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我国地震人员损失评估经验概率模型
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作者 吴阳 谢贤鑫 +1 位作者 余世舟 张令心 《自然灾害学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2023年第1期29-37,共9页
对地震人员伤亡的准确预测是震后救灾资源调度和救援人员分配的重要依据。基于PAGER系统中的双参数累积对数正态分布模型,分别讨论了3种建立我国地震人员损失预测模型的方法,并通过历史地震的受灾情况对其预测效果进行验证。其中,直接采... 对地震人员伤亡的准确预测是震后救灾资源调度和救援人员分配的重要依据。基于PAGER系统中的双参数累积对数正态分布模型,分别讨论了3种建立我国地震人员损失预测模型的方法,并通过历史地震的受灾情况对其预测效果进行验证。其中,直接采用PAGER系统中提供的我国参数和以极震区烈度为变量建立的预测模型的准确性均不理想。考虑到多数震害调查资料中各烈度区受灾数据的缺失,选取数据较为详实的2008年四川汶川8.0级地震,根据已知受地震影响的25个市县的人员损失总数,综合考虑烈度区面积、人口数和烈度对地震人员损失数的影响,将每个市县的人员损失总数进行分配,最终得到不同烈度区的人员死亡率和受灾人数,回归得到模型参数后,建立我国地震人员损失评估经验概率模型。经验证分析,该模型预测结果与震例结果十分接近,远好于前2种方法得到的预测模型。同时,该模型的残差频率的正态性较好,根据预测结果建议的地震应急响应级别均与震例的实际情况相符。 展开更多
关键词 地震人员损失 预测模型 地震烈度 双参数累积对数正态分布函数 经验回归
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110kV及以上变电站地震易损性研究
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作者 刘如山 闫路鹏 +2 位作者 姜立新 刘金龙 张俊杰 《中国地震》 北大核心 2023年第2期290-298,共9页
本文提出了根据变电站内高压电气设备和房屋建筑的地震破坏状态计算变电站震害指数的方法,统计了2008年汶川8.0级大地震中成都、绵阳、德阳、广元、阿坝地区国家电网的121座110kV及以上变电站的震害情况,通过震害指数进行了震害等级评... 本文提出了根据变电站内高压电气设备和房屋建筑的地震破坏状态计算变电站震害指数的方法,统计了2008年汶川8.0级大地震中成都、绵阳、德阳、广元、阿坝地区国家电网的121座110kV及以上变电站的震害情况,通过震害指数进行了震害等级评价。采用对数正态分布的累积函数,拟合了变电站基于峰值加速度的地震易损性曲线。计算结果表明:当地震烈度在Ⅶ度及以下时,变电站和输电线路只有基本完好和轻微破坏状态,不发生中等及以上等级的破坏;当地震烈度为Ⅷ度时,有变电站开始出现严重破坏状态;当烈度达到Ⅸ度时,有少量变电站发生严重破坏,多数为中等破坏;当烈度为X度及以上时,多数变电站达到严重破坏和毁坏。 展开更多
关键词 变电站 汶川8.0级地震 震害指数 对数正态分布累积函数 地震易损性曲线
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混合自由空间光通信网络的光学矩阵计算与优化
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作者 徐小琪 《新余学院学报》 2023年第4期37-42,共6页
自由空间光通信网络受到大气中不同湍流影响,传输信号质量较低,由此提出一种混合自由空间光通信网络的光学矩阵计算与优化方法。通过统计大气湍流特征,采用平滑微扰法分析信号经过大气湍流时的偏差;利用对数正态分布函数以及负指数分布... 自由空间光通信网络受到大气中不同湍流影响,传输信号质量较低,由此提出一种混合自由空间光通信网络的光学矩阵计算与优化方法。通过统计大气湍流特征,采用平滑微扰法分析信号经过大气湍流时的偏差;利用对数正态分布函数以及负指数分布形式,构建混合自由空间光通信网络信道模型;调制光纤光栅折射率,采用光学矩阵将非均匀的光栅划分成小段,通过分段均匀处理,将相邻两段首尾相接,获得整体光纤光栅滤波的传递函数,完成光学矩阵计算与优化。实验证明该方法的通信优化结果与理想结果几乎相同,能够满足现实网络通信需求。 展开更多
关键词 混合自由空间 对数正态分布函数 大气湍流 光通信网络 光学矩阵
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脉冲CO2激光气相合成大尺寸硅团簇的研究
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作者 阎逢旗 张为俊 +3 位作者 程平 季明 高晓明 王沛 《洛阳大学学报》 1999年第1期+58-63,共页
利用脉冲CO_2激光气相合成了大尺寸的硅团簇sin(n~103),并对其生长机理进行了初步研究。大尺寸硅团簇Sin(n~640)的飞行时间质谱可用对数正态分布函数很好地拟合,分析表明其结构由小尺寸硅团簇丰富多样趋向于... 利用脉冲CO_2激光气相合成了大尺寸的硅团簇sin(n~103),并对其生长机理进行了初步研究。大尺寸硅团簇Sin(n~640)的飞行时间质谱可用对数正态分布函数很好地拟合,分析表明其结构由小尺寸硅团簇丰富多样趋向于简单化。 展开更多
关键词 团簇 激光气相合成 飞行时间质谱 对数正态分布函数
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科技文献出版延迟对文献时效规律的影响
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作者 杨静 邹梅 《情报科学》 CSSCI 2000年第12期1062-1063,共2页
本文将文献稳态时效规律与出版延迟规律视为对数正态分布函数 ,并对其进行数学分析处理 ,给出了两者共同作用下的文献时效规律曲线。
关键词 科技文献 出版延迟 时效规律 对数正态分布函数
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FeCo-Al_2O_3颗粒膜隧穿磁电阻的颗粒尺寸效应
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作者 郑立波 张培明 +1 位作者 王长征 肖效光 《山东师范大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS 2008年第3期54-57,64,共5页
利用磁控溅射仪制备了一系列的FeCo-Al2O3颗粒膜.分别通过传统的四探针方法和透射电镜(高分辨电镜)研究了FeCo-Al2O3颗粒膜的隧穿磁电阻和纳米颗粒结构.结果表明:当FeCo的体积分数约为32.8%时,FeCo-Al2O3颗粒膜的隧穿磁电阻达到最大值,... 利用磁控溅射仪制备了一系列的FeCo-Al2O3颗粒膜.分别通过传统的四探针方法和透射电镜(高分辨电镜)研究了FeCo-Al2O3颗粒膜的隧穿磁电阻和纳米颗粒结构.结果表明:当FeCo的体积分数约为32.8%时,FeCo-Al2O3颗粒膜的隧穿磁电阻达到最大值,约为6.9%,该值为目前所报道的在室温和外磁场为12.5KOe下测量得到的最高值.电镜观察表明在FeCo-Al2O3颗粒膜中,bcc结构或非晶态的FeCo颗粒弥散分布在晶态或非晶态的Al2O3基体中.根据电镜观察结果得到颗粒膜的尺寸分布,经过尺寸拟合发现对于FeCo颗粒体积分数较小的颗粒膜,FeCo颗粒的分布满足对数-正态分布函数,而当颗粒膜中的FeCo颗粒体积分数较大时,FeCo颗粒的分布就严重的偏离了对数-正态分布函数.同时,实验结果表明:颗粒膜的隧穿磁电阻随颗粒尺寸呈现出非单调的变化,在一中间尺寸达到最大值. 展开更多
关键词 磁控溅射 颗粒膜 隧穿磁电阻 颗粒尺寸 对数-正态分布函数
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Study on Probability Distributions of Multi-Timescale Aerosol Optical Depth Using AERONET Data
