进企业和谐健康发展,根据有关法律、法规,结合本省实际,制定本条例。第二条本省行政区域内依法设立的各类企业及其企业经营管理者合法权益保护,适用本条例。本条例所称企业经营管理者,是指依法行使企业经营管理职权并承担经营管理责任的企业主要负责人。

加强农超对接 履行社会职责

家乐福(Carrefour)成立于1959年,是大卖场业态的首创者,是欧洲第一大零售商,世界第二大国际化零售连锁集团。1998年,经国家经贸委和国家对外经济贸易合作部批准。

发挥行业办在职教育优势 服务武汉商务事业发展

在职教育是我国职业教育事业的重要组成部分,它既不同于国家教育主管部门的办学,也不同于地方政府的办学,在培养应用型高技能人才。

FORECASTING CHINA'S FOREIGN TRADE VOLUME WITH A KERNEL-BASED HYBRID ECONOMETRIC-AI ENSEMBLE LEARNING APPROACH

Due to the complexity of economic system and the interactive effects between all kinds of economic variables and foreign trade, it is not easy to predict foreign trade volume. However, the difficulty in predicting foreign trade volume is usually attributed to the limitation of many conventional forecasting models. To improve the prediction performance, the study proposes a novel kernel-based ensemble learning approach hybridizing econometric models and artificial intelligence (AI) models to predict China's foreign trade volume. In the proposed approach, an important econometric model, the co-integration-based error correction vector auto-regression (EC-VAR) model is first used to capture the impacts of all kinds of economic variables on Chinese foreign trade from a multivariate linear anal- ysis perspective. Then an artificial neural network (ANN) based EC-VAR model is used to capture the nonlinear effects of economic variables on foreign trade from the nonlinear viewpoint. Subsequently, for incorporating the effects of irregular events on foreign trade, the text mining and expert's judgmental adjustments are also integrated into the nonlinear ANN-based EC-VAR model. Finally, all kinds of economic variables, the outputs of linear and nonlinear EC-VAR models and judgmental adjustment model are used as input variables of a typical kernel-based support vector regression (SVR) for en- semble prediction purpose. For illustration, the proposed kernel-based ensemble learning methodology hybridizing econometric techniques and AI methods is applied to China's foreign trade volume predic- tion problem. Experimental results reveal that the hybrid econometric-AI ensemble learning approach can significantly improve the prediction performance over other linear and nonlinear models listed in this study.

CLAIM HEDGING IN AN INCOMPLETE MARKET

In this paper, we compare the performance of the optimal attainable payoffs (of a general claim) derived by the variance-optimal approach and the indifference argument under the mean-variance preference in an incomplete market. Both payoffs are expressed by the signed variance-optimal martingale measure. Our results are applied to the claim hedging under partial information.

Construction and Analysis of Common Foreign Trade Cycle Based on MS-VAR:An Empirical Study of Global Experience

This paper proves the co-movement of foreign trade in different countries or areas which belong to ten economic regions by MS-VAR model.The studies show that trade crisis lags behind economic crisis and spreads from the core of the economic crisis to its periphery which is closely-related with it.The trade crisis corresponding to the US subprime crisis spreads faster than before,which has struck worldwide foreign trade.In order to get the main factors affecting trade crisis,the authors construct composite indices which are proxies of economic growth and price levels of internal and external regions.The results of logistic and linear panel models show that economic growth affects more to trade cycle than price level.The results of panel models with dummy variable of trade crisis show that the outside economic growth do bad to the recovery of internal foreign trade during trade crisis corresponding to Mexican peso crisis,the Asian financial crisis and the Russian debt crisis,while the opposite is true during the internet bubble burst and the US subprime crisis.