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利用收入分布曲线预测中国汽车保有量 被引量:32
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作者 沈中元 《中国能源》 2006年第8期11-15,46,共6页
急速增长的中国汽车保有量不仅和收入水平的上升有关,也和收入差距的扩大有关,为了同时考虑这两个影响汽车普及的重要因素,本文以对数正态分布曲线作为收入分布曲线构建了中国汽车保有量的预测模型。预测结果显示,2030年家用汽车保有量... 急速增长的中国汽车保有量不仅和收入水平的上升有关,也和收入差距的扩大有关,为了同时考虑这两个影响汽车普及的重要因素,本文以对数正态分布曲线作为收入分布曲线构建了中国汽车保有量的预测模型。预测结果显示,2030年家用汽车保有量将达到1.47亿辆,汽车总的保有量将达到2.28亿辆,不断增长的中国汽车保有量说明中国在汽车领域加强节能和环境保护工作的意义越来越重要。本文也利用了预测模型易于扩展的特点,进行了4种不同的情景分析,考察了影响汽车普及的几个主要因素。 展开更多
关键词 对数正态分布曲线 收入分布曲线 逻辑曲线 基尼系数 汽车保有量 家用汽车
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Gillnet Selectivity and Length at Maturity of Nile Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus L.) in a Tropical Reservoir (Amerti: Ethiopia)
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作者 Mathewos Hailu 《Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology(A)》 2014年第2期135-140,共6页
The selectivity of gillnets for Oreochromis niloticus in Amerti reservoir (9°63′ N, 37°23′ E) was determined from gillnets with four mesh sizes (60, 80, 100 and 120 mm). Four selectivity models (a nor... The selectivity of gillnets for Oreochromis niloticus in Amerti reservoir (9°63′ N, 37°23′ E) was determined from gillnets with four mesh sizes (60, 80, 100 and 120 mm). Four selectivity models (a normal model assuming fixed spread, a normal model assuming that spread is proportional to mesh size, a lognormal model and a gamma model) were fitted to the data by using the share each length's catch total (SELECT) method. A total of 657 specimens of Oreochromis niloticus were caught (12.0-35.5 cm total length, TD. The sizes at first sexual maturity were 21.5 cm TL and 18.9 cm TL, respectively, for male and female Oreochromis niloticus. The lognormal selectivity curve provided the best fit to the data according to model deviance estimates with optimum selectivity of 16.66, 22.26, 27.78 and 33.38 cm TL for the 60, 80, 100 and 120 mm mesh sizes, respectively. 展开更多
关键词 GILLNET mesh selectivity Nile tilapia SELECT
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