Fatigue characteristics of A7N01 aluminium alloy welded joint were investigated and a fatigue crack initiation life-based model was proposed. The difference of fatigue crack initiation life among base metal, weld meta...Fatigue characteristics of A7N01 aluminium alloy welded joint were investigated and a fatigue crack initiation life-based model was proposed. The difference of fatigue crack initiation life among base metal, weld metal and heat affected zone (HAZ) is slight. Furthermore, the ratio of fatigue crack initiation life (Ni) to fatigue life to failure(Nf) is a material dependent parameter, 26.32%, 40.21% and 60.67% for base metal, HAZ and weld metal, respectively. Total fatigue life predicted using the presented model is in good agreement with the experimental data and that using Basquin’s model. The observation results of fatigue fracture surfaces, using scanning electron microscope (SEM), demonstrate that fatigue crack initiates from smooth surface due to welding process for weld metal, blowhole in HAZ causes fatigue crack initiation, and the crushed second phase particles play an important part in fatigue crack initiation in base metal.展开更多
The use of vacuum interrupters(VIs)as the current interruption component for switches,circuit breakers,reclosers and contactors operating at distribution voltages has escalated since their introduction in the mid-1950...The use of vacuum interrupters(VIs)as the current interruption component for switches,circuit breakers,reclosers and contactors operating at distribution voltages has escalated since their introduction in the mid-1950’s.This electrical product has developed a dominating position for switching and protecting distribution circuits.VIs are even being introduced into switching products operating at transmission voltages.Among the reasons for the VI’s popularity are its compactness,its range of application,its low cost,its superb electrical and mechanical life and its ease of application.Its major advantage is its well-established reliability.In this paper we show how this reliability has been achieved by design,by mechanical life testing and by electrical performance testing.We introduce the“sealed for life”concept for the VI’s integrity.We discuss this in terms of what is meant by a practical leak rate for VIs with a life of over 30 years.We show that a simple high voltage withstand test is an easy and effective method for monitoring the long-term vacuum integrity.Finally we evaluate the need for routine inspection of this electrical product when it is used in adverse ambient environments.展开更多
Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the fail...Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the failure threshold has not been studied thoroughly. In this work, by using the truncated normal distribution to model random failure threshold(RFT), an analytical and closed-form RUL distribution based on the current observed data was derived considering the posterior distribution of the drift parameter. Then, the Bayesian method was used to update the prior estimation of failure threshold. To solve the uncertainty of the censored in situ data of failure threshold, the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm is used to calculate the posteriori estimation of failure threshold. Numerical examples show that considering the randomness of the failure threshold and updating the prior information of RFT could improve the accuracy of real time RUL estimation.展开更多
Reliability and remaining useful life(RUL)estimation for a satellite rechargeable lithium battery(RLB)are significant for prognostic and health management(PHM).A novel Bayesian framework is proposed to do reliability ...Reliability and remaining useful life(RUL)estimation for a satellite rechargeable lithium battery(RLB)are significant for prognostic and health management(PHM).A novel Bayesian framework is proposed to do reliability analysis by synthesizing multisource data,including bivariate degradation data and lifetime data.Bivariate degradation means that there are two degraded performance characteristics leading to the failure of the system.First,linear Wiener process and Frank Copula function are used to model the dependent degradation processes of the RLB's temperature and discharge voltage.Next,the Bayesian method,in combination with Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)simulations,is provided to integrate limited bivariate degradation data with other congeneric RLBs'lifetime data.Then reliability evaluation and RUL prediction are carried out for PHM.A simulation study demonstrates that due to the data fusion,parameter estimations and predicted RUL obtained from our model are more precise than models only using degradation data or ignoring the dependency of different degradation processes.Finally,a practical case study of a satellite RLB verifies the usability of the model.展开更多