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作者 WU Lin ZENG Qing-Cun 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2011年第4期216-222,共7页
The probability distribution analysis is per-formed for multi-timescale aerosol optical depth (AOD) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 data.The maximum likelihood estimation is employed to determine the... The probability distribution analysis is per-formed for multi-timescale aerosol optical depth (AOD) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 data.The maximum likelihood estimation is employed to determine the best-fit probability density function (PDF),and the statement that the fitting Weibull distribution will be light-tailed is proved true for these AOD samples.The best-fit PDF results for multi-site data show that the PDF of AOD samples with longer timescale in most sites tends to be stably represented by lognormal distribution,while Weibull distribution is a better fit for AOD samples with short timescales.The reason for this difference is ana-lyzed through tail characteristics of the two distributions,and an indicator for the selection between Weibull and lognormal distributions is suggested and validated.The result of this research is helpful for determining the most accurate AOD statistics for a given site and a given time-scale and for validating the retrieved AOD through its PDF. 展开更多
关键词 aerosol optical depth multi-timescale probability density function AERONET
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Variation in entrainment rate and relationship with cloud microphysical properties on the scale of 5m
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作者 程穆宁 陆春松 刘延刚 《Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第7期707-717,M0004,共12页
This paper focuses on the variability in entrainment rate in individual cumulus clouds using the entrainment rate estimated on the scale of 5 m in 186 shallow cumulus clouds from eight aircraft flights, using in situ ... This paper focuses on the variability in entrainment rate in individual cumulus clouds using the entrainment rate estimated on the scale of 5 m in 186 shallow cumulus clouds from eight aircraft flights, using in situ observations from the RACORO field campaign (the routine atmospheric radiation measurement aerial facility clouds with low optical water depths optical radiative observations) over the atmospheric radiation measurement Southern Great Plains site, USA. The result shows that the mean entrainment rate of all the 186 clouds systematically decreases from the cloud edge to the cloud center. Further analysis of the fluctuation of entrainment rate shows that the probability density function of entrainment rate in each flight can be fitted by the lognormal, gamma, or Weibull distributions virtually equally well, with the Weibull dis- tribution being the best. The parameter "standard devia- tion" in the lognormal distribution is weakly negatively correlated, and the other parameters in the three distribu- tions are positively correlated with relative humidity in the entrained dry air and dilution effect, respectively. Entrainment rate is negatively correlated with droplet concentration, droplet size, and liquid water content, but positively correlated with relative dispersion. The effect of entrainment rate on the spectral shape of cloud droplet size distribution is examined and linked to the systems theory on the cloud droplet size distribution. 展开更多
关键词 Entrainment rate Shallow cumulus Aircraft observations Probability density functionsMicrophysics