The fatigue life of top tensioned risers under vortex-induced vibrations (VIVs) with consideration of the effect of internal flowing fluid on the riser is analyzed in the time domain.The long-term stress histories of ...The fatigue life of top tensioned risers under vortex-induced vibrations (VIVs) with consideration of the effect of internal flowing fluid on the riser is analyzed in the time domain.The long-term stress histories of the riser under VIVs are calculated and the mean stresses,the number of stress cycles and amplitudes are determined by the rainflow counting method.The Palmgren-Miner rule for cumulative damage theory with a specified S-N curve is used to estimate the fatigue life of the riser.The corresponding numerical programs numerical simulation of vortex-induced vibrations (NSVIV) which can be used to calculate the VIV response and fatigue life of the riser are compiled.Finally the influences of the riser's parameters such as flexural rigidity,top tension and internal flow velocity on the fatigue life of the riser are analyzed in detail and some conclusions are drawn.展开更多
Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degrad...Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degradation process, the measurement error is not considered and forecasting uncertainty is large. Therefore, an approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process with measurement errors was proposed. The maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to estimate the unknown fixed parameters in the proposed model. When the newly observed data are available, the random parameter is updated by the Bayesian method to make the estimation adapt to the item's individual characteristic and reduce the uncertainty of the estimation. The simulation results show that considering measurement errors in the degradation process can significantly improve the accuracy of real time RUL prediction.展开更多
A service life model of NAND flash and threshold voltage shift process is proposed to calculate the service life and endurance.The relationships among achievable program/erase(P/E) cycles,recovery time,bad block rate ...A service life model of NAND flash and threshold voltage shift process is proposed to calculate the service life and endurance.The relationships among achievable program/erase(P/E) cycles,recovery time,bad block rate and storage time are analyzed.The achievable endurance and service life of a NAND flash are evaluated based on a flash cell degradation and recovery model by varying recovery time,badblock rate,and storage time.It is proposed to improve the service lifetime of solid state disk by both relaxing the bad block rate limitation and retention time while extending the recovery time.The results indicate that endurance can be improved by 17 times if the storage time guarantee is reduced from 10 a to 1 a with 105 s recovery time inserted between cycles.展开更多
Many researchers have concluded that longer life expectancies prompt increased investment in education,as a prolonged labor supply raises the rate of return on education.Besides explaining the empirical evidence behin...Many researchers have concluded that longer life expectancies prompt increased investment in education,as a prolonged labor supply raises the rate of return on education.Besides explaining the empirical evidence behind this conclusion(at an absolute level),there is another issue to be discussed:does time spent studying and working increase proportionally with higher longevity? Building on an extended life-cycle model,this paper shows that prolonged life expectancy will cause individuals to increase their time in education but may not warrant rises in labor input.Later we show that higher improvement rate of longevity rather than initial life expectancy will promote economic growth,even we exclude the mechanism of human capital formation,and only consider growth effects of higher improvement rate of life expectancy from physical capital investment.展开更多
An analysis applied to an existing building considering the whole service life, regulated or, if any, measured, of energy/technological upgrading action does not only require initial investments to be taken into accou...An analysis applied to an existing building considering the whole service life, regulated or, if any, measured, of energy/technological upgrading action does not only require initial investments to be taken into account. Of course, such investments are significant and will have to be considered at a first stage, but it is not the only aspect to be considered. Provisions of Construction Procurement Guidance, No.7 Whole Life Costs state: "All procurement must be made solely on the basis of value for money in terms of the optimum combination of global costs--and not only initial investment costs--and quality to meet the user's requirements".展开更多
One of the main contemporary problems requiring urgent attention since its present and future repercussions on particular countries is the decrease of population and related problems of population ageing. The populati...One of the main contemporary problems requiring urgent attention since its present and future repercussions on particular countries is the decrease of population and related problems of population ageing. The population ageing is not a worldwide problem yet, it concerns mostly world developed countries. On the other hand, it is a known fact that the population ageing in developing countries will culminate in few decades and will be more dramatic as the current population ageing in the developed world. In the developed countries, the population ageing is cause by the prolonged human life and the decrease of natality. This trend is resulting from many factors that are related to the modernization of the society which caused the decrease in fertility and natality. The health care improvement resulted in the prolonged life expectancy and a better health condition of the population. The science advance prolonged the average life expectancy which is the main reason for the population ageing.展开更多
The use of batteries in UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) has become common due to some advantages in comparison with internal combustion engines such as weight reduction and better power control. However, in these ve...The use of batteries in UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) has become common due to some advantages in comparison with internal combustion engines such as weight reduction and better power control. However, in these vehicles it is critical to monitor the RUL (remaining useful life) of the batteries. This information can be used, for instance, as a decision support tool to define which missions could be assigned to the UAV until the next battery recharge. This work presents a methodology to predict the RUL of Li-Po (Lithium-Polymer) batteries. The approach uses an extended Kalman filter and an exponential model for the degradation evolution. The proposed methodology uses time series of battery terminal voltages, assuming that the discharge occurs under a constant current condition. Different discharge current levels were considered.The results showed that the proposed methodology provides good results, despite its simplicity.展开更多
Products with long life-spans are generally acknowledged to have a significant contribution towards sustainability. This paper provides an overview and discussion of the two years results of a longitudinal study perfo...Products with long life-spans are generally acknowledged to have a significant contribution towards sustainability. This paper provides an overview and discussion of the two years results of a longitudinal study performed with users and several cork products. The research aimed to tackle the process of life-span, and the results include: (1) the identification and interrelation of the aspects influencing the life-span of the products; (2) the evolution of life-span over time; and (3) new knowledge and guidelines arising about the material. Overall, most cork products are still being used, have a very good life-span, and most issues arising are material related.展开更多
Flexible lithium ion batteries (LIBs) have recently attracted increasing attention as they show unique promising advantages, such as flexibility, shape diversity, and light weight. Similar to conventional LIBs, flex...Flexible lithium ion batteries (LIBs) have recently attracted increasing attention as they show unique promising advantages, such as flexibility, shape diversity, and light weight. Similar to conventional LIBs, flexible LIBs with long cycle life and high-rate performance are very important for applications of high performance flexible electronics. Herein, we report a three-dimensional (3D) web-like binderfree Li4Ti5O12 (LTO) anode assembled from numerous 1D nanowires exhibiting excellent cycling performance with high capacities of 153 and 115 mA·h·g^-1 after 5,000 cycles at 2 C and 20 C, respectively, and excellent rate property with a capacity of 103 mA·h·g^-1 even at a very high current rate of 80 C. Surprisingly, a flexible full battery assembled from the web-like LTO nanostructure and LiMn2O4 (LMO) nanorods exhibited a high capacity of 125 mA·h·g^-1 at high current rate of 20 C, and showed excellent flexibility with little performance degradation even in seriously bent states.展开更多
Success-failure life tests are widely used in reliability engineering research to evaluate the storage life of products, where the observed data are the current status data, usually summarized as the form of "binomia...Success-failure life tests are widely used in reliability engineering research to evaluate the storage life of products, where the observed data are the current status data, usually summarized as the form of "binomial life data". For this type of data, this paper proposes a two-stage algorithm to estimate some commonly used lifetime distributions. This Mgorithm is automatic, intuitively appealing and simple to implement. Simulation studies show that compared with some existing methods, the proposed algorithm is more stable and efficient, especially in small sample situations, and it can also be extended to deM with some complicated lifetime distributions.展开更多
文摘Fatigue characteristics of A7N01 aluminium alloy welded joint were investigated and a fatigue crack initiation life-based model was proposed. The difference of fatigue crack initiation life among base metal, weld metal and heat affected zone (HAZ) is slight. Furthermore, the ratio of fatigue crack initiation life (Ni) to fatigue life to failure(Nf) is a material dependent parameter, 26.32%, 40.21% and 60.67% for base metal, HAZ and weld metal, respectively. Total fatigue life predicted using the presented model is in good agreement with the experimental data and that using Basquin’s model. The observation results of fatigue fracture surfaces, using scanning electron microscope (SEM), demonstrate that fatigue crack initiates from smooth surface due to welding process for weld metal, blowhole in HAZ causes fatigue crack initiation, and the crushed second phase particles play an important part in fatigue crack initiation in base metal.
文摘The use of vacuum interrupters(VIs)as the current interruption component for switches,circuit breakers,reclosers and contactors operating at distribution voltages has escalated since their introduction in the mid-1950’s.This electrical product has developed a dominating position for switching and protecting distribution circuits.VIs are even being introduced into switching products operating at transmission voltages.Among the reasons for the VI’s popularity are its compactness,its range of application,its low cost,its superb electrical and mechanical life and its ease of application.Its major advantage is its well-established reliability.In this paper we show how this reliability has been achieved by design,by mechanical life testing and by electrical performance testing.We introduce the“sealed for life”concept for the VI’s integrity.We discuss this in terms of what is meant by a practical leak rate for VIs with a life of over 30 years.We show that a simple high voltage withstand test is an easy and effective method for monitoring the long-term vacuum integrity.Finally we evaluate the need for routine inspection of this electrical product when it is used in adverse ambient environments.
基金Projects(51475462,61174030,61473094,61374126)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the failure threshold has not been studied thoroughly. In this work, by using the truncated normal distribution to model random failure threshold(RFT), an analytical and closed-form RUL distribution based on the current observed data was derived considering the posterior distribution of the drift parameter. Then, the Bayesian method was used to update the prior estimation of failure threshold. To solve the uncertainty of the censored in situ data of failure threshold, the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm is used to calculate the posteriori estimation of failure threshold. Numerical examples show that considering the randomness of the failure threshold and updating the prior information of RFT could improve the accuracy of real time RUL estimation.
基金Project(71371182) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Reliability and remaining useful life(RUL)estimation for a satellite rechargeable lithium battery(RLB)are significant for prognostic and health management(PHM).A novel Bayesian framework is proposed to do reliability analysis by synthesizing multisource data,including bivariate degradation data and lifetime data.Bivariate degradation means that there are two degraded performance characteristics leading to the failure of the system.First,linear Wiener process and Frank Copula function are used to model the dependent degradation processes of the RLB's temperature and discharge voltage.Next,the Bayesian method,in combination with Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)simulations,is provided to integrate limited bivariate degradation data with other congeneric RLBs'lifetime data.Then reliability evaluation and RUL prediction are carried out for PHM.A simulation study demonstrates that due to the data fusion,parameter estimations and predicted RUL obtained from our model are more precise than models only using degradation data or ignoring the dependency of different degradation processes.Finally,a practical case study of a satellite RLB verifies the usability of the model.
基金supported by the High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program,Grant Nos.2006AA09Z356 and 2007AA09Z313)
文摘The fatigue life of top tensioned risers under vortex-induced vibrations (VIVs) with consideration of the effect of internal flowing fluid on the riser is analyzed in the time domain.The long-term stress histories of the riser under VIVs are calculated and the mean stresses,the number of stress cycles and amplitudes are determined by the rainflow counting method.The Palmgren-Miner rule for cumulative damage theory with a specified S-N curve is used to estimate the fatigue life of the riser.The corresponding numerical programs numerical simulation of vortex-induced vibrations (NSVIV) which can be used to calculate the VIV response and fatigue life of the riser are compiled.Finally the influences of the riser's parameters such as flexural rigidity,top tension and internal flow velocity on the fatigue life of the riser are analyzed in detail and some conclusions are drawn.
基金Projects(51475462,61374138,61370031)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degradation process, the measurement error is not considered and forecasting uncertainty is large. Therefore, an approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process with measurement errors was proposed. The maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to estimate the unknown fixed parameters in the proposed model. When the newly observed data are available, the random parameter is updated by the Bayesian method to make the estimation adapt to the item's individual characteristic and reduce the uncertainty of the estimation. The simulation results show that considering measurement errors in the degradation process can significantly improve the accuracy of real time RUL prediction.
基金Project(61171017)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A service life model of NAND flash and threshold voltage shift process is proposed to calculate the service life and endurance.The relationships among achievable program/erase(P/E) cycles,recovery time,bad block rate and storage time are analyzed.The achievable endurance and service life of a NAND flash are evaluated based on a flash cell degradation and recovery model by varying recovery time,badblock rate,and storage time.It is proposed to improve the service lifetime of solid state disk by both relaxing the bad block rate limitation and retention time while extending the recovery time.The results indicate that endurance can be improved by 17 times if the storage time guarantee is reduced from 10 a to 1 a with 105 s recovery time inserted between cycles.
基金the POS DOC Research Fund(Grant No. 05646997) which is sponsored by the Shorenstein AsiaPacific Research Center at Stanford University
文摘Many researchers have concluded that longer life expectancies prompt increased investment in education,as a prolonged labor supply raises the rate of return on education.Besides explaining the empirical evidence behind this conclusion(at an absolute level),there is another issue to be discussed:does time spent studying and working increase proportionally with higher longevity? Building on an extended life-cycle model,this paper shows that prolonged life expectancy will cause individuals to increase their time in education but may not warrant rises in labor input.Later we show that higher improvement rate of longevity rather than initial life expectancy will promote economic growth,even we exclude the mechanism of human capital formation,and only consider growth effects of higher improvement rate of life expectancy from physical capital investment.
文摘An analysis applied to an existing building considering the whole service life, regulated or, if any, measured, of energy/technological upgrading action does not only require initial investments to be taken into account. Of course, such investments are significant and will have to be considered at a first stage, but it is not the only aspect to be considered. Provisions of Construction Procurement Guidance, No.7 Whole Life Costs state: "All procurement must be made solely on the basis of value for money in terms of the optimum combination of global costs--and not only initial investment costs--and quality to meet the user's requirements".
文摘One of the main contemporary problems requiring urgent attention since its present and future repercussions on particular countries is the decrease of population and related problems of population ageing. The population ageing is not a worldwide problem yet, it concerns mostly world developed countries. On the other hand, it is a known fact that the population ageing in developing countries will culminate in few decades and will be more dramatic as the current population ageing in the developed world. In the developed countries, the population ageing is cause by the prolonged human life and the decrease of natality. This trend is resulting from many factors that are related to the modernization of the society which caused the decrease in fertility and natality. The health care improvement resulted in the prolonged life expectancy and a better health condition of the population. The science advance prolonged the average life expectancy which is the main reason for the population ageing.
文摘The use of batteries in UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) has become common due to some advantages in comparison with internal combustion engines such as weight reduction and better power control. However, in these vehicles it is critical to monitor the RUL (remaining useful life) of the batteries. This information can be used, for instance, as a decision support tool to define which missions could be assigned to the UAV until the next battery recharge. This work presents a methodology to predict the RUL of Li-Po (Lithium-Polymer) batteries. The approach uses an extended Kalman filter and an exponential model for the degradation evolution. The proposed methodology uses time series of battery terminal voltages, assuming that the discharge occurs under a constant current condition. Different discharge current levels were considered.The results showed that the proposed methodology provides good results, despite its simplicity.
文摘Products with long life-spans are generally acknowledged to have a significant contribution towards sustainability. This paper provides an overview and discussion of the two years results of a longitudinal study performed with users and several cork products. The research aimed to tackle the process of life-span, and the results include: (1) the identification and interrelation of the aspects influencing the life-span of the products; (2) the evolution of life-span over time; and (3) new knowledge and guidelines arising about the material. Overall, most cork products are still being used, have a very good life-span, and most issues arising are material related.
文摘Flexible lithium ion batteries (LIBs) have recently attracted increasing attention as they show unique promising advantages, such as flexibility, shape diversity, and light weight. Similar to conventional LIBs, flexible LIBs with long cycle life and high-rate performance are very important for applications of high performance flexible electronics. Herein, we report a three-dimensional (3D) web-like binderfree Li4Ti5O12 (LTO) anode assembled from numerous 1D nanowires exhibiting excellent cycling performance with high capacities of 153 and 115 mA·h·g^-1 after 5,000 cycles at 2 C and 20 C, respectively, and excellent rate property with a capacity of 103 mA·h·g^-1 even at a very high current rate of 80 C. Surprisingly, a flexible full battery assembled from the web-like LTO nanostructure and LiMn2O4 (LMO) nanorods exhibited a high capacity of 125 mA·h·g^-1 at high current rate of 20 C, and showed excellent flexibility with little performance degradation even in seriously bent states.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 11001097
文摘Success-failure life tests are widely used in reliability engineering research to evaluate the storage life of products, where the observed data are the current status data, usually summarized as the form of "binomial life data". For this type of data, this paper proposes a two-stage algorithm to estimate some commonly used lifetime distributions. This Mgorithm is automatic, intuitively appealing and simple to implement. Simulation studies show that compared with some existing methods, the proposed algorithm is more stable and efficient, especially in small sample situations, and it can also be extended to deM with some complicated lifetime distributions.