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Two-step sampling can produce triphasic species-area relationship
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作者 Xubin Pan 《Journal of Plant Ecology》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第4期673-678,共6页
Aims It is important to explore the underlying mechanisms that cause triphasic species–area relationship(triphasic SAR)across different scales in order to understand the spatial patterns of biodiversity.Methods Inste... Aims It is important to explore the underlying mechanisms that cause triphasic species–area relationship(triphasic SAR)across different scales in order to understand the spatial patterns of biodiversity.Methods Instead of theory establishment or field data derivation,I adopted a data simulation method that used the power function of SAR to fit log-normal distribution of species abundance.Important Findings The results showed that one-step sampling caused biphasic SAR and n-step sampling could cause 2n-phasic SAR.Practical two-step sampling produced triphasic SAR due to the Preston and Pan effects in large areas.Furthermore,before exploring biological or ecological mechanisms for the nature phenomenon,we should identify or exclude potential mathematical,statistical or sampling reasons. 展开更多
关键词 log-normal distribution power function of SAR species abundance distribution one-step sampling mathematical induction
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350 μm map of the Ophiuchus molecular cloud: core mass function
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作者 ZHANG GuoYin LI Di +3 位作者 HYDE Ashley K QIAN Lei LYU HuaLei WU ZhongZu 《Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy)》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第2期114-124,共11页
Stars are born in dense cores of molecular clouds. The core mass function (CMF), which is the mass distribution of dense cores, is important for understanding the stellar initial mass function (IMF). We obtained ... Stars are born in dense cores of molecular clouds. The core mass function (CMF), which is the mass distribution of dense cores, is important for understanding the stellar initial mass function (IMF). We obtained 350μm dust continuum data using the SHARC-II camera at the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory (CSO) telescope. A 350μm map covering 0.25 deg2 of the Ophiuchus molecular cloud was created by mosaicing 56 separate scans. The CSO telescope had an angular resolution of 9", corresponding to 1.2 ×103 AU at the distance of the Ophiuchus molecular cloud (131 pc). The data was reduced using the Comprehensive Reduction Utility for SHARC-II (CRUSH). The flux density map was analyzed using the GaussClumps algorithm, within which 75 cores has been identified. We used the Spitzer c2d catalogs to separate the cores into 63 starless cores and 12 protostellar cores. By locating Jeans instabilities, 55 prestellar cores (a subcategory of starless cores) were also identified. The excitation temperatures, which were derived from FCRAO 12CO data, help to improve the accuracy of the masses of the cores. We adopted a Monte Carlo approach to analyze the CMF with two types of functional forms; power law and log-normal. The whole and prestellar CMF are both well fitted by a log-normal distribution, with p = -1. 18 ±0.10, σ = 0.58 ± 0.05 and μ= 1.40 + 0.10, σ= 0.50 + 0.05 respectively. This finding suggests that turbulence influences the evolution of the Ophiuchus molecular cloud. 展开更多
关键词 1SM molecular clouds OPHIUCHUS CMF
